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Weekend Update:

 

This market continues to play havoc with my systems and many others it seems.

Traditional measures have us Dover Sole here and a bounce of some substance due.

Also we are soon entering the seasonal strength period of Nov-May.

 

But market action has been the sickliest all year and my HOM system is now on a

SELL with a moderately bearish configuration.

 

I really thought we were about to make a plunge and had better expectations for the CT signal but this market did not cooperate as usual and I am really at the point of completely giving up on trying to make any anticipation intermediate term on what this thing will do. Just going to post my signals and trade them and maybe make a few comments but forget even trying to guess at anything. We are in a big messy consolidation both LT and IT from which anything can happen in the SP.

 

Much easier to "predict" once LT trends are in place such as in OIL.

HUI still needs to make a break from it's prior high and confirm POG for me to

feel good about it's renewed potential.

 

So for now:

 

HOM = SELL

CT = CASH

 

 

Have great weekend everyone!

 

Hank

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Just going to post my signals and trade them and maybe make a few comments but forget even trying to guess at anything

 

HOM switches to BUY for open 10-20-2005.

 

CT signals BUY for the open 10-20-2005.

 

We will be opening a long position in QQQQ at the open tomorrow unless the

futures are down sharply.

 

Hank

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Is there a reason you do not post on the other threads. I am looking to sell my calls tamale and reshort based on EW and general stupidity.

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OK we are LONG QQQQ at 38.71.

Despite todays decline the Nas 100 held up pretty damn good with not unexpected profit taking after Weds big move up.

Dow and SP as well did not give up all there gains. Anyway signals all remain

bullish, see if I can still get another winner this year but my expectations are

nil.

 

Hank

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  • 2 weeks later...
We don't foresee energy price leaps spreading to general inflation, but the energy dent on incomes will hurt more than just low income renters when the housing bubble bursts and destroys the appreciation homeowners have relied on to support their spending.

Before the housing-led recession unfolds, the Fed will probably invert the yield curve to the detriment of regional banks and other spread lenders.

 

A Gary Shilling

 

Shilling has been preaching "good" deflation for over a decade and been right on with his calls all along so I pay attention to him!

 

Was out yesterday checking out high end real estate here in NE Wisconsin.

For rent signs and many price reduced signs on them as the inventory builds. My RE agent neighbor finally relenting things seem to be taking a bigger turn down...she is going back to cutting hair in her extra time now.

 

Hank

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Trade continues to gain ground and doing nicely. A somewhat overbought

ST condition earlier in the week resolved and yesterday readings turned

extremely bullish. This move today should have good follow through.

If you are not already enjoying this, it's not too late and I would jump in at any

ST weakness.

HOM = BUY

CT= BUY

All the seasonal folks are giving each other a nice rally as they pile in on cue and I think the matrix elite ("pigmen") will let it ride for at least another holiday bash!

 

Staying Long QQQQ...more in the weekend update.

 

Hank

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Thanks AJC!

 

Just doing my best to help us out trying to pick a few nickels out of the pigmen's pockets.

I think if my signals are used along with docs cycle work you will make money most of the time.

What I see is a lot of over-trading being done here at CS. Only take trades when there is a lot of confirmation in preferably 3 or more non-correlated trading systems.

My FCS actually has this incorporated into it but the more the better.

 

The financials have really been key in supporting this latest rally and as I have mentioned often before must participate in any sustained rally...this is one of the primary reasons I think this current move could be a biggy.

 

I may look at the sector ranks and play a few strong component stocks.

Definitely the best long trading situation of the year.

 

Now up 5.17% and holding LONG QQQQ.

 

CT = BUY

HOM = BUY

 

Have a great weekend everybody :D

 

Hank

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CT Weekend Update:

 

HOM = BUY

CT = BUY

 

We continue to hold our long postition in QQQQ now up

7.1% or 2.74 points since the buy signal 10-20-05.

Indications remain bullish although somewhat ST overbought at the

moment. I still think they will rally it a bit into the holiday next week.

As any experienced trader knows one of the strongest seasonal

tendencies is the Santa rally especially if the market comes to life this early and

small caps also tend to be the big winners. The market also has a

strong tendency to form major tops in January and March.

Also it now looks as though the other VERY STRONG decennial cycle of

positive "5" years is once again playing out.

We now have many new index highs for the year including the SP and NDX and also new highs for this cyclical bull (since 2002).

 

My crystal ball will be brought out once again at New Years with my usually wrong prognostications for your current amusement and future laughter.

 

Hank

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