GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Agree with Slothrop. And, SG's calls are all posted in his forum, and he did indeed chart this week's action well in advance. That said, I'm still concerned by the utter disbelief in this rally felt by me and most of the participants I follow. Just feels like a recipe for pain. Still in all my positions. Wondering why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Here's another e waver coming in! Alex you're going to look like a frog in a blender if you keep this up-like SG and Sloth I made damn good coin this week. Look the SPOO's couldn't get over 853 today-SG has already covered NazQuack-this beast is about to turtle and head down much, much harder than you think. I had a KA CHING day-like Greg said the other night a lot of what we do is drudgery waiting for the moment-but sometimes (not often enough) it's like that magic game of pool where the pockets look as big as peach baskets and you know, you just know before you shoot the ball is going in and you're going to run the table. I expected a pop today and since I am fully short when the markets dropped i decided to lighten my load a bit so I sold my April 875 puts (cost $51.20) for sixty bucks each and bought March 825's with the proceeds at $33.- each when the Markets rallied I sold those 825's at forty bucks and a little later at the high bought back my April 875's at $50.50 each. So my ladder is still intact I am 100% short and made real good coin. Now even when I was long remember i was still 80% short just hedging but today was a can't miss day. Use whatever methodology works for you but I can tell you for the e wavers on this board nothing that happened this week was unexpected. We are in the final rally before the drop max 870 or so-personally my gut feeling is we saw all of it today on that failed run to 853 Spoo's-we shall see! Mark that comment about the your Lawyer client and his wife the Dentist is priceless and so damn true-they get clobbered in the market and now will get clobbered as the real estate bubble blows up-like you I have zero sympathy for fools. trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 21, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Alex: Best to trade with the trend and alone, avoid the noise. I've been mostly long this week, good coin on EBAY, YHOO, XLNX. Didn't pull the trigger fast enough on CYMI, but still a profit. AMGN long looking kind of tired, but will let it run. I'll flip to the short side once a reversal is confirmed, when the 20-day MA is broken to the downside on decent volume. No need to get worked up over everyone else's opinions. Trade with your gut instead. Then your mistakes or success will be your own, and you won't have to blame it on following "tips" from anyone else. Might want to read that new Jesse Livermore book..... He got burned by too many false "tips".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Pls dont misunderstand - I'm not blaming anyone for my shorts. If you guys made money being short this week, all the more $$$ to you. All I'm saying is, I dont have the GUTS to keep getting pounded, like some of you out there. Or maybe I'm the only one who lost $$ and everyone else here is up for the week. Just being honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Good quote from my boy Adam Hamilton over on ZEALLLC.COM, tonights essay on the NAS 100 . We are now blessed with the rare opportunity to witness in realtime the subtle shift in general NASDAQ investor psychology from naked greed to cold, dark fear. Also, he indicates 47 of the NAS 100's are losing $$. Of the 53 remaining making "money"... total is 66 times earnings... for whatever they are worth. 1363 I talked about several times this week as a likely NAS ABC top.... and we will more than likely see that on Monday sometime... another 1 to 1.5% or whatever it shall be upward intra-day.... I dont see her running any higher, I could be wrong. Too many bears shitting in woods. Too many commercial shorts getting nastily short on the NAS 100 to be bullish yet.... VXN about to bust out after a brief pause this week... nobody is hooting and hollering the bear case like they were a few weeks or less ago here. SG only regrets he didnt cover like he normally does at the end of a wave.... but does not regret his 200% short position that was added to this week... not at all.... I know the next move is down much more so than up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Pls dont misunderstand - I'm not blaming anyone for my shorts. If you guys made money being short this week, all the more $$$ to you. All I'm saying is, I dont have the GUTS to keep getting pounded, like some of you out there. Or maybe I'm the only one who lost $$ and everyone else here is up for the week. Just being honest Alex: no big deal. Lost a small fortune once trading options. I don't do that anymore. I learned ewave back in 1984 and find that it helps me when I mix it in with the other indicators. Since I started applying it, I'm doin' better. My best regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 While eating lunch today and watching the ticker, an Oriental man asked me what was up with the big drop and the bigger rally. Rather than going into a diatribe about manipulation, e-waves and such, I simply said, "Fluctuations". He became rather angy and said, "Well, fluc you americans, too". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Alex-Peace-I think you can rest assured we were kidding-but you gave us the opening! If you are short and weren't holding Feb. puts you should be fine-this rally is all but kaput! Sometimes when you have a position and are waiting for the swing from upmove to downmove it's better to have a tight stop than hold and sweat-you can always get back in and you will sleep better- Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassandra Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Last Friday the big question was: who is more scared, the bulls or the bears? With a long weekend approaching and warnings of terrorist attacks abounding, one would think the bulls would be most scared. Alas, it was not to be. This Friday, same question, same answer. It appears Da Boyz are determined to keep the DJI above 8000. And the NDX has been very resistant to declining. Could it be another temporary bottom is in? It seems the teenage money managers will never run out of money to throw at these stocks. Just my gripe for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boy Plunger Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 So... refinery explosions are bullish... I'll have to add that bit of wisdom to my trading journal. This market can kiss my you-know-what. I've got April puts, and I'm holdin' 'em till May. <_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 22, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Cassandra: Keep your ear to the ground about redemptions. Without redemptions, no real money will leave the market. The HeatMapping of all these stocks like EBAY and AMGN is simply rotation out of poor stocks into the strongest ones. The massive liquidity bulge continues to feed the HedgeHogs, who continue to short naked, short on leverage, and thereby get squeezed regularly. HedgeHogs will always be our worst enema. They are shorting the same stocks we are, but in huge lots. Must be patient and wait for some more Eifuku blowups to cause a run out of these funds. Once again, liquidity rules. No real momentum to the downside will occur until the liquidity stops, Joe Public is forced to sell to raise cash, and a run on the Mutuals and HedgeHogs commences. In the meantime, follow the bouncing ball. Don't overload your positions unless we reach some type of market extreme. Right now, we are kind of in no-man's land. Neither overbought or Doversole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Attn: Pee Brain You are correct on the apartment market. That's how I make a living now, financing these obscene purchases. Just did two 6 unit properties in Manhattan Beach for $1.3 million and $1.7 million. Both were priced over 20x gross, and the borrowers had to put down 40%. Last one was an attorney and a wife who is a dentist. Combined gross income of over $1 million. He lost $750,000 of $2.9 million in the stock market the last two years, so he cashed all of his stocks in and just bought 3 such properties at the top of the market. We are currently in the blowoff top stage here. Apartments are being flipped every 3 months for fantastic gains. Single family houses near the beach are on fire, prospective buyers are paying realtors $25,000 cash to get them the first thing that becomes available, sight unseen. Builders who paid $400,000 for a lot in 2000, $600,000 last year, are now paying $800,000 - $900,000 now for a postage stamp sized lot if its in the Tree section or Sand section. Not even beachfront. Custom homebuilders are putting up $1.9 million "starter" homes. Total and complete insanity going on here in the housing market and auto market. No sign of any stress or slowdown. Hard for me to believe that the stock market will go down anytime soon as long as this insanity continues. This speculative mania in CA sounds vaguely familiar. Now I remember. Tokyo property prices in the late '80s and early '90s. When the land of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was supposedly worth more than all of California. A friend of my was going to buy a condo in Osaka, 300 sq metres, for USD 500,000. He knew that prices were falling, so he waited until the price stabilized at USD 300,000. Last year, I ask him how much he could sell it for? USD 150,000 and dropping. Back to the Future. What I want to know, is the CA Governor's mansion spread now worth more than all the land in Tokyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 When they sell it in the Cal. state bankruptcy auction, maybe they will get ten cents on the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 memo to self: Do not stop taking one's meds during option expiration week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 This must be why we haven't been hearing too much from Aussiebear recently (we can never hear TOO much from her, you know what I mean) -- she's been busy finishing up the screenplay for her new movie! From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (star-tribune.com if you want the whole article) "The Australian financial thriller "The Bank" might be the best commercial ever made for credit unions. To quote Obi Wan Kenobi, "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy" than the executive offices of CentaBank, a Melbourne titan bent on domination of the world's stock markets through advanced mathematics and Machiavellian scheming..... Ugly behind-the-scenes manipulations rooted in fear and greed, conniving high rollers, unfairly wronged small fry -- all the elements of a cracking good anti-corporate melodrama are here...." By the way, if newspapers were still edited properly, no one would have allowed a phrase like "unfairly wronged small fry" -- is that as opposed to FAIRLY wronged small fry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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