PileDriver Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 the moment of truth approaches rapidly. Given the horrible internals, overly-optimistic sentiment, bearish ewaves and cycles its pretty clear which way she breaks. The multi-month meandering is just about over and none too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxxPain Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Lind-Waldock has a simulated trading account that is free for one month. Interactive Brokers has very low fees for trading stock index futures. A disadvantage of futures is that you have to purchase big chunks or contracts. You can't buy half of a contract. You either buy $20000 or $40000 of the Nasdaq 100. You can't buy $30000 worth because that would be 1.5 contracts. The initial margin is low at $2250 for e-mini Nasdaq 100 so with $10000 you can easily buy 2 contracts if you want that much leverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Dog Boy Thanks for the kudos, you are entirely too kind. There are much better traders than I out there. As far as daytrading, I agree 100%. I dont day trade... I week trade.... and usually each week I MAY have a position for 1-3 days max... or none at all. Daytrading can get you into hot water.... I will call it E wave trend trading instead... Thanks again... but my abilities to be consistently right will at some point be tested. One must stay humble to continue to outsmart the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robinhoodlum Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 long live capitalstool! tanks doc, sg, and dr.b... dont know where id be without u guys....wait yes i do, that would be the poor house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Few more tidbits The 21 day MA of the Put to Call index option is near one of its lowest points in 2 years or close ... (BEARISH) The amount of small traders with LONG contracts on the NAS 100 is at its HIGHEST in over 2 years (Bearish) SG again reiterates to wait for the small retrace bounce this week, and short the piss out of it.... I have done my NDX analysis all the way out to the end of this major big wave 3. I will not share it all here, lest you all really begin to think Im a witch... heh heh... Suffice to say, I am calling for a bottom on the NDX at about 750 before its all over. We closed at 1017 on Friday. During this wave 3, there will be some opps to go long and short, and maximize this move. Keeping that in mind, I could be wrong at anytime. I will try to continue my trading diary during this wave 3... as at a minimum it shall be quite interesting indeed. Right now, I am waiting for a bounce to get full short with leverage... Im looking for NDX at about 1000 hopefully to go DONG and then reshort at 1040-1050.... ish... Lets see what unfolds Tuesday. There is a VERY VERY outside chance the indices could still run up and test those Dec 2 highs.... I give this about a 5% shot. So dont lose sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Great Advice SG! Looks like we could hit 67 or thereabout on VNX before it correct back to 64-65 range. I plan on going 50% net long on VNX at that time since last week caused great trauma for the BULLS. (although they don't realize it yet vis' a vis' la VIX.) By the end of Wave 3 target in March timeframe, I would expect to begin cashing out profits around 130-140 range to preapre for the VYX setup to go long around 7-7.50 range. Lookin' like 2003 will be a great year to trade this BEAR yet again. In case the Stoolies have'nt caught Adam Hamiliton's latest, it is a MUST-READ! "Bear Market Rally Autoposy 2" http://www.zealllc.com/2003/autopsy2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DONOTKNOWSHIT Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG-----You are da man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG has a scary target My ultimate low potential on the NDX before wave 3 is finished is as low as GULP.... 537.... we closed at 1017 on Friday.... I think we can all do the math. Right now my official target is 750.... just wanna let y'all know the magnitude of this move and it's possible potential... I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted January 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Does the elimination of double taxation on dividends mean the markets will rise? Heh heh... yeah sure... Real Estate Investment Trusts and Utilities already enjoy immunity from double taxation of dividends and that has not kept their stocks from declining with the bear market. Bottom line, elimination of "double taxation" is not a cure for the pessimism with which investors regard the stock market What it does mean is executives will now have more tax-free income and preferential treatment. I.E. Microsoft's joke of a 3/10 of 1% dividend is largely aimed at its large shareholders, such as Mr Gates and others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Such a lovely double bottom on that RYDEX chart, Realist. Oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Courtesy of "Cybersavvy" If this count plays out as last years "wave 3 decline" than it should be ood for a 550 point decline in COMPX. Target 2002: W3 begin from 1750 to end W3 to 1200 Target 2003: W3 begin from 1460 to end W3 to 910 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG has a scary target My ultimate low potential on the NDX before wave 3 is finished is as low as GULP.... 537.... we closed at 1017 on Friday.... I think we can all do the math. Right now my official target is 750.... just wanna let y'all know the magnitude of this move and it's possible potential... I could be wrong... NDX 537. Well if that's what it's gonna take to shake the 57% households invested in equities out of the tree then we'll probably have to go there, now won't we?! They are a tenacious bunch - like leeches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmoid Friend Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 SG has a scary target My ultimate low potential on the NDX before wave 3 is finished is as low as GULP.... 537.... we closed at 1017 on Friday.... I think we can all do the math. Right now my official target is 750.... just wanna let y'all know the magnitude of this move and it's possible potential... I could be wrong... NDX 537. Well if that's what it's gonna take to shake the 57% households invested in equities out of the tree then we'll probably have to go there, now won't we?! They are a tenacious bunch - like leeches The Sheeple are not tenacious, IMO, as much as asleep or doing their utmost to ignore the elephant (or grizzly bear!) in the living room. They hope to wake from the bad dream of the past hree years and find that things are once again just fine. But when they finally awake, they will find that things are unthinkably worse then they thought. Denial will turn to fear and then into panic; finally, it will end in mass despair. As Napoleon said, "When China awakes, the whole world will tremble." So it will be with the Sheeple. I know the Sheeple well. I used to be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Agreed SF. At this rate of "crapitualtion" NAZ has to get pummeled to a pulp to around 500 (90% drop) to wake the masses out of their sleep. It will be one hell of a show. Heck that's only a 50% drop from here - not too far out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Boing! Meow! *Looooong Whistle* Thwap! Boing! etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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