Winning The Hearts and Minds?of the Wildebeest?

[alborz]

GTW, I've been thinking about selling my home in San Jose for a while now, and watching it go up in price every month. Inventory is down to 1800 from 3300 in Sep. in Santa Clara County. With Ebay, Goog, Adbe, etc. etc. setting higher highs how can RE go down 90% before SM going down 100%? Not in my neck of the woods. I'm visiting friends in LA now and yes prices are down but LA looks just like Shanghai - sure people bitch and moan about the high RE prices but prices keep going up anyway. All this on top of hearing from two very rich older folks (my dad's friends) who were engaged in many different biz over the course of their life - and what do they tell me? Same as you - they made their real money in RE - thanks to double digit inflation. I've lost a fortune gaming the SM crash and I've come full circle to now agree with you.

 

Will it go down in price again? In my opinion, yes. Will it drop below the previous low set during the last downturn in 92-95? No way in hell.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

That's about my target too, the '94 lows for SoCal..but with todays' prices, that would be a 65-75% drop in many cases..not 20%. A lot of prices have tripled or better since those lows..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[K Wave Rider]

Gtn

Remember that we are anticipating a sigma 10 event whether in slow motion or not-

    Sir Alec Templeton,as brilliant an investor as ever lived,has stated over and over again his predictin of an ultimate decline isn RE values of at least %90 --did you read that ??90%---

 

    Now why and for what reason would a 90 year old man.with an immensely prestigous reputation near the end of his life and with billions to his name make such a public statement???

 

To impress us? To destroy us? To gain an economic victory over impressionable sheeple?

 

beardrech   He may be exxagerating but if so hes to be honored because his interest isn't in being right: its rather to alter economic conduct so that it would disprove his prophecy--and wouldn't that be a proper reward for hiimm:HAHAHA Alec we knew you wer full of it

 

Perhaps because he is old enough to remember the 50+% RE drop in the '30s, with nowhere near the leverage being employed today..

[GTNWORSE]

 

 

Gtn

Remember that we are anticipating a sigma 10 event whether in slow motion or not-

Sir Alec Templeton,as brilliant an investor as ever lived,has stated over and over again his predictin of an ultimate decline isn RE values of at least %90 --did you read that ??90%---

 

Now why and for what reason would a 90 year old man.with an immensely prestigous reputation near the end of his life and with billions to his name make such a public statement???

 

To impress us? To destroy us? To gain an economic victory over impressionable sheeple?

 

beardrech He may be exxagerating but if so hes to be honored because his interest isn't in being right: its rather to alter economic conduct so that it would disprove his prophecy--and wouldn't that be a proper reward for hiimm:HAHAHA Alec we knew you wer full of it

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Perhaps because he is old enough to remember the 50+% RE drop in the '30s, with nowhere near the leverage being employed today..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

50% plus in the 30's?? You mean right after the GREAT DEPRESSION is that right. So your whole theory is based upon this country reliving that experience? I see. Well, people like Howard Ruff have made a good living preaching the doom scenario for many, many , many ,many.....well you know what I mean.

Don't think the people that follow them, however, have made a dime.

 

And, by the way, apart from being 90 and having his name attached to one of the worlds largest mutual funds and making big bucks from that business, I'm not at all sure about Sir Johns investing accumen. No disrespect intended.

[K Wave Rider]

50% plus in the 30's?? You mean right after the GREAT DEPRESSION is that right. So your whole theory is based upon this country reliving that experience? I see. Well, people like Howard Ruff have made a good living preaching the doom scenario for many, many , many ,many.....well you know what I mean.

Don't think the people that follow them, however, have made a dime.

 

And, by the way, apart from being 90 and having his name attached to one of the worlds largest mutual funds and making big bucks from that business, I'm not at all sure about Sir Johns investing accumen. No disrespect intended.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

OK GTN,

 

Howza about a more recent example that I personally can verify..I bought a Condo in your beautiful Santa Monica in 1989 for $299,000...by 1994, a unit in my building almost identical to mine sold for $144,000..that's more than a 50% drop FYI..

 

The POS is now prolly around 500K+

 

Think it can't happen again, but this time even worse with the added leverage?

 

Good luck to ya, you're gonna need it once this thing finally pops...

[dozer]

I posted a random thought this morning that perhaps the fringe of the 9000 hedgehogs might divert some falling-SM bucks to some PM's this time around, and mo-mo a few PM's like they've done to the GOAM's, SIRI's, etc..

 

Just stumbled across this in an article about the GG/WHT merger...

 

-----------

""British Columbia mining anal cyst Doug Hurst of D.S. Hurst Inc. said the proposed transaction reflects a market that sees small and mid-sized gold players bulking up to improve liquidity and become more attractive to managers of general equity funds.

