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My Message for today


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My message for the day.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9K4BKkLaCI

 

For one day at least making oilmen unhappy made everyone else happy because Joe 6P will now have a few more dollars in his pocket. Which is good for Joe but really, Joe doesn't mean a thing.

 

Oh yea, it's scam week too.

 

This financials profit blowout was so well advertised my problem was I could hardly believe they were going to go whole hog with it since the political pressure against them is becoming stupendous. I think the pigmen have gone too far again but after all that's what being a pig is all about.

 

Let's take the insiders insiders word for it. Trading range of 8500 to 7500. Risk reward looks pretty good to me on the short side.

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There is a lot of $GS bashing out there but damn the pigmen have no shame!

 

Goldman Sachs Executives Sold $700 Million Of Stock - Report

 

LONDON (AFP)--Executives at U.S. banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) sold almost $700 million worth of stock after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ( LEHMQ) collapsed in September, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.

 

Most of the sales, worth GBP431 million ($701.8 million), occurred when the firm enjoyed the support of $10 billion in U.S. government capital injections, the London-based newspaper said.

 

The FT based its report on compilings the newspaper had made of filings by banking executives with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

The surge in selling among Goldman partners, at a time when the U.S. Treasury had thrown Wall Street a lifeline through its asset relief program, is likely to spark criticism from lawmakers in Washington, the newspaper said.

 

The bank, having survived the global economic crisis that included the collapse of Lehman Brothers, is expected to report strong 2009 second quarter earnings later Tuesday thanks to rebounding trading profits.

 

The turnaround comes after Goldman Sachs said in April it lost $1.02 billion in December 2008, a day after it reported profit of $1.8 billion for the first quarter.

 

The bank declined to comment on the newspaper report other than to say that its partners receive a big share of their annual bonuses in stock, and that for many, stock sales represent an effort to diversify their holdings.

 

The bank has said it was repaying the Treasury's $10 billion.

 

"We are grateful for the government's extraordinary efforts and are pleased to be able to return to the U.S. Treasury the funds that were invested in Goldman Sachs," said Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and chief executive, last month.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-13-09 2109ET

Copyright © 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Options dwindle for bagholders stuck holding California IOUs

 

U.S. Bancorp became the latest to reject the pay-you-later warrants, joining Bank of America Corp., Wells Fartgo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other large institutions.

 

"I will not sign a budget with higher taxes that cause businesses to leave or more jobs to vanish.

And I will not sign a budget that does not address the waste, fraud and abuse in our government," Schwarzenegger says. "And I will not sign a budget that pushes our financial problems down the road. Because the road stops here."

 

The Legislature has until the end of August to balance the budget for the current fiscal year. If it fails to do so, payments to state pension frauds and paychecks for government employees will be jeopardized.

 

we're gonna chop, gonna chop, around the clock tonight

 

chop

chop chop

chop chop chop

chop chop chop chop

chop chop chop chop chop

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Looking at coal. Comparing cost per BTU and pricing between various fuels and usages of various fuels (very preliminary). Then looking for data on stockpiling issues: are folks/countries stockpiling coal like ships are used to stockpile petrol, what are the relative dangers of each?

 

I might write more about this later as I collect more data.

 

I am going to assume that no amount of road/bridge repair work, which seem to be small projects or larger, can't avoid projects, will replace the last four years of overbuilding downtowns at outrageous commodity prices and planning for more ships around the world. (Bearish on architect's and engineers earning a living.) And therefore assume steel prices go down, or at least don't go up, unless massive pipeline projects are unleashed. (That's the most bullish I can get on steel: pipelines.)

 

Also uncertain about rule changes re all the money funneled into swaps or other ilk that don't denote delivery, but which involve assumed zero-sum game bets against another. If delivery is the new requirement and speculative betting is out or, more likely, limited by increased margin requirements, mammoth seachange in all thinking.

 

Preliminary findings: Coal not well regarded as a fuel due to earth unfriendly issues, which might not affect all countries equally. Those with the least and less democratic societies will pollute, while the more democratic societies will imbrace scaling down. I assume "clean coal" is a fiction, although "cleaner coal" might be achieved through more expensive add-ons (filter expense with associated cost and waste). Long term, coal quite inexpensive compared to alternatives that were at least beloved by speculators. Perhaps, in part, because, if you could go off coal, as a small consumer, that was done in the 70's and 80's, via converstion to nat gas and oil and sometimes electric if not supplied by coal PP, if living in a weathly society.

 

According to DOE cost to produce coal (might be from 2007) is $26.40/ton (not sure if that includes debt costs). (I assume non mettalurgical special steel type, which was going for $94.97/ton in 2007 is a different game). Anyway at about $45/ton, I think it's overpriced. I think people love to buy commodity type stocks because they think the printing presses are running, and they are, no doubt. But in part, I'm expecting a utility crunch.

 

If coal companies have to pay for health costs to their workers, that's another issue that could decrease margins. Unless, somehow, national health care relieves them of that burden.

 

Other areas I am bearish on are WMT and IBM, primarily on charting. If WMT breaks below the mutli-year sideways movement, what then? I presume IBM is heavily dependent on states for money flow, and what then?

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