agent.5 Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 Now that we are all bullish, a question comes to mind: [1] the reason that we have bullish setups is because the Fed jams the market non-stop [2] the reason of jamming is because the "real" economy is crap. [3] But, the jamming and liquidity causes more disconnect. [4] More disconnect means the "real" economy is more crap. [5] To keep up the appearance of improving economy, more crap is not tolerated [6] More, and bigger jamming is deployed [7] More, and bigger jamming causes bullish setups. [8] Back to step [1] In short, will this cycle continue indefinitely? Worsening economy will cause increasing jam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 Turned on Fox's Cavuto on business to watch my father-in-law go ballistic. Discussion was heavy on the neocon "scare the crap out of the sheep" theme. Seems Cavuto is dead sure that Dean absolutely can't win, and is just as dead sure that if Wall Street senses a Dean victory, they will liquidate. Geez, talk about over the top propadanda and scare tactics. Fox needs to change its name to the RNC braodcast network -- only the news we want you to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mauldin011904.html "It turns out that fully 84% of the total increase in nonfarm payrolls over the August to November period is traceable to hiring in four segments of the labor market -- the temporary staffing industry, health, education, and government -- where combined jobs have increased by 68,000 per month. In other words, the bulk of the so-called hiring turnaround since August has been concentrated in either the contingent workforce (temps) or in those industry groupings that are least exposed to global competition. a small item buried in last week's Dallas Fed report. In the latest period, the average wage for temporary labor was $13.50 per hour versus $15.00 per hour a year ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 Bizarro-Greenspan.........Any word from ORO.....of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 Evening all! This extra day has given me extra time to review my trading - as its meen a bit screwed in December - going into Jan - more fool me! We all know that this will end badly - just a question of when. Some say now, some a year from now. I am not bright enough for all that, which is why I am sticking to short term time frames. I use 102mins/bar on the chart below - my job would stop me trading anything shorter!! On the day chart (not posted)we are trending, but it is quite overextended. Of course the tend goes on until it doesn't (somewhere below 1120). Until then its scalping - if you dare! On my time frame below the ADX is non-trending. The Stochs are overbought - but as we all know this can stay that way for a LONG time (I am using the green line - my own smoothing value to try and reduce whipsaws). The ribbon conflicts with the ADX and infers that a degree of trending is still there - this fits in nicely with the price channel drawn. So, my conclusion - purely short term is this: it is too late to go long looking at the stochs/ ADX - the immediate upside is limited. If I am feeling brave, than a scalp short is on the break of the channel - probably at 1035-1036 to allow error for a "proper" break. However because of the daily pictue, unless it is a sizeable move and quick, (as in 40 points plus) the daily chart is going to show it only as a pullback only, and then off to much higher levels. Any strong disagreements to this scenario? Cheers, MArk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 Turned on Fox's Cavuto on business to watch my father-in-law go ballistic. Discussion was heavy on the neocon "scare the crap out of the sheep" theme. Seems Cavuto is dead sure that Dean absolutely can't win, and is just as dead sure that if Wall Street senses a Dean victory, they will liquidate. Geez, talk about over the top propadanda and scare tactics. Fox needs to change its name to the RNC braodcast network -- only the news we want you to have. After the O'Neill revelations last week, I turned on Fox and Friends for a moment to see how long it would take them to start trashing O'Neill. I never watch FoxNews fascist garbage... but I was curious. Within two minutes of tuning in, not only had they started to trash O'Neill, but some f*cktard named ManCow (right-wing radio jock idiot) had disparaged all Dean voters by putting on a pair of silly glasses and declaring, "Look at me. I'm a Dean voter." 2 minutes. Fair and balanced. A real news channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flockofsheeples Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 anyone have an updated (milton) bradley model for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 http://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ Fleckstein is allowing free viewing this week, use "guest" as userid and passsword and you can read all of Jan's posts... He had some good stuff last week like: What I do find rather stunning is that IBM would move its earnings date. Being a director of a public company, I can't imagine what would prompt a respectable business to do that(hmmm suspicious, sell off after Op ex?) Or consider Research in Motion (RIMM), which was up over $1 after having issued about $800 million worth of stock. If you want to see a fine example of speculation, take a look at that company's market cap of over $7 billion, which, at over 12 times revenues, is a lot to pay for any company, but especially one that makes such a commodity as handhelds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 I understand the New York Post features a FULL page ad to buy gold eagles before gold goes to 1500. Talk about the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 In 2001, the Merval bottomed at 195, the equivalent of a Dow 1950. Today, the Merval was up the equivalent of 380 Dow points, or 3%, now trading at 1246, or the equivalent of Dow 12460, up 638%. Boner Action can be viewed here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^MERV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 http://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ Fleckstein is allowing free viewing this week, use "guest" as userid and passsword and you can read all of Jan's posts... He had some good stuff last week like: What I do find rather stunning is that IBM would move its earnings date. Being a director of a public company, I can't imagine what would prompt a respectable business to do that(hmmm suspicious, sell off after Op ex?) Or consider Research in Motion (RIMM), which was up over $1 after having issued about $800 million worth of stock. If you want to see a fine example of speculation, take a look at that company's market cap of over $7 billion, which, at over 12 times revenues, is a lot to pay for any company, but especially one that makes such a commodity as handhelds. After RIMM hits 100, it's in for a mighty fall. Anyone who was short 16 trading days ago has lost 100% of their investment so far if they remain short...all while new stock is issued at prices lower than it is presently trading at. http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 titus............the way I see IT..a SPIKE up to 1150 area will climax out the wedge on 60 min chart from about 1-12-04. I will take a shot shorting @ 1145 to 1150 area........first target 1132. Just a little more blow off action from earnings coming in should do it. THESE "good".....earnings is what this leg of bulldicking are all about Market is DISCOUNTING mechanism.....some where in here WEAKNESS develops........because market wants to know...Now WHATS NEXT youi gonna do for me........................................................... SHORT Scalping bull extensions in SnP..has been working for me...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 ROTATING corrections..has about run out of steam. To me ..new highs in Bank Index..IS the fat Lady singing, for this leg of bull. NOT saying market is not going on to new HIGHS...Just do not think it is forth coming without scary correction............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 Well, people think the market is a discounting mechanism. That's an idea Wall Street likes to promote. It assumes that the crowd can predict the future, that it somehow unconsciously "knows" something or can divine something about the future. The market is a measure of speculation and liquidity preferences. That's all. The idea that it is a discounting mechnicsm is a convenient excuse for protfolio sphincters to speculate wildly, based on completely unfounded and unsupportable asssumptions about the future, when in truth, they have no fornicating idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted January 19, 2004 Report Share Posted January 19, 2004 For MY money.......select ..SHORT entries in SnP INDEX is an "EDGE"...................................................................... I do not have fear of runaway bull news of like discovery that Rocky Mountains are solid.....platinum,silver,gold............... BUT.........what bad could hit TAPE any given minute is unlimited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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