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A Lesson In Inflation


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Proven reserves are becoming ... unproven.  Is this progress?

 

Shell Cuts 'Proven' Reserves

After Reassessing Projects

Value of Oil and Gas Reserves Reduced by 20%

LONDON -- The Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Cos. said Friday that it is downgrading the categorization of 20% of its "proven" oil and gas reserves after reassessing the maturity of some of its projects.

 

Shell said it was recategorizing 3.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent -- or 20% of proved reserves as stated at Dec. 31, 2002. They were being reclassified as "scope for recovery," spokesman Andy Corrigan said.

 

The new category means that although the same volume of hydrocarbons is believed to be present, the development of the projects is not mature enough for them to qualify as proved reserves.

progress is found in the trunk of a toyota prius? or a chinese panda prius?

 

proven, probable and projected. the numbers do not lie, people do.

 

someone had better invent a nookclear powered "ginger".

 

25 years or so?

 

interesting how that russia pipline deal wafts back n forth between japan

and china.

 

china & japan are fighting over oil from remote east siberian fields that russia is

readying for development.

 

billions on a pipeline that will make ours look tiny.

 

japan and china are fighting over where that pipeline will go.

 

china's industrial heartland, or to a new deep-water oil terminal one day?s tanker

cruise from the land of the setting sun.

 

china is slated to overtake japan as the world's second largest oil consumer late

next year and surpass us by 2030.

 

amazing, but i doubt japan's going to gain the upper hand, the demand pull

dynamics are too obvious. they'll be placated, of course, having kicked in

billions in dollars... but then again... follow the money.

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if non-residential fixed investment as a % of GDP is a proxy for corporate spending...

 

cap-ex cuts should widen to extreme's not seen since the big one.

 

may / june should be about right.

 

the most recent round of debt & equity stuffage is truly without precedent.

 

risk isn't being offloaded into out-space, it's merely shifted more of that load

to you and i. well, in truth, a greater load has been placed on those unhedged.

 

but, in any event, this transfer effect should begin to quickly manifest itself in

the cyclicals, and perhaps that is the last gasp we are witnessing in the transports.

 

for all the criminality, corporations recognize the broader impacts.

 

it's difficult to envision the most recetn dramatic decline in durables as healthy.

 

the market is a discounting mechanism, or so it is said.

 

what do you see when you look out ahead six months?

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