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#1 DrStool

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 05:17 PM



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#2 byhiselo

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 05:19 PM

ok, delete mine

#3 DrStool

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 05:55 PM

Bulls Keep Doing It – Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Monday, July 13, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit The net aggregate differential between buy and sell side indications rose from -1221 to -489. This move comes off a higher low. Last Thursday’s low of -1396 was well within the range where short term lows form and still above the June 16 low of -1631. Intermediate price lows are typically preceded by at least one or two or even more higher lows on this indicator. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#4 cwd

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 05:58 PM

From Richard Russell''s daily letter. :rolleyes:

And from the McClellan Market Report -- Most government economists fail to understand that creating more money has a lagged effect on the financial markets and on the economy. It takes about 8 months for a surge in M-1 growth to hit the stock market, and we are now due for the echo of the Fed's big money-printing effort of late 2008. That should bring a strong rally to an August top, probably starting from a bottom that our predictive signals say is due July 14-17. But the rapid braking the Fed did on the printing presses in January and February means that September and October are going to be UGLY

#5 Bungster

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 06:09 PM

Before the market can go down...Atilla and bearz must do honorable thing....

harakiri.jpg

:ph34r:
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#6 Jetlag

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 06:19 PM

From Richard Russell''s daily letter. :rolleyes:

And from the McClellan Market Report -- Most government economists fail to understand that creating more money has a lagged effect on the financial markets and on the economy. It takes about 8 months for a surge in M-1 growth to hit the stock market, and we are now due for the echo of the Fed's big money-printing effort of late 2008. That should bring a strong rally to an August top, probably starting from a bottom that our predictive signals say is due July 14-17. But the rapid braking the Fed did on the printing presses in January and February means that September and October are going to be UGLY


Is M1 the Dog or the Tail?

#7 T_Slim

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 06:46 PM

<embed src="http://capitalstool....utostart=false>


:lol: You know it's just really sad. You can't hold onto any thing for too long. When I went to bed last night (5:00 a.m. eastern 3:00 a.m. local), it looked like the bears had everything under control. Wake up at 11:00 a.m. local time here and everything got completely reversed once the New York session began. I'm getting sick and tired of this crap . . . :ph34r:

#8 Jetlag

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 07:07 PM

Owner of Ass&Pee puts BusinessWeak up for sale. Triple A stickers for CDO tranches aren't moving like in the heydays.

http://www.bloomberg...id=aKD9cRPQ4Ips

#9 Bungster

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 07:11 PM

Caution warranted here bearz....

nymo_1yr.png
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#10 DrStool

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 08:06 PM

The idea that there's some kind of magical 8 month lag between M1 and the stock market is absolutely laughable. There's not a shred of evidence to support that.

Here's a chart with M1 shifted forward 8 months so that where M1 was 8 months ago lines up with SPX today. I've also included a 12 month rate of change.

Attached Thumbnails

  • spxM1.png


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#11 Jetlag

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 08:15 PM

Dreier got a big discount on the years he's serving.

"Marc Dreier, the New York law firm- founder, was sentenced to 20 years in prison for defrauding hedge funds of more than $400 million and stealing money from his clients. "
http://www.bloomberg...id=a8OstHJoK_JY

At least 400 M lost / 20 years = 20M a year

Madoff paid dearly for the years he's spending in the slammer

at least 20.000 M lost / 150 years = 133M a year

talk about deflation!

#12 Jetlag

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 08:28 PM

The idea that there's some kind of magical 8 month lag between M1 and the stock market is absolutely laughable. There's not a shred of evidence to support that.

Here's a chart with M1 shifted forward 8 months so that where M1 was 8 months ago lines up with SPX today. I've also included a 12 month rate of change.


If it only were that easy! :lol:

#13 No Einstein

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 08:42 PM

I said it before and I say it again..
When KWAVE is away the bulls will play.

..........
on another note... bottle rocket candle on GDX
long gdx today for a swing trade.. bought a little 5 times throughout the day.
5 X a little = 25% long - mental stop at todays low
Einstein quotes
"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep."

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."

#14 Bungster

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 08:50 PM

I wish Madness would check in.... :unsure:

despair2.jpg
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#15 BusKow

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 08:59 PM

Longer periods are holding up the composite...
13JulSigs.png

Close ~912 or plus turns the look
13JulSPXtrend.png
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.





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