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B4 The Bell Moonday March 29, 2004


Guest yobob1

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Guest yobob1

We must, we must, improve the bust.

 

Bully has gone hog wild to make their end of the quarter statements look pretty. What else is new. Oh yeah, we're totally screwed. :lol:

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Fed does 7.75B repos, replacing 4.75B. This is only a tad aggressive when considering quarter end - and consistent with a general stingy March money policy.

 

The fed's policy could pull the bond market and then the stock market down more.

It is not unusual to see big bond moves in early April.

 

See Doc's Feed report for more details.

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One last thing

 

The spoos are exactly where they were 35 minutes after the open at 10:05 am

Amazing the power of a 4:00 -9:30 am jamjob. Run them up prior to the open, squeeze the weekend shorts and DISTRIBUTE for the rest of the day.

 

All those mms window dressing, buying stock for the Mas and Pas of America at noebleed levels as the insiders sell hand over fist. No shortage of bagholders in bubble 2.

 

I am to terrified to short this pig regardless of Bearmans astute observation. End of quarter is always a scary time for the bears and todays action reflects that. With the Bushman needing more support they have pulled out the big guns again. Screw them. Ill be there when this thing turns. They are not taking back what they have soooooo many times in the past.

 

Have a good one all...

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watching the s-p today burns into my brain

how bad program trading has become

hal has taken over but will blowup

derivatives are like a cancer as they eat the host

Love your haiku, bearman.

 

This version is modified with 'rhyme hooks' so you can use it at the poetry slam:

 

Watching the s-p burns into my brain

How program trading has become insane

Hal took over but will turn to toast

Derivatives are a cancer as they eat the host

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Interesting aside from a wealthy American conservationist who has been buying land in Chile and Argentina:

 

"We are 100 percent dedicated to our projects in Argentina," [Douglas] Tompkins said. "And probably also in Paraguay, where there are conservation opportunities. Not in Brazil, that country is a time bomb, there's going to be a bigger default than in Argentina."

 

Land baron

 

Brazil's devaluation several years ago was a major factor in tipping over Argentina, as its formerly dollar-pegged peso become overvalued.

 

Tompkins evidently thinks that Brazil only bought time with the deval ... but eventually must take the plunge over Default Falls as Argentina did.

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Nothing new, but interesting never the less "The importance of our forecast is that we fully expect more than 50% of American homeowners will become under water, or upside down, on their home mortgages because of the deadly deflationary economic consequence of having borrowed too much on their homes and then their home price declining, on a comparable neighborhood-sales basis.

 

Because home equity constitutes the lion's share of family net worth, this complete loss of home equity by more than 50% of American homeowners will have a tremendous negative "wealth effect" on their consumption spending -- which is the primary force driving the American economy. This is especially a problem since Americans have run their income-based savings rate down to the its lowest level in history.

 

Since every family has to live somewhere, of course there won't be a selling panic and mass exodus from homes, although we fully expect an over-housing problem will be so exposed. Since homes are illiquid assets, we fully expect the negative-home-equity wealth effect will cause homeowner investors to massively liquidate their stock market investments, which will have already declined again -- see our recent calls for a major stock market top and subsequent second-leg, devastating bear market -- from having been so overvalued as they are today relative to a second coming recession. However this time the recession will be led by over- extended consumers, although businesses will have to cut back in concert, of course. We also expect it to be a global recession, but I'll cover that in another article.

 

" http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/b.../2004/0328.html

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