There are no more operative red channels on the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures. That means the only thing to stop a rally will be uptrending resistance or loss of demand momentum. A 5 day cycle projection suggests that that's likely around 5265, but the conventional measured move target of the reverse head and shoulders breakout looks higher. Depending on how its drawn, it could be 5270-5285.
A 5 day cycle high is ideally due this morning, so after the expected rally, a couple of weaker days would be in order. Spport levels that would need to be broken to get anything going on the downside would be 5238 and 5224 for starters.
If they clear last week's high of 5260, then we'll be looking at 5300 PDQ.
For moron the markets, see:
The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024
Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving March 24, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stocks Barnburner Set for Conflagration March 23, 2024
Gold Enters Hibernation Season March 22, 2024
Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag March 20, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
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I went into the day nearly half short. However, I kept getting cover signals and by the end I was only 10% short. But I made zip on the day. Hopefully the longs will make good Tamara.
Let the paydowns begin. But only after a massive coupon settlement. The End Is Not Nigh
Date
Security Type
Total Offering
Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
04/02/2024
Bills
$215,000
$240,961
$(25,961)
04/01/2024
Coupons
$217,000
$92,224
$124,776
03/28/2024
Bills
$213,000
$216,999
$(3,999)
03/28/2024
Coupons
$16,000
$0
$16,000
We will test that maxim in the 7-8 AM hour in New York as the ES 24 hour S&P futures run into a trend resistance convergence at 5233. If they clear that little obstacle, there will be immediate running room to 5250.
If they don't clear it, they won't have far to go to hit the first spport level, which is around 5218-20. If they break that, then they should pull it back to test yesterday's low around 5205.
So once again, it doesn't look like a very exciting day again. Only if the market breaks out of that range is a real move likely. The 5 day cycle up phase hasn't gotten off the ground and a high is due in that cycle today or tomorrow. Mid day Thursday to Friday's close and perhaps Monday present a better chance of a breakdown from this range. That assumes no upside breakout today. The End Is Not Nigh
For moron the markets, see:
The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024
Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving March 24, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stocks Barnburner Set for Conflagration March 23, 2024
Gold Enters Hibernation Season March 22, 2024
Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag March 20, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024
A Top is In, But Which One Is It March 17, 2024
Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes March 15, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.