simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG dings in for the weekend Well, one helluva profitable E wave week kids. SG went short LAST FRIDAY morning, and held until the Thursday close. I closed out 50% on THursday night (ouch), and the rest not yet. I see the NDX getting near the 998-1000 level, meaning Q's around 25 to 25.05 range early in week. SG advises "traders" to cover and go long, or just go into cash for a short period there. SG will probably game the tape and go LONG at those levels. So far my wave counts have been smack on the money if I do say so myself. Wave 2 ended on Jan 10 or Jan 13. Wave 3 began down from there, and started in more force the last 2 days of the week. Now, we are in Wave 3 of 3 of 3... this is huge. The first leg of this wave will end around 1000 on the NDX. We closed at 1017. 998-1000 is a 78.6% Fibonacci retrace, its a huge retrace of the January wave 2 move up. During a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd... retraces are big.... Now, that said, you want to be aggressive like me?? Then you go LONG with leverage at the levels cited above. You will see a minimum retracement of 38-50 NDX points, or 3.8 to 5% ish. If Im in at my usual double leverage, I will catch 4-10% return, then immediate re-short at same 200% leverage. Here are some levels to watch on the Q's and NDX 25.02 bottom early in week, like Tuesday morning sometime. A retrace to near $26, with possible spill up to 26.25 range... (I dont see that happening, but will allow for it) This to be followed by a huge cascading leg down to about $21.85 on the Q's. This is a NEW number I've updated. This may occur over a few weeks time, not right away mind you. Ultimately, as leg 3 finishes in early march, we should be well below $20 per Q share.... but I will worry about that more later. So, in summary. If you are short... cover on Tuesday morning around 25 ish on Q's. Go into cash or go long short term. If you are not short, then prep to enter a massive short at or near 25.90 to 26 ranges.... as I will... I could be wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG- Having you around is like having our own Capitalstool.com Ouija Board. Even the personality's the same! Many tanks fer droppin' 'em in, SG! Doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG posts a chart that agrees with his Wave count on the NAS 100.... we are finishing up minute wave 3 (within the first wave or leg down) This should reverse at 998-1000 on NDX short term IMO. Green highlighted area shows the close on Friday night at 1017. I expect a bounce off 998-1000 on Tuesday and a brief rally to 1051 area likely... If I can catch this on my Rydex fund timing wise, I will play it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Glad to here you see some sort of pop here cuz my VV shorting strategy is finally beginning to find a larger pool of turds for a new Stoolie Shortfolio. Man, its been a long time since the last one. I'll use the green day(s) ahead to begin legging in. Thanks for update ! Its all coming together quite nicely, isn't it! Doc, thanks for putting this collaborative web-site together...the web finally has a real purpose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 And it's name is Flipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG Tanks for the work. Those charts have been my bread and butter for my last three plays. They played out last Spring, Summer and Fall like clockwork :wink2: These last couple of months have been agonizing waiting for an entry. Hood is stickin to the 3 to 6 week tankage run as usual. I dont have SG's gonads. Gonna ride the small pops up until its time for Elvis to leave the building. SG you are a true phenom. Like The End says....Its great having you as a Stoolie.... on "The best damn website for people like us" :grin: What are are the odds of us all finding Doc's site with its outstanding collection of " money making misfits". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Doc, can I adjust my settings so when I go to a post I go to the last entry instead of having an extra step with going to the bottom of the page to click last page?? Is there an easier way to copy/ paste? thanks and great site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Traders and investors tend to get in their own way. If you keep it simple and find a method that takes the "emotions" out of it, you should conceivably be able to make dramatic dollars trading. Must follow SG rules though 1. Dont game the tape daily, weekly... not daily 2. Use leverage, go in with a full position for a short term window 3. Be patient, use your strategy, dont let your emotions change your rules of the game, thats when you make mistakes 4. Take profits 5. See 4 6. Get rich quickly slowly... Lets break it down on #6. If I use Rydex at 200% with each trade, and I do the following: 1. Each month aim for 4 profitable swing trades of 3% moves each. This means 6% return to me on each trade. If this is done only 4 times in a month, its a 24% compounded return or better, monthly. 2. I allocate all of my capital on THE TRADE. This is why I use Rydex funds, its old school. But, I dont game individual stocks this way, I remove alot of external events from the success ratio (Like individual stock blow ups). 3. My money compounds without needing to trade daily whatsoever. If I make the 4 trades in the first 2 weeks, fine, Im done for the month. 