Drano Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Not trying to say we should be trading off sentiment indicators, but here's Tobin Smith's freemail: "I want to draw my line in the sand right off the bat...I am UNDENIABLY BULLISH on the economy and the stock market right through election day at least." Crash coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Not trying to say we should be trading off sentiment indicators, but here's Tobin Smith's freemail: "I want to draw my line in the sand right off the bat...I am UNDENIABLY BULLISH on the economy and the stock market right through election day at least." Crash coming soon. tobin smith is a total shill. watching bulls & bears right now. consensus is still bullish. gary smith(chartman) says markets up 10% in may. this guy is an ultimate contrarian indicator too. he gives chartists a bad name. bring on the crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Today one of Saadams Generals wearing his old uniform is in charge of Fallujah. The Banned Iraqui Flag of Saadams regime flies over the city while crowds dance in the streets and loudspeakers blare we have vanquished the Americans. Sadly now the real insurgency will start because when push came to shove Bush blinked. Reuters is running a story about how Chief Puppet and indited felon Chalabi is about to have his stipend cut off and is being cast adrift for providing false and mis- leading intelligence. The markets are falling because it was "time" for them to fall and although they are generally immune from fundamental events-this is one of those rare times when they are not. Iraq is now a legitimate, chaotic quagmire from which their IS no exit. It will just keep sucking $'s and lives from an America made bankrupt by "fools." Bull markets are borne and sustained by "optimism", by full employment, by fair wages and by a blind faith in the future. You take that faith away and the finger pointing starts and it is about too.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 So many people expect the normal Presidential & 4 year cycle timing...even me....what if we are all wrong and the BEAR get restarted earlier than anyone thinks ! Not sure I understand that. Who is everybody? They can be early or late, but the 4 year cycle top has always ideally been due to form between March and September 2004. This one is right on schedule. There is no law that says it has to remain in the top formation until September. True, historical data is on that side. But where is the baseline of the top. Is it 1090, or is it 960? I don't know. The entire upmove looks like one of those parabolic things like Bowmar Instruments, JDSU, and TASR, which get unwound somewhat symmetrically, only faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Bush said today in his weekly radio address, for the second day in a row, that there are no torture chambers in Iraq. The last thing Bush should discuss today is anything to do with torture chambers. Six U.S. soldiers facing courts-martial in the abuse allegations have been reassigned in Iraq. Their boss, Brig. Gen. Janis Karpinski, commander of the 800th Military Police Brigade, and at least seven others have been suspended from their duties at Abu Ghraib, the U.S. military said. The prison was notorious under Saddam Hussein's rule, and Bush has made a point of taking credit for shutting down the ousted dictator's "torture chambers." http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,118720,00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Any thoughts on Yesterdays Volume. It wasn't that heavy. A collapse may very well come after a two day respit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 link TE-I think the volume comes Monday with no bounce until the 5th. Merriman interestingly see's a decline to the 5th a bounce to the 17th and then a multi-year decline-Yikes-that IS the wave 3 scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 link TE-I think the volume comes Monday with no bounce until the 5th. Merriman interestingly see's a decline to the 5th a bounce to the 17th and then a multi-year decline-Yikes-that IS the wave 3 scenario. Wave 3 or C. It won't matter. SPX 400-500 down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Today one of Saadams Generals wearing his old uniform is in charge of Fallujah. The Banned Iraqui Flag of Saadams regime flies over the city while crowds dance in the streets and loudspeakers blare we have vanquished the Americans. Sadly now the real insurgency will start because when push came to shove Bush blinked. Reuters is running a story about how Chief Puppet and indited felon Chalabi is about to have his stipend cut off and is being cast adrift for providing false and mis- leading intelligence. The markets are falling because it was "time" for them to fall and although they are generally immune from fundamental events-this is one of those rare times when they are not. Iraq is now a legitimate, chaotic quagmire from which their IS no exit. It will just keep sucking $'s and lives from an America made bankrupt by "fools." Bull markets are borne and sustained by "optimism", by full employment, by fair wages and by a blind faith in the future. You take that faith away and the finger pointing starts and it is about too.! ... and furthermore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdon Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 First, kudos to Yobob for his thoughtful and impassioned summary of US cultural malaise and how investment decisions are but a manifestation of this sickness. For months now, I have confessed to Wall Street broker friends my concern over a possible implosion of asset classes. Again, I think it is Yobob who has best seen that the inflation/deflation debate is but two sides of the same coin. Last year was the Year of the Asset Play. Everything went up. Relatively illiquid investments, such as small caps and mining shares, were particularly rewarding; but so was leveraged real estate and junk bonds. But these investments have been like a Pitcher Plant, where the opening is always wide and (like the bit of nectar lying below) inviting; but we know what happens to those inseccts that venture down the ever increasingly steeply slope insides of the plant (they cannot climb out and eventually they drop into a pool that kills). The doors of investment "opportunity" that have been opened for nearly a year have been so designed to accomodate the large numbers of victims that normally do not go in at once but need time to be convinced. When the time comes to get out, the door can never be wide enough; people figuratively trample each other trying to get out. The narrower doors of small caps and mining shares have and will continue to be the leaders on the next downleg. They are the canaries in the investment mine shaft; and they are signaling that the environment is imploding. The doors on real estate haven't quite closed, but it is almost time. Bonds have taken the biggest hit (few realize that the net wealth gain during the 3 days of stock rally leading up to and including the March specious unemployment report was more than offset by the lost of wealth on the one day of that report). Crashes are really anomalies in economic history, but the growing distress in illiquid investments, the lack of success in moving pools of funds into large cap, "defensive" issues by which to pad the popular indices, and the madness of the rationales given for pursuing the few real estate bubbles left leave me thinking that a crash scenario is more likely now than at any time since 1987. Certainly, next week could be "interesting," if BDK's anecdotal summation that 100% of bulls and 90% of bears are expecting a bounce. Finally a big round of applause to Brian4 for bringing back much of the spirit that pervaded this site not so long ago. I see lots of informed discourse and very little taunting, the latter which I hope continues. I am sure that Doc thinks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdon Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 P.S. The loss of wealth referred to at the end of paragraph 2 of course refers to falling bond values! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Any thoughts on Yesterdays Volume. It wasn't that heavy. A collapse may very well come after a two day respit. Some volume charts. Looks like volume is above average. Don't know if that means much. daclyyay[da][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G]nyse w/volume 1 month INDU w/volume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NASDAQ_400 Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 I am 1 of the 10 % bears - if that number is correct - who do NOT expect a bounce next week, but what do I know or what is my expectation good for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 I am 1 of the 10 % bears - if that number is correct - who do NOT expect a bounce next week, but what do I know or what is my expectation good for... We don't know and neither do they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Any thoughts on Yesterdays Volume. It wasn't that heavy. A collapse may very well come after a two day respit. Some volume charts. Looks like volume is above average. Don't know if that means much. daclyyay[da][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G]nyse w/volume 1 month INDU w/volume The fact that volume was lighter on Friday even though we made a lower low (spx) might be a sign that we get a little bounce back into resistance. I won't play it up but, will add to shorts should we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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