----------

 

just one data-point, and from an anal-cyst at that , but perhaps we -are- about to see some more serious coin shifting into the PM sector....

[seamus]

Indeed K Wave - the amount of leverage in the system now on these properties is unprecedented.

 

I think we will see an abrupt shift up in rates that will completely upside down these short term borrowers.

 

Equity rules, until it doesn't

[GTNWORSE]

50% plus in the 30's?? You mean right after the GREAT DEPRESSION is that right. So your whole theory is based upon this country reliving that experience? I see. Well, people like Howard Ruff have made a good living preaching the doom scenario for many, many , many ,many.....well you know what I mean.

Don't think the people that follow them, however, have made a dime.

 

And, by the way, apart from being 90 and having his name attached to one of the worlds largest mutual funds and making big bucks from that business, I'm not at all sure about Sir Johns investing accumen. No disrespect intended.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

OK GTN,

 

Howza about a more recent example that I personally can verify..I bought a Condo in your beautiful Santa Monica in 1989 for $299,000...by 1994, a unit in my building almost identical to mine sold for $144,000..that's more than a 50% drop FYI..

 

The POS is now prolly around 500K+

 

Think it can't happen again, but this time even worse with the added leverage?

 

Good luck to ya, you're gonna need it once this thing finally pops...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Yes K-Wave, you bought a condo at the very top of the last bubble here in L.A. Then it top massive lay-offs in the aerospace industry, a riot, horrific fires, and the grand finale of a major earthquake.

The average peak to trough declined for that period was 21%.

As I said, I'm not advising anyone to buy right here and now. I expect to see lower prices. Cycles, as you know better than I, tend to repeat themselves. This has been a particularly profitable one for those how had the balls to hold on and keep investing in.

[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

and

 

Dear Stoolville:

 

110 28/32 comes from da following chart, hope that it posts, and that ewe can see it farily clearly. it is from alarontrading co dot com and is dec zombie 10 year fuctures chart.

 

jickiss!!

[dozer]

baaaa......baaaAAAAaaaa jickiss!!

 

:lol:

 

tanks much for clarifying for us furry tenderfoots...

[Charmin]

An "Omega Block" is setting up and getting ready to drive a huge, super-cold dome of high pressure in northern Canada into the midwest and eastern U.S., which has the potential to plunge temps to record lows thoughout most of the country.

 

I don't know how this will impact the energy futures, but its worth keeping an eye on it.

 

So be ready for a huge change in climatic conditions in most of the U.S.

 

And get ready for a possible huge upside spike in Natural Gas and Heating Oil.........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

UPL bounces off the trading range lows in the 46 area and retest of the August swing high. Friday looked like a perfect spring off those lows.

[dozer]

and jickiss, PS; why is it important? It looks like it's gone back and forth through that number several times this year already.

 

what do you see this time that's so significant? A correlation with something else that's new on this cycle down? tanks.

[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

and

 

wow. it posted. it shows that we got kinda close to 110 28/32.

we did not get through that level, and for sure, your jickiss is of the opinion that this is an important level. sure, you got the exact (a) number forecast by your jickiss....

but the concept of rising rates is da key. for sure!

 

and

 

gg buys wheaties. nice. here is another example of how Da Boyz (who knew about this deal in advance) shorted gg down, in front of the announcement.

 

nice. (and it is soooo "market is efficient, and knows all (HooHA)).

 

let's face it, it is better for gg to do wheaties, as the value of wheaties was established by core lay oh-e, when they did not get to buy wheaties.

 

your jickiss hopes that, after gg has its wheaties, nem will buy gg for 40 to 60, with the pog over 500 in january - feb 2005.

 

this news (WHT) should bottom gg, for sure.

 

 

AND

 

finally, will somebody post here again, EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN THE THE FOLLOWING

EXAMPLE:

"OWNER" OF A 5,000,000 HOUSE IN SANTA MONICA,

WHO, IN JUNE, 2005, CAN NOT MAKE THE MORTGAGE PAYMENTS ON SUCH CASA, stops paying da mortgage.

 

IN PHILLY, THE OWNER WOULD NOT PAY 3 PAYMENTS. THEN LENDER WOULD MOVE AGAINST THE OWNER. A DEFICIENCY JUDGMENT WOULD BE ENTERED EVENTUALLY.

 

THE "OWNER" WOULD DEFAULT, AND THE LENDER WOULD COME AFTER EVERY FRIGGIN THING ON EARTH, USING, EVENTUALLY, THE POLICE POWER OF THE SHERIFF OF NOTTINGHAM, TO SEIZE AND SELL ASSETS HELD BY THE OWNER.

