mjkst27 Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I just don't get these guys. 10,000 job losses a month, sometimes 20, wages down 20%, sometimes 50, house prices bearing no rational relationship to annual income, and there is no bubble? if house prices represent 70% inflation, and wages decline 20%, then 80% of Americans should be renting. Anyone who bought a first home in the last three years is probably struggling and that struggle will get much worse. huh? anyone who bought a house in the last 3 years is swimming in increased equity, at least for the moment, and if they didn't borrow it all out on REFI or HELOC. "It's all good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Maximum uncertainty in the geo-political and geo-economic realm.... THE UNRAVELING by Jim Puplava Storm Watch Update June 18, 2004 The Unraveling is a nice recap of the bearish position. On the beheading, the shock of this event might obscure the great efforts the Saudis made to find the killers. They succeeded but too late. Interesting how GWB, before he knew that, stated that the US would hunt down the killers. I don't know what the implications of what GWB said are, but the implications of the Saudi effort is that they are now in a state of war with Al Queda within SA. The true strength or weakness of AQ and Saudi royal family will be exposed in the coming weeks. If the royal family gains the upper hand, then we might see oil drop back some. If AQ makes progress, oil is going to double. It's hard to know what will happen next. Saudi authorities had stepped up their efforts to find Mr Johnson as the deadline loomed. Some 15,000 security officers swept through Riyadh, going from door to door in some areas and visiting about 2,000 sites. BBS - Militants behead US hostage I thought so too. Just stand by for more attacks on Western workers since the House of Saud is under attack also. Better that even chances US will be called in to help Saud at some point. .. probably so that the US can 'assist' to hunt down 'terrorists'. Sound familiar? Yes there is some merkiness over what happened in SA. You may still be asking yourself why did some of the killers of 22 foreigners get away a few weeks ago? One can very easily conclude that there is a part of Sa sympathetic to Al Queda. Interevention by the US would in my opinion only further the rift within the Kingdom. It would seem things now might get worse before any type of positive resolution would result. I.E. - don't short the energy sector yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 hmmmmmmmmmm Maybe "Aussie Bloke" wasn't a hoax after all. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5241392/ this is getting interestinger and interestinger carriers all out at sea? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm notice the deniability if something really bad happens - provided by the "surprise" aspect also notice it came out on Saturday morning hmmmmmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 RE: Puplava. Yes a solid bear case based on an inflationary scenario. Does he gloss over some things? Yes. Is he guilty of beating his own drum? You betcha. Personally I think the mini commodity boom we've seen over the last year+ is going to roll over very soon. What's the typical sign a boom is peaking and about to go bust? Everyone piling in. The combination of hedge funds and the huge surge in commodity funds have been the main driver on the back of the "China Syndrome". China's been stabbing the brakes now for a couple of months and the US consumer is squeezing gently on the brake pedal. A seemingly insignificant rise in the fed rate will be like barreling down the highway at 80 and yanking up on the emergency brake handle for American consumers; something Puplava alluded to but failed to follow the logic through to conclusion. As to yanking on the emergency brake handle at high speeds, as they say don't try this unless you're an experienced stunt driver. ( I have employed this very maneuver during my days solo racing sports cars - it is commonly refered to as a "hand brake turn") I also noted that the IR chart for the UK was displaying the classic inversion indicating impending recession, yet no comment was made on that either. Puplava and others are now on the stagflation bandwagon. Sorry, I don't think that's what will happen. We have come off of a stock bubble only to head immediately into a real estate bubbble. As any good Stoolie knows they are really one in the same, it really is only one giant credit bubble with no collateral. Real incomes are declining, we have exhausted the last of the three most recent consumer money surges ( mid-2003 refi bonanza, instant child credit tax rebate, Spring tax refunds) and we are heading into an unprecedented real estate bust on a national basis. It is already eating away at the heartland in the US and gradually moving towards the coasts. The bottom line is the consumer is tapped out and deeper in debt, by any metric, than at any other point in history. Ditto corporate America, financial institutions and all levels of Govt. Credit growth is stalling out and that spells the death knell. I stand by my prediction that in about 6 months or so most