Pretzel Logic Posted February 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2003 This time he showed an Elliott Wave chart of the SPX. According to his count, the 5-wave down move ended with the July lows - not with the October lows. The market has been in an ABCDE sideways corrective move since - wave A (up) ending in August, wave B (down) ending in October, wave C (up) ending in December. Currently we're in wave E (down), which he expects to have 5 subwaves and end around the October lows. Another bear market rally should follow (wave E up) which should take the index below the December highs. A big down move will start afterwards. Any comments about the validity of this count from our e-wave experts here? Regards, Vesselin Vess, This is essentially the count I'm showing... the first leg ending at the July lows. Then a up, b down, c up... and there's where you lose me. The counts should alternate: you have us skipping d down and going right to e down? By this count, e should not be a down wave at all. If c is up (as I charted with this alternate): d would be the down wave (and current wave, by the count shown), then e would be up (and largely unpredictable), THEN we'd head down in earnest in the third wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 12, 2003 Report Share Posted February 12, 2003 http://www.invest-store.com/cgi-bin/capita.../searchproc.cgi Major, Neely, whom, Zoran follows does NOT enlist the powers of Pure Elliott theory. Buy the book at the above link and see for your self. The zig-zag i was reffering to was the "b" wave from August- Oct. I also believed it was an impulse wave but, after chatting with Zoran and seeing what Tomlinson is Writing every day, It could be a triple zig-zag. Whatever! The market is still toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Here's an udder potential for the way this might play out (shown in gray). Basically the same thing Oyster and K Wave were talking about. This would have the bounce coming from around the October lows (780ish, to complete wave d), then up toward 850ish in wave e. However, e waves are notoriously unpredictable, so the bounce might be very short, or longer than expected. THEN down hard in © of C. Either way, the friggin' market is toast. It's just a question of where that 3rd wave will start. I'm still short and holding from 930. If we get any kind of bounce at the Oct. lows, I intend to sell my dog on e-bay and sock every cent I can find into puts. Important Disclaimer: puts are a bad idea for everyone else. Options trading is only for complete morons. I trade options only because I am a complete moron, and was dropped on my head repeatedly as a child. Also, I ate a lot of lead paint chips. Please don't trade options unless you want to lose all your money. The last person who traded options not only lost all their money, but also went into a fit of sneezing which lasted six weeks and ended in his death; plus, every now and then, little worms would burrow out of his skin, and he also developed a sudden fondness for "light" beer. There. You've been warned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Neely, whom, Zoran follows does NOT enlist the powers of Pure Elliott theory. Buy the book at the above link and see for your self. TE, I appreciate the tip, but I actually bought that book some time ago though I can?t honestly say I finished it. I found the obsession with developing precise, detailed mathematical based rules counterintuitive and tedious in the extreme. More fundamentally I am concerned with what I perceive as a reliance on fib-based timing in the Neely method. In my view this is inconsistent with wave theory; where price action and form as opposed to time is the final (actually only) arbiter according to my reading. To illustrate the point look at the way Zoran has labelled the bottom of what is for him supercycle wave 2. 1965-74 forms a fairly good specimen of an expanding EW triangle. But Zoran and Neely are not satisfied with this because Neely has apparently invented a rule about the time a subsequent up-move takes to clear the prior correction. Instead he has the supercyle degree bottom finishing at the same price as the end of what otherwise appears a perfectly good impulse wave coming out of the end of the fifth wave of that triangle. This type of result is in my view completely absurd and has forced me at least temporarily to reject the Neely method out of hand until such a time as I find the opportunity and patience to go through the book in more detail. Whatever! The market is still toast. Agreed, but these distinctions will obviously become increasingly important as we progress down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 As a position BEAR this pattern has me worried short ter. on the 4 hour chart.....which I hinted on around close yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Thanks, Prtzl, I've moved the message to the correct thread. Folks, "Oyster" is