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IDS World Markets Fri 24th October 08


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t?s=%5EAORD

 

 

The market is behaving erratically so far. All Ords -0.6% with slightly more red sectors than green. REITS is downside leader, -3.3% followed by Miners -1.7% and Materials -1.6%. At the green end, IT +2.5%, Energy +1.6% and Healthcare +1.3%.

 

Only slight losses for the big miners: BHP -1.9% and RIO -1%. Golds are generally up: Newcrest +4.7%, Lihir +5.5% and Newmont -5.6%.

 

Oils mixed on light volume: Woodside +2.3%, Santos +2.2% and Caltex -1.7%.

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South Korean Economy Grows at Weakest Pace in 4 Years

 

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's economy expanded at the slowest pace in four years last quarter, sparking concern the nation is headed for its first recession since requiring an International Monetary Fund bailout 10 years ago.

 

The economy grew 0.6 percent from the previous three months, when it advanced 0.8 percent, the central bank said in Seoul today. Goods and services exports fell 0.9 percent, the biggest drop in seven years, and household spending rose 0.1 percent.

 

---------------

 

South Korea Stocks Tumble, Set for Worst Week Since 1997 Crisis

 

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's stocks fell in the Kospi Index's worst week since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, as the slowest growth in four years stoked concern the economy is headed for a recession. The won declined and bonds gained.

 

The Kospi fell 64.62, or 6.2 percent, to 985.09 as of 12:21 p.m. in Seoul, set to close below 1,000 for the first time since June 2005.

 

The Korea Exchange temporarily halted program trading of Kospi shares for the 11th time this year after index futures plunged. The index has tumbled 31 percent this month as concerns that companies will struggle to refinance debt prompted the government to announce measures to support banks and builders.

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w?s=%5EAORD

 

 

An exceedingly bearish development occurred today. All Ords dropped through recent support (which was also historical support) and there's not too much to arrest another major slide.

 

The index closed -2.7% with REITs receiving yet another hammering, -10.3%, Financials next in line, -4.2% and Miners and Materials both -2.6%. IT continued to soar, +6.5% and Healthcare also closed up +1.4%.

 

In the miners, BHP finished -1.3% and RIO -4.3%. Golds came in mixed: Newcrest +2.6%, Newmont -6.1% and Lihir -0.7%.

 

Oils were also mixed: Woodside -2.2%, Santos +6.2% and Caltex -2.1%.

 

Heavy losses in Asia: Honkers -4.7%, India -3.4%, Nikkers -7%, Singers -4.8%, Sth Korea -11.8% and Taiwan -3.1%. China is getting off lightly, -0.7%, at this stage.

 

 

Over to UK/Europe:

 

t?s=%5EFTSE

 

t?s=^GDAXI

 

t?s=%5EFCHI

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

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A panic on at the moment which probably contributed to the weakness in today's market:

 

More fund managers are expected to suspend redemptions on their mortgage funds, after a rush of payouts saw more than 30 mortgage funds put a freeze on the withdrawal of capital by investors.

 

Customers have been flocking to institutions guaranteed by the Federal Government, causing some Australian funds management companies to freeze payments to investors.

 

Yesterday investment companies Babcock and Brown, AXA Asia Pacific and Perpetual announced they would be suspending withdrawals from their commercial and property funds. AXA Asia Pacific says policy holders will have to wait six months before they can access their money.

 

Richard Gilbert from the Investment and Financial Services Association says the Government needs to resolve the problem in the investment industry as soon as possible.

 

"The industry is ... between $15 and $18 billion depending on how you assess it," he said.

 

"Thirteen of the top 20 funds are now closed, and so we're probably talking, two thirds of 15, about $10 billion, $12 billion frozen, as we speak.

 

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/081024/31/20h3a.html

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Black Friday on Tap? - October 24, 2008  :huh:

 

Black Thursday - October 24, 1929 - First of Three Declines that Initiated the "Crash"

703207[/snapback]

Tomorrow could be real ugly....Unless something changes drastically by the open,we may gap down and not look back.

 

Nikkei under 8000

 

Trade safe

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Tomorrow could be real ugly....Unless something changes drastically by the open,we may gap down and not look back.

 

Nikkei under 8000

 

Trade safe

703208[/snapback]

 

As I posted over in Mark to Market (guess Mark aka wndysurf is no longer around for the forum that bears his pun) earlier:

 

This lines up with one of my EWave counts, which has the next wave as a nested third wave (wave 3 of 3 of 5 of c), which could mean very ugly things for the market (and all of us).? I'm hesitant to believe it, because I tend to be too bearish for my own good.

703202[/snapback]

 

This was actually my preferred count prior to 4 days ago, but I started doubting it on the 20th (I wasn't looking for a nested 3). A nested 3 here would be exceedingly bearish, for those unfamiliar with Elliot Wave. Today will show if this count is right or not. If it is, wave 2 of 3 might have ended at the close yesterday... and today's destruction will be swift and frightening.

 

Using the above count: Wave 1 of 3 of 3 of 5 was 125 points. A 1.618 extension would make wave 3 just over 200 points. If this count is correct, we could see a rapid plunge to 700 over the next few sessions. A 2.618 extension would put us in the high 500's (!). And we'd still have wave 5 of 5 to consider. I sincerely hope this count is wrong.

 

My charts for SPX have minor support at 898+/- (futures are well below this, trading at 873 as I type), and better support at 855+/- from the trendline connecting the two most recent lows. Below that and you're on your own.

 

Nikkei is off 805(!!!) as I write this.

 

Good lord. :ph34r:

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As I posted over in Mark to Market (guess Mark aka wndysurf is no longer around for the forum that bears his pun) earlier:

This was actually my preferred count prior to 4 days ago, but I started doubting it on the 20th (I wasn't looking for a nested 3).  Today will show if it's right or not.  If it is, wave 2 of 3 might have ended at the close yesterday... and today's destruction will be swift and frightening.

 

Nikkei is off 805(!!!) as I write this.  Good lord.  :ph34r:

703211[/snapback]

 

Don't panic...it's only..... :huh: um......10% :ph34r:

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Friggin' horrow show opening in Europe.

703215[/snapback]

 

Once the DOW and SPX break under the 10/10 lows then all of the bottom dippers that loaded long start hitting the sell trigger. NDX already broke those lows twice so why should anyone be surprised that we are teetering right on the precise of a major catastrophe. The funny thing is that all of the "Bullshit Bears" can't stay short cause they fear the PPT will blow them out. The reality is that the PPT has already blown themselves out and has finally decided to "let er' go"...

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Looks like I went full tits long right before the clash, why am I not surprised  :lol:

703216[/snapback]

 

Well, there's no guarantee it'll crash. Don't listen to me. Hell, I don't even listen to me half the time.

 

My posts are for entertainment purposes only. ;)

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