longOnUranus Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 wndy - thanks, best answer to my original question. The charts are impressive, however, all are deeply overbought. Point taken that if we retest of lighter volume, I will go to cash at that point and close puts. No way I go long. If we hit 906+/- 3 before we see any drop, I cover. Prechter may be right about gold. If it gets in the 200's again, it'll be the buy of a lifetime. I don't want to be long QLGC, AMAT or KLAC when that happens, cause I have to pay up front to get those metals. For the near future, however, cash may be king. My plan of three years will not change in 8 days. 52 years have taught me that wars do not change things overnight. We have seen 48 hours of a huge frontal assault by every aspect of the Matrix. Be nimble in, know when to get out, but don't go against the Trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 with this IT bottom @ 789 notice how much higher the macd is starting out from .... weekly rsi is over 50 as well... I see 914 next week pullback to 860 then we launch to 985.... which is a rough 38% fib retrace of 1315 -768 .... it also fis nicely with an ABC count projection ....... All this is my opinion so trade on your own DD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 I thought I might clarify my postion. Knowing the fundmentals suck, does not prevent me from taking foolish money, long or short. I am an equal opportunity predator. I have even been known to collect dividends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 GTN: upon the bulk of average investor (you or me) going long (probably Monday), be prepared for an engineered retrace to make you cough up your shares. The transports were pretty beaten up and started moving well. The financials have been moving well but are approaching a retrace level. I have C from around 32 and CNF from around 30. And some others which are just laying there - GLW and NT - perhaps they will be late up-cycle movers? Actually, you might want to have a look at the golds - which have sold off sharply, are approaching the buy point of their cycle, and some have a favorable risk/reward ratio. Phase 1 Buy Broads, Cover Golds Phase 2 Sell Broads, Buy Golds Phase 3 Short Broads, Sell Golds Phase 4 Cover Broads, Short Golds Or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 one more point .... in the next 2-3 weeks you are going to have the 13 week trading above the 40 week ..... first time since summer '01.... this bullish technical event will help fuel the move to 985 .... for what it is worth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speculator Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Phase 1 Buy Broads, Cover GoldsPhase 2 Sell Broads, Buy Golds Phase 3 Short Broads, Sell Golds Phase 4 Cover Broads, Short Golds Or something like that. You got the ticket AssMaster. Thats the same senerio I'm looking at. Timing is of course always the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Phase 1 Buy Broads, Cover GoldsPhase 2 Sell Broads, Buy Golds Phase 3 Short Broads, Sell Golds Phase 4 Cover Broads, Short Golds Or something like that. You got the ticket AssMaster. Thats the same senerio I'm looking at. Timing is of course always the problem. Question: How does one of limited resources with their money in Fido actually short gold? I would like to implement this strategy with a portion (maybe 1/3) of my funds and could use Rydex for long/short broads and long PMs. Do they have a PM short fund? I suppose I could just start looking for tasty bottoms in the broads a bit early. Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 "Running the box" That's a term I learned studying the intracacies of the ol' VSE mining stock game. It would appear the freedom huggers of the US capital markets are running a box,a huge box.Gaming the paper oil market,the POG/COMEX sideshow,marshalling the frightened mASSES into the UST's,then pumping the proceeds of the scalping into the big casino supermodels. Fundamentals sucketh immensely,yet the throngs are lining up outside the casino again. Simply amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 GTN: upon the bulk of average investor (you or me) going long (probably Monday), be prepared for an engineered retrace to make you cough up your shares. The transports were pretty beaten up and started moving well. The financials have been moving well but are approaching a retrace level. I have C from around 32 and CNF from around 30. And some others which are just laying there - GLW and NT - perhaps they will be late up-cycle movers? Actually, you might want to have a look at the golds - which have sold off sharply, are approaching the buy point of their cycle, and some have a favorable risk/reward ratio. Phase 1 Buy Broads, Cover Golds Phase 2 Sell Broads, Buy Golds Phase 3 Short Broads, Sell Golds Phase 4 Cover Broads, Short Golds Or something like that. I like to remove shorts then uncover broads. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 ASS master you could always short CEF if your broker has the stock available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 On Mar 10 th? Rub said? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I too was worried about the extreme TRIN reading today. However it was accompanied by very light volume and the action though steady was hardly a blowdown. Along with the 10 to 1 Dec/Adv ratio, the other components necessary for a bottom are 10 to 1 issues which we didn't have and heavy volume and heavy down ticks. These components were missing. I think the downside move continues and there's no reason to worry about a big rally here. I watched all day long, my shorts gained nicely and there were never any real meltdown moves in any of them. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hypertiger said? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Break to new lows then the race is on to see who is the last one to find a chair on the long side... doomsday within 13 -18 months still in play. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ultimately I was not much help either on the 10 th? no new lows I failed you all, sorry? if that was your plan or you were waiting for it? But on the 13th I had a second chance? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Im in physical silver and it went... NOWHERE so I will keep on stacking... I get a feeling when we go down and it looks grim the feeling that this ain't it... as in total melt down... is the whole house of cards going down in flames tomorrow? Doubt it... I will go out on a limb after looking at the big picture and say it is going to be sometime in the next 12 to 17 months... someone last night thought that 13 - 18 was to long to live so after some thought I have decided to cut the time to live down by a month... But It could implode at anytime... But the best bet is to keep your eye on real estate... when that cracks, then you will see a "real" waterfall... Do not worry about your beard if you are about to lose your head -SUN TZU ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now you all see a change? really? you don't say.... I see no change at all? zip, zero, nothing? I?m not here to tell you when to go long or short I just want to be helpful is all? Bull market? I pity you all? it will go up until it can?t no more and once everyone and their dog starts going short around the DEC highs you secular bull market people will be pressing the tune change replay button again. Doc and and now K wave pointed out the Japan up and down sideways scam? which was supported by the US recovery in 93 from the great consumer credit depression of the early 90?s? what country or economic power is going to recover and prop up the US markets and economy that is on the verge of collapse? Answer: No country on the Earth exists at this time which is capable of accomplishing this... Hint the US has already sucked most of the world dry to support itself and in fact it is in the worst economic position in it's history at the moment... Just in case you are or have been confused... If it wasn?t for the on going massive and unprecedented world wide monetary intervention we/you would have been standing around a burning oil drum waiting for the soup kitchen to open a long time ago? What should have been, will be, very soon... once the fortune 500 is bankrupt and in ashes then maybe we will be close to the bottom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoolander Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Here's a scaled down version of my McClellan chart ... just as well since it works best if you look at it from the macro view. It is a chart of the DJIA with McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE, Dow, Nasdaq, AMEX and overall (top to bottom). Points of interest are late January when McClellan was Dover Sole but we got no bounce, extreme readings eased off, we drifted into March and then got the huge rally off a much milder McClellan reading ... that's my excuse for not seeing it coming When I look at the hard right edge, I gotta say it looks like a top. I do not preclude the possibility that it is early in the top, but again, the Dow has not been this overbought in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoolander Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 BTW, if you watched George Washington (aka Louis Rukeyser) you would have noted as did I that all 3 of his panelists (who are pretty much perma-bulls) while bullish on the future were of the opinion that this move up has been too far too fast. Now I don't know what to think since I have found myself in disagreement with most of what has come out of their mouths since about 1999 (I didn't watch much before then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Back to the charts, see posts from yesterday, if this is a corrective WAVE 2, yesterday either completed WAVE 2 or completed A, if 2 is a three wave correction. If we go with scenario number two which after reviewing more charts last evening, and looking at time as well as price, is IMHO more likely, look for wave B to start monday and complete with a retrace to 1360(.382 ), 1340(.5),1320(.618) or 1291(.78) before wave c takes us back up to 1462 max which is a .78 retrace of WAVE 1 ... then we get turd of a turd of a turd.....trade safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Will compute similar numbers for the spx when time allows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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