Bank accounts, tennis racquets, moto-cross racing bikes. extra viagra tablets. cars, everything would be seized and sold.

 

AS JICKISS UNDERSTANDS IT, THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN KALI.

 

IN KALI, THE "OWNER" TOSSES DA KEYS TO DA CASA TO THE LENDER, WHO TAKES THE 5,000,000 HOUSE, (SOON TO BE WORTH 500,000), AND NEVER IS ABLE TO COME AFTER THE REST OF THE ASSETS OF THE SO CALLED "OWNER" UNDER THE KALI ONE DECISION RULE.

 

NATURALLY, THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT FAVOURS THE SPEC LONGS, WHO CAN TRADE UP AND OUT, BUT WHO FEEL, COLLECTIVELY, THAT THEY CAN NOT LOSE.

 

and, as long as the lenders lend, the spec longs can not lose.

price matters not one jot or tittle. this is an anti-gravity device.

 

DOC, IF THIS IS TRUE, ONLY THE LENDERS ARE DA BAGHOLDERS.

 

becasue all of THE SO CALLED "OWNERS" MERELY HAVE TO TOSS THE KEYS BACK if they can not pay, AND SAY,

"HELL, AFTER THE BIG DROP, WE CAN PLAY AGAIN."

 

JICKISS THINKS THAT this one decision rule makes KALI DIFFERENT. IN A SENSE, IT IS BETTER THAN THE FLORIDA HOMESTEAD RULES (THAT WERE ALTERED 24 MONTHS AGO, OR SO).

 

BORROW 130 %, AND KEEP PULLING THE LEVER.

 

if this is the way it works, then, every casa in Santa Monica, Palos Verdes, Newport Beach, etc, will go to 100,000,000 each. for there is no risk to owning long, if the other assets of the so called "borrowers" are protected from being taken by the lenders. this is just common sense. the lenders will be trashed, but not the spec longs. it is the perfect investment, for sure, if this is the way that it works........

 

regards to all!!!!

jickiss!

[dozer]

minnesota worked that way when I lived there some years ago.

 

and to pour salt in the lenders wounds, it took an average of two -years- to finally evict the 'owner' and get through the last of the potential recourses to a true legal FINAL foreclosure. In other words, so they could sell the damn thing to someone again.

[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

and

 

110 28/32 is derived from long term chart and trend levels that jickiss has never posted.

 

the number is a level from which, jickiss argues, (without trying to post chart-type-proofs) that ewe will all see has an effect on the belief that interest rates will stay low forever.

 

today, the mass mind still believes in Real Estate. It is the Merican Religion of our times.

 

When your jickiss lived in Kali, he was always amazed at the Ratio of Truly Wonderful Casas to the Total Number of Casas. It was very low.

 

since we have a global readership here, let your jickiss say it this way:

 

take Newport Beach Kali and Bryn Mawr Pennsylvania.

 

your jickiss says that, for SURE, any house right on the beach at Newport is worth plenty. you say $7,000,000, your jickiss says $10,000,000. What a view. What an address. There is real value there. Who really cares about the price. This is priceless, for sure, on a perfect clear evening, with the sun setting over the Pacific. Only a moron could care about the price. Life is too short to care, if you can afford, just buy.

 

BUT BUT BUT,

 

your jickiss notes that all of the non-view properties in Kali are now trading like they have a view....., so to say.....this is pure bubble, and will end badly.

 

go to Bryn Mawr, Pa, for the second half of the example. All of the north side properties are waayyy up in value, in the last decade. But they are all "nice."

Bryn Mawr College probably is one of the 5 most beautiful college campus environments on earth. the large properties in the north side of Bryn Mawr all all up. they are all really wonderful.

 

but, if you don't pay your mortgage in Bryn Mawr, you are putting all of your assets at risk.....(if you have a mortgage).

 

in Kali, the one decision rule (if jickiss understands it to be correct) means that the worst that can happen to you, if you do not pay the mortgage, is that you will have to strain to lift the keys, mail them in, and say, "Tanks, Lender, See Ya Buddie!" or whatever.

 

regards to all!

jickiss!

who owes -0- money to anyone, at this second.

 

debt will lead to destruction, except in Kali, if the One Decision Rule enables the borrowers to just toss keys back and walk into the deserts to die, free and clear and thirsty!!!

 

while PA freezes to death, from the coming killer cold wave, (obviously hatched by B4 and his underlings), to get even for those nasty border searches.

[K Wave Rider]

minnesota worked that way when I lived there some years ago.

 

and to pour salt in the lenders wounds, it took an average of two -years- to finally evict the 'owner' and get through the last of the potential recourses to a true legal FINAL foreclosure.  In other words, so they could sell the damn thing to someone again.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The Lenders deserve every last thing they got comin' their way...