of America is going to be wide-eyed, mouth agape and wondering what the wingohockingmoyamensing happend. I'm begining to pray I'm wrong. There are no really good places in history we can look for absolute guidance. Some things are similar to previous episodes, yet almost everything is different when viewed in toto. To my knowledge it is the first time in history when the entire global financial system is based purely on fiat and encountering a major crisis. Everything at every level is based purely on the confidence of the populace in their governments and the toilet paper they issue. There is little in the way of true wealth creation happening. Instead we are getting financial fantasy wealth based on trading little slips of paper back and forth across the planet. I.e. no one wants to do the actual work it takes to create wealth and you have a situation where a minority of the population must work their butts off so the majority can live in their government/financial fantasy world. As one of the minority, I can tell you I'm growing weary of carrying the load. I'm not alone. By not being in debt I can pull the plug anytime I care to and simply stop producing, at least for a long sustained period - long enough to stand back and let the chips fall where they may. That's the time to shop until you drop. Well done. I think the god-like way the Congress and the President treat AG will prevent him from taking the steps he should be taking now to prevent a great crisis in the future. For example, decreasing stock market speculation and increasing the requirements for home purchases and refinancings. But he won't. He of course is just the best representative of what is wrong with our financial system. Perhaps the real problem is that politicians and major business persons are happy with the phony fiat system of trade and credit we exist upon. Occasionally some truth gets out, like a mjor oil executive in Europe stating that in the long run the world is going to be heating up like that proverbial frog in the pot. We are getting warmed up (global warming) and we don't realize we will be cooked (energy supplies used up). Hoever even if China slows down in the short run, and its financial system because of its simplicity will be able to recover much faster than in the US, long term population growth will make it a tremendous competitor for natural resources and food for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Here's a little gem I uncovered some time ago. CPI inflation just moved above 3% in May and could quite possibly exceed 3.5% in June. There have only been five instances in the past 32 years when inflation went from under 3 to over 3.5% and four of them are associated with noteworthy bearish occasions. They include the onset of the 73-74 megabear in December 1972, the 1987 bear and crash, the beginning of the secular bear in March 2000, and the onset of the May 2001 waterfall. The fifth, somewhat less dramatic instance, occurred during the 83 bear market. Thanks for contribution. CPI is going to show quite a gain this year and I don't think that has yet been fitted into the equations of many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 27 - everyone I know who has bought in the last three years is house poor and struggling, as overhead costs have risen. they have little equity and have already spent the refi cash. maybe the sheep want to live like that , but Ido not care to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 27 - everyone I know who has bought in the last three years is house poor and struggling, as overhead costs have risen. they have little equity and have already spent the refi cash. maybe the sheep want to live like that , but Ido not care to. me neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Prince Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 You people have got to get it in your heads that we are dealing with a RELIGIOUS problem with Al Queda not a purely political one. AQ's members are Wahabi. This is the equivilent of our fervent Pentacostals with their women in hair buns and no makeup. Wahabis are strict fundamentalists and believe in the four options in dealing with unbelievers. 1. beheading, 2. slavery, 3. ransom, 4. if your having a good day, pardon and release. This is taught in the Koran. This is a war on All unbelievers and beheadins are common NOW in Kashmir with Hindus and Indonisia and the Philipines with Christians. Oh, and for god sake please explain to me why there was a shell of an air liner outside Baghdad that was routinely used by terrorists for pratice sessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Prince Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 The majority of Saudis are Wahabi. The Saudis fund the majority of the the mosques in the US and the world. This is the probable reason for the escape in SA of the murders of the Western oil workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 You people have got to get it in your heads that we are dealing with a RELIGIOUS problem with Al Queda not a purely political one. AQ's members are Wahabi. This is the equivilent of our fervent Pentacostals with their women in hair buns and no makeup. Wahabis are strict fundamentalists and believe in the four options in dealing with unbelievers. 1. beheading, 2. slavery, 3. ransom, 4. if your having a good day, pardon and release. This is taught in the Koran.This is a war on All unbelievers and beheadins are common NOW in Kashmir with Hindus and Indonisia and the Philipines with Christians. Oh, and for god sake please explain to me why there was a shell of an air liner outside Baghdad that was routinely used by terrorists for pratice sessions. Just who is the source of the info on the shell of an airliner being used by terrorists? The average American has enough chemicals sitting under his kitchen sink and out in his garage to be accused of holding a supply of potential WMD. We heard much absolute nonsense, arm waving, and pure lies coming from the administration war mongers on everything from protective chem suits to mobile weapons labs which all proved out as so much BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anoscope Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 You people have got to get it in your heads that we are dealing with a RELIGIOUS problem with Al Queda not a purely political one. AQ's members are Wahabi. This is the equivilent of our fervent Pentacostals with their women in hair buns and no makeup. Wahabis are strict fundamentalists and believe in the four options in dealing with unbelievers. 1. beheading, 2. slavery, 3. ransom, 4. if your having a good day, pardon and release. This is taught in the Koran.This is a war on All unbelievers and beheadins are common NOW in Kashmir with Hindus and Indonisia and the Philipines with Christians. Oh, and for god sake please explain to me why there was a shell of an air liner outside Baghdad that was routinely used by terrorists for pratice sessions. Just who is the source of the info on the shell of an airliner being used by terrorists? The average American has enough chemicals sitting under his kitchen sink and out in his garage to be accused of holding a supply of potential WMD. We heard much absolute nonsense, arm waving, and pure lies coming from the administration war mongers on everything from protective chem suits to mobile weapons labs which all proved out as so much BS. It was widely reported... googled and picked the first one http://www.tortlaw.com/sitedata/docs/JBJ%20personal.htm a link to the actual article (scan) http://www.tortlaw.com/images/AWST%20article.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 You people have got to get it in your heads that we are dealing with a RELIGIOUS problem with Al Queda not a purely political one. AQ's members are Wahabi. This is the equivilent of our fervent Pentacostals with their women in hair buns and no makeup. Wahabis are strict fundamentalists and believe in the four options in dealing with unbelievers. 1. beheading, 2. slavery, 3. ransom, 4. if your having a good day, pardon and release. This is taught in the Koran.This is a war on All unbelievers and beheadins are common NOW in Kashmir with Hindus and Indonisia and the Philipines with Christians. Oh, and for god sake please explain to me why there was a shell of an air liner outside Baghdad that was routinely used by terrorists for pratice sessions. Just who is the source of the info on the shell of an airliner being used by terrorists? The average American has enough chemicals sitting under his kitchen sink and out in his garage to be accused of holding a supply of potential WMD. We heard much absolute nonsense, arm waving, and pure lies coming from the administration war mongers on everything from protective chem suits to mobile weapons labs which all proved out as so much BS. It was widely reported... googled and picked the first one http://www.tortlaw.com/sitedata/docs/JBJ%20personal.htm a link to the actual article (scan) http://www.tortlaw.com/images/AWST%20article.jpg A whole lot of speculation and spin going on in that article. "Secure bioweapons site" -- obviously the article was dead wrong right out of the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Wahabis are strict fundamentalists and believe in the four options in dealing with unbelievers. 1. beheading, 2. slavery, 3. ransom, 4. if your having a good day, pardon and release. This is taught in the Koran. did the Wahabi start having these beliefs only recently? I thought the Koran dates back to 700 AD? So why the urgency since Bush took office? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Attention The End: interesting review of last night's Prince concert at Star-tribune.com. (In the print version, it's in the B, "Metro" section.) He had trouble dancing because he wore custom sneakers with three-inch rubber heels instead of his usual boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Typically, starting off a posting with the term "you people" is not going to be too well received. If it was not meant to be inflamatory, you might want to rethink before you hit the send button next time. We all have opinions, but demeaning all others to make your point is not a welcome approach in these parts. Thank you for your consideration, and your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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