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Incredibly Bearish Count


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(UPDATE, 2/24 -- after all the conjecture round and round with different counts, we are now back to this first count as the most-likely... although I still give the 1-2 count (Jan. decline being 1) a decent possibility.)

 

TE and I have been chatting about the possibility that a contracting-triangle B wave is developing (first suggested to us by Larry T.). This got me thinking, and I wanted to see how this count "felt," so I charted it out (see below).

 

This is one alternate count every bear should be aware of right now. We should know pretty quickly if it has any validity. If it's to come to pass, we'll see the SPX rally up to 875-880 (possibly higher) in wave "e" of the triangle, to get the last hopers on board. If that happens, LOOK OUT BELOW. This sucker will go down in ? of C (which is the exact same thing as a (3) of 3... C's are third waves, with very bearish implications -- think "C" as in "Crash").

 

I gotta say: it's an alternate count, but it "feels" right to me. This type of decline might be just what the Doctor (pun intended) ordered to turn those bulls absolutely bearish, and finally put an end to this era of rabid speculation. And we're heading into OpEx jam week... AND MaxPain just happens to be 880 on the SPX, last I checked. So the fuel might be there to get us to the required levels.

 

We should know by the end of the week if it's going to play out this way. I welcome anyone's feedback.

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The problem with the trinagle is that the move from August into October is a 5, whereas triangles are supposed to go 3-3-3-3-3, unless one of the waves extends in which case that should also subdivide into threes.

 

In my view one of the key problems with Zoran?s count is also related to incorrect subdivisions for triangles. I?ll try to respond more fully to that thread when I get the chance.

.

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Good job Prztl. :wink2:

 

Major,

 

That has given me a problem as well and i emailed zoran about it a while ago. He thinks it's a triple zig-zag and therefore corrective.

 

If you notice each of the three waves down (of the 5) are of the same length.

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I do not expect any type of sustained bounce ( blip). until all major indexes come down and kiss their daily .786 fib levels

 

SPX... 808

NAZ ...1198

D. Jones... 7592

 

so, If one gets there first, the others will just have to flop around until all are hit...... hey, anybody can rattle these bones.....

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Listened again the Chris Locke on Crapvision-Europe this morning. Those who don't know him - he's an excellent technician (despite the fact that he's a regular Crapvision guest - every Wednesday morning) and has been very bearish for a long, long time.

 

This time he showed an Elliott Wave chart of the SPX. According to his count, the 5-wave down move ended with the July lows - not with the October lows. The market has been in an ABCDE sideways corrective move since - wave A (up) ending in August, wave B (down) ending in October, wave C (up) ending in December. Currently we're in wave E (down), which he expects to have 5 subwaves and end around the October lows. Another bear market rally should follow (wave E up) which should take the index below the December highs. A big down move will start afterwards.

 

Any comments about the validity of this count from our e-wave experts here?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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Sorry Vess

 

No insight here.

 

However I have seen that count here and there. And it makes some sense

 

I saw Locke on TV Thanksgiving when we were in London and was amazed by the respect he was given. Crapvision in Europe must take TA seriously I guess.

 

Here he would be....................

 

well you know

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Veselin,

 

I try to watch Chris Locke whenever I can and agree he is usually on the ball. Caught a brief glimpse of him this morning but all I saw was a chart with the A-B-C portion you mentioned, not the -D-E bit.

 

My understanding of his count is that he has a flat correction starting with the July lows. In order for that count to be valid, the decline into October which appears to be a 5 would have to terminate at the end of what seems to be the third wave of that move. The C leg would then itself be an expanded flat with a 3 at the small squiggle in what appears to be the fourth wave, a 3 going down to the October price lows and then a 5 up in to the Dec (Jan?) highs.

 

I don?t personally buy this interpretation though it would appear at least that portion agrees with Zoran. But in my view (baring the -D-E stuff) we seem get to the same point in different ways namely that we are now in the third wave down.

 

 

TE,

 

I have a problem with several of Zoran?s triangles :blink: Could you please clarify exactly where he has triple zigzags?

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Caught a brief glimpse of him this morning but all I saw was a chart with the A-B-C portion you mentioned, not the -D-E bit.

He said that verbally during his comments - that "we seem to be in an ABCDE correction".

 

In order for that count to be valid, the decline into October which appears to be a 5 would have to terminate at the end of what seems to be the third wave of that move.

 

I remember that I was pretty convinced that the July lows were the intermediate-term low and was quite surprised that we fell lower in October (although not as low as I expected - I expected at least one or two additional down days). I was convinced back then that the 5 waves down move had ended in July. Several other of my indicators suggested that the July low was "stronger". I still don't understand why the price fell lower on less bearish states of the indicators...

 

But in my view (baring the -D-E stuff) we seem get to the same point in different ways namely that we are now in the third wave down.

 

Oh, there is a big difference. If it's an ABCDE, we're unlikely to fall below the October lows at the end of this move. That won't come until much later, after yet another strong bounce. If, instead, SG's count is correct, we're headed much lower immediately. The fact that we aren't breaking down as hard as a wave 3 of 3 usually does has made me seek all kinds of alternate wave counts lately...

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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He said that verbally during his comments - that "we seem to be in an ABCDE correction".

At what degree though?

 

?an ABCDE correction" I suppose implies a triangle, but as I said above I don?t believe that fits. Furthermore, I have seen Locke label the September 2001-March 2002 rally a B wave. Leaving aside the thorny question of at what degree that suggests we were/are in a wave 2, where triangles are not supposed to occur.

 

The fact that we aren't breaking down as hard as a wave 3 of 3 usually does has made me seek all kinds of alternate wave counts lately...

 

. . which is a good thing.

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At what degree though?

Didn't mention.

 

BTW, he knows about this site - he's registered as "Oyster". He just posted a message to the gold forum. I doubt that he'll have the time to post often, though.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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