K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 RE: Deflation vs Inflation Take a look at the 2 charts below..pay attention to configuration of OEX in March 2003 after an almost 3 year decline...note dollar position today.. Be very careful shorting the dollar here..I don't want see you permainflationists carried out on a stretcher, like so many permabears who doubted the '03 stock bottom.. My guess is that Deflation is about to take the world full force fur a while..all of the cacamodities except for Metals and Energy have already crashed..Real Estate is clearly runnin' on fumes...Crude is in the process of making a huge top right here..jury is still out on the Metals, but I suspect they will tank if Uncle Buck completes the 4 year cycle low here..the amount of dollars about to be destroyed by viscious debt deflation is truly mind boggling.. I may be proven wrong......or not.. Watch the Canadian Dollar... it led the turn at the low in Feb, and it appears to be trying to turn while dollar index slides to what could be it's final low for many months to come..huge pivot area here..shouldn't take too much longer to resolve.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonmug Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 ...He also surmised that onther resource (hydrogen) will eventually be used (5 years). When it becomes cheaper than Oil. I agree on that point 100%. There is a huge cost in getting the pumps going. That day is approaching should oil hit 70+ and stay there. 5 years seems radically optimistic- wide-spread hydrogen use has large technological hurdles to overcome, having to do with the physics of the stuff... plus building a whole new infrastructure for distribution, storage, & conversion/ replacement of existing power plants... plus hydrogen is not a primary energy source as it has to be made by electrolysis of water, or by breaking down nat. gas into H2 & carbon by heating at high temperature. More of a transmission medium for energy, like electricity... OTOH, I just ran across this mention of a possibly more efficient process for generating H2 from water using solar energy... interesting. Still the energy density of sunlight is low. Which Stoolie will be the first to invent the FlatoMobile, the bean-fueled vehicle? some discussion & other articles- http://www.peakoil.com/post13834.html BBC article Introduction to photocatalyst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 What did Yobob take away from this place for himself. Awesome contributor TO the Stool, goes without saying. Did I read someone else earlier say that it was simply Yobob hittin' the silk -- not some perturbation . . . Why would he care what anyone else said, anyway. I interpret this event as a harbinger of looming doom. . .We're all here trying to gain something out of the decline, but Yobob & Hyper were just looking for the signal to bail our of harm's way. Trendwise: HT, Yobob, then who? If you can infer what I imply. Could start tomorrow -- but don't go by me. I blindly believe in the Crash, then the Culling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Guys, THERE ARE NO JOBS get it? After the last debate I was listneing to Air America. 32 year old guy called in nearly in tears. Said Bush made him so mad he was shaking " Community College!! Community College!!. I have three degrees , one of them from MIT and I've been unemployed for a year. The only interview I can get requires a high school diploma. I have one month's rent left - that's all. then I go on the street. " My contribution to the deflation argument. I will agree that the job market is very tight but there is something wrong with this particular picture. Either the guy's degrees are in useless fields or he doesn't know how to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Listening to Jason G at Ike's place from yesterday. He points to the P/C ratio being over one 4 out of 5 days last week and every time that has occured(5 times) The market was at least 5% higher 20 days later. I ain't betting that way no mo but, it is something to think about. If we don't get significantly below 1100 SPX manana, we prolly goin' up.. Bears gotta slam the Fannie hard manana..and take the rest of the market with 'er.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Listening to Jason G at Ike's place from yesterday. He points to the P/C ratio being over one 4 out of 5 days last week and every time that has occured(5 times) The market was at least 5% higher 20 days later. I ain't betting that way no mo but, it is something to think about. If we don't get significantly below 1100 SPX manana, we prolly goin' up.. Bears gotta slam the Fannie hard manana..and take the rest of the market with 'er.. Below 1092 should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Guys, THERE ARE NO JOBS get it? After the last debate I was listneing to Air America. 32 year old guy called in nearly in tears. Said Bush made him so mad he was shaking " Community College!! Community College!!. I have three degrees , one of them from MIT and I've been unemployed for a year. The only interview I can get requires a high school diploma. I have one month's rent left - that's all. then I go on the street. " My contribution to the deflation argument. I will agree that the job market is very tight but there is something wrong with this particular picture. Either the guy's degrees are in useless fields or he doesn't know how to look. I have not found the job market to be tight in South Florida or in Alberta, Canada. I recently turned down 2 decent job offers here in Ft. Lauderdale/Miami, and found an excellent job in Edmonton after a couple of weeks of looking. The point being that one guys experience doesn't mean a whole lot. BUT - I agree, Bush is a dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Two things to look at on this spx chart. One we almost kissed the trend line from underneath and fell apart. Two) we have a slight bullish divergence on the stokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 One other thing that is neutral. It took six days to go up and six to retest the 1100 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Two things to look at on this spx chart. One we almost kissed the trend line from underneath and fell apart. Two) we have a slight bullish divergence on the stokes. No such divergence on either fast (which just went thru zero line) or slow MACD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 K wave, You got a target for UNH. I have been short this for a very long time. Edit - I see a possible 4 handle. (48ish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Two things to look at on this spx chart. One we almost kissed the trend line from underneath and fell apart. Two) we have a slight bullish divergence on the stokes. No such divergence on either fast (which just went thru zero line) or slow MACD.. Good. I was just going to go there. Tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 60 min SPX... After acheiving a state momentum equilibrium, hourly chart really looks ready to break down here..bears gotta push right here, right now....It's the right war, the right place, and the right time.. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWD Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 RE: Deflation vs Inflation Take a look at the 2 charts below..pay attention to configuration of OEX in March 2003 after an almost 3 year decline...note dollar position today.. Be very careful shorting the dollar here..I don't want see you permainflationists carried out on a stretcher, like so many permabears who doubted the '03 stock bottom.. My guess is that Deflation is about to take the world full force fur a while..all of the cacamodities except for Metals and Energy have already crashed..Real Estate is clearly runnin' on fumes...Crude is in the process of making a huge top right here..jury is still out on the Metals, but I suspect they will tank if Uncle Buck completes the 4 year cycle low here..the amount of dollars about to be destroyed by viscious debt deflation is truly mind boggling.. I may be proven wrong......or not.. Watch the Canadian Dollar... it led the turn at the low in Feb, and it appears to be trying to turn while dollar index slides to what could be it's final low for many months to come..huge pivot area here..shouldn't take too much longer to resolve.. A "Herstatt risk" event could make this happen. Some big failures that take down their creditors, that take down their creditors, etc., creating the pattern of "cascading cross-defaults." It would be literal deflation; most of the money supply, consisting of credit balances would disappear in a matter of weeks, maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 A "Herstatt risk" event could make this happen. Some big failures that take down their creditors, that take down their creditors, etc., creating the pattern of "cascading cross-defaults." It would be literal deflation; most of the money supply, consisting of credit balances would disappear in a matter of weeks, maybe less. My guess is, that the wave of defaults has already begun under the surface..and will soon reveal itself as a massive Tidal Wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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