4. Use the Elliot Waves to filter out your emotions so your trading is more likely to be successful. Assuming I do this, My money doubles every 3 months or less. $100,000 turns into $1,600,000 in 12 months. And it all happens with 3% trade successes.... Sounds too good to be true doesnt it? Perhaps it is.... Back it down to only 2 successful 3% swing trades at 200% leverage each month. Then I double my money every 6 months $100,000 turns into $400,000 in 12 months. Dont think you can do it??? Now that I've broken it down, it doesnt seem so daunting does it? You dont need to be buying options, trading stocks every day, sweating bullets every week.... you get rich fast slowly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Thanks for the input here SG I am using your counts all the way. Who woulda thunk it .....E-Wave Clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubbaBear Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG, thanks for all your input-you da man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Simple Guy you are a "wunder", a "wundertrader" thanks for make it clear that one doesnt need to follow these sophisticated mathematicall money managment approaches. Recently i read an interview with Van K. Tharp (a "trainer" of traders so they said ) and he says one should only use 1% of his account, in extreme cases maybe 3% for a trade I think that is pure nonsense! If we would trade like in the casino, then his approach would be ok, maybe, but why should a trader when all his reasons for entering a tade are met only risk 1% of his capital? I dont get it, he isnt a trader than i would say. If one would have 1 million in his account that would mean he only risks 10k for a trade What i found so unique about you SG is that you show that it isnt only maths, maybe maths is the lesser part of trading, the bigger part is "THE SACK" Your example with quadrouble (right? ) in just 12 months, with just an easy, not that monster style risky approach is also more than true. My problem is that till now i wasnt mentally able to follow this, but it is the truth, here an example from forex trading: - you have an account with 10k - you open only 2 lots at each trade - if dollar moves just 15 pips you get 300 dollars - you have every day only the aim to make those 300 dollars - means you make 1500 dollars each week - 6000 dollars each month - and damn fornicateing 72,000 dollars each year! your risk: almost nothing! You follow 3 or 4 currency pairs carefully, there is always a trednline, a fibo, a MA, a damn overbought sdituation and so on somewhere and there are special situation when money is given: When GDP or other major data comes out you place a stop buy just 10-20 pips over market for USD/JPY and for EUR/USD, the big move comes, the one stop will be triggered and makes you fat money, the other stop you just delete cause it wasnt triggered (that worked quite often for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxxPain Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 I think you could implement the same strategy using futures and have some more flexibility because you can trade any time of the day. A E-mini Nasdaq 100 contract is 20 x the index or about $20000. You could go long or short 200% with $10000 in your account. If you have more confidence in your plan nothing would stop you from even more leverage but I'm too chicken. A E-mini S&P 500 is 50 x index or about $45000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 FX thats a howl...1-3%. I got 11 bucks left in my cash account everything is now commited to the trade. Like Doc said once......90% of what we do is wait for the charts to tell us its time....or something like that. No guts, no glory :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Brilliant analysis SG. Not to be a show off but DogBoy called for a major market bottom in "last two weeks of Feb 03" about 5 months ago. It's in the Stool archive if you care to look for it. That said SG is a brilliant dude with his calls on short/intermediate trends. And the combination of Doc and SG is a literal "tour-de-force" for market watchers like myself. DogBoy doesn't normally play the short time frame but it's fun to watch Stoolies kickin some tail with your calls. Top market anal cysts according to DB (not in any particular order): Doc Zeal SG Best market interview site: Ike's MARKETVIEWS.TV DB PUTz his FULL faith and money in these guys. Like Doc feels about options, DB feels the same way about day trading. He tried it once with mixed results but it made DB a nervous wreck and he felt like he was on a emotional roller coaster. A very disagreeable time for DB that he never wants to re-visit. But I do admire short term traders. Heck, DB might even toss in some "mad money" on some short term positions here. The real interesting thing to DB is what this says about the prospects for the upcoming War in Iraq. It seems like a very BAD portent of things to come. I hope some miracle happens and the War is avoided but then I'm realistic as well. It's a major long shot. I sure as hell wouldn't not want to be one of those many Bulls on the tube that are about to get taken out and slaughtered. SG, keep up the great work and much thanks !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 the moment of truth approaches rapidly. Given the horrible internals, overly-optimistic sentiment, bearish ewaves and cycles its pretty clear which way she breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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