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IDS World Market Thur 5th March 09


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from other forum (xtreds.blogspot.com) by Kemal_1

 

I see no evidence for an impending bottom. Tomorrow will be another down day. I still count the current move as wave 5 of 3 of 5.

 

The SPX had a HS with neckline around 695 (peak at 724). 665 appear to be a very conservative target. A HS can easily exceed the target.

 

The EUR/USD hasn't even started to drop. In addition, a prolonged market rout with several -4% days usually exposes more weakness, some times at places no one expects it. The lower Bollinger band is at 669.

 

Bottom line: I will not cover any shorts today. Tomorrow, however, I may cover 20% if we get into the 650 - 665 area. I prefer to be somewhat more conservative than others here. The actual IM bottom may well be where Atilla mentioned (550 - 600).

 

The risk is that a wave 4 of 5 will take the SPX 50 - 70 points higher before that target is reached.

 

Why Am I quoting him? because he made good calls many times...

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from other forum (xtreds.blogspot.com) by Kemal_1

 

 

 

Why Am I quoting him? because he made good calls many times...

 

Kemal is good. I also think he's right. I think we'll see some profit taking by shorts here and close above 680 (unless the redemption dumpage kicks in like yesterday) and the bulls will think that is some kind of a victory.

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it's amazing the panic selling hasn't begun yet

 

I don't know if it will. The Plunge Protection Team we have in the U.S. tries, when practical, to keep the market from plunging a large amount in one day. It is too difficult to influence the market long-term, so they can't do that. But in the short run they can sometimes manage to keep selloffs "orderly", that is to keep the trading curbs from being hit, or even to keep the Dow from dropping more than 300 or 400 points in a day. Can't always do that but they do their best.

 

Some people misunderstand the PPT's purpose. It isn't to keep the market from falling at all-- it's too difficult to do that long-term-- especially as most of the money they were using has been diverted to bailouts and such. I think they have found that they can pull more traders into going along with them if they buy the quads instead of the peeps, so apparently they are doing that more now.

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