EasyAl Posted March 11, 2003 Report Share Posted March 11, 2003 Rich, Are you in any way related to the guy posted here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted March 11, 2003 Report Share Posted March 11, 2003 Unlike many main stream economists, Paul Krugman seems underestand how big mess that we are in today. I think his arguement would be more powerful if he had been just a little bit more apolitical. With war looming, it's time to be prepared. So last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage. It means higher monthly payments, but I'm terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits. From a fiscal point of view the impending war is a lose-lose proposition. If it goes badly, the resulting mess will be a disaster for the budget. If it goes well, administration officials have made it clear that they will use any bump in the polls to ram through more big tax cuts, which will also be a disaster for the budget. Either way, the tide of red ink will keep on rising. Last week the Congressional Budget Office marked down its estimates yet again. Just two years ago, you may remember, the C.B.O. was projecting a 10-year surplus of $5.6 trillion. Now it projects a 10-year deficit of $1.8 trillion. And that's way too optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office operates under ground rules that force it to wear rose-colored lenses. If you take into account ? as the C.B.O. cannot ? the effects of likely changes in the alternative minimum tax, include realistic estimates of future spending and allow for the cost of war and reconstruction, it's clear that the 10-year deficit will be at least $3 trillion. So what? Two years ago the administration promised to run large surpluses. A year ago it said the deficit was only temporary. Now it says deficits don't matter. But we're looking at a fiscal crisis that will drive interest rates sky-high. A leading economist recently summed up one reason why: "When the government reduces saving by running a budget deficit, the interest rate rises." Yes, that's from a textbook by the chief administration economist, Gregory Mankiw. But what's really scary ? what makes a fixed-rate mortgage seem like such a good idea ? is the looming threat to the federal government's solvency. Paul Krugman: Lock in fixed-rate mortgage now (New York Times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted March 11, 2003 Report Share Posted March 11, 2003 Does anyone have a chart on the SA Rand with indicators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted March 11, 2003 Report Share Posted March 11, 2003 Yosh, Can't find one either; however, it is bullish and offers >10%. Interesting setup for mr. vix; will add more shorts above resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Foreign currencies have had a great run. The sentiment has risen from abject bearishness to foaming bullishness. I think a small correction is in store for these bulls, while buck tries to stage a bear rally (where sentiment is very negative). The Aussie has taken a hit in the last 2 days. So has gold. This is a 'commodity' currency. Brit pound: ugly bull. Euro: looks toppy, with some negative divergences. Buck: possible bullish divergences in rsi and macd;may rally a bit. Yen is going to break out. hahaha. CRB index looks a little under the weather. Keep 'em bonds up at all costs. SPX sporting a possible reversal candle on the daily. Small positive divergences in macd and rsi (usually discounted in bear markets, but shall be interesting). So, we have a possible USD rally ahead, coupled with a bear rally in stocks, more bullishness in bonds and perhaps a small crack in the commodity basket. Sentiment re: foreign currencies needs some bashing, in order to stage more advances. Will all this stem the capital outflow from the US?? The behavior of commodity currencies can help evaluate the vital signs of the crb. Interesting times....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 ...and bouncy-wouncy we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 'HSS, produced by the Spanish company Polyphonic HMI, of Barcelona, looks for songs that match the musical traits of known hits. 'Polyphonic HMI's chief executive Mike McCready said: "There are a limited number of mathematical formulas for hit songs. We don't know why."' Hit formula Technicians have been trying to do this for years with stock market patterns -- find those that are reliably bullish or bearish. If it works with music, why not with mathematical time series, which are said to be a kind of frozen music? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Check out the 8pm mega-candle on Uncle Buck!!! Holy Crap Batman! :shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Just putting it back on the first page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Spy 85.88 looks like the cul de sac. ~853 spx. The 7 week cycle once again applied a brief cattle prodding to el sicko mkt. 6 month and 13 week cycles still down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted March 17, 2003 Report Share Posted March 17, 2003 Buck had fairly bullish divergences in the 13 week cycle and rsi (there are others), prior to the ramp. Swup ahead......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted March 17, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2003 Heeeeeeeeeeeee's back. :shocked Thanks to all our Canadian stoolies for having such a nice country to visit. I can't say I'm sorry to have missed all the fun last week. I'm flat and have no clue as to what the short term will bring except if I remember correctly it's OPEX. That should make for some more fun and games. I think I'll sit this dance out. I have run some charts. I also think we need a new Night Stool thread. This one is getting long in the tooth. Maybe Monday if I have the time. Meta it looks like you made some great calls last week. Thanks everyone for keeping Night Stool alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted March 17, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2003 I think I'm going to switch to playing weekly charts. Seems that dailies are death traps. Either intra-day or weeklys' might be better time frames? Last week will look like nothing on longer-term charts, eh? The Dow weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted March 17, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2003 9 and 18 month cycles ala Rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted March 17, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2003 FIB Time Series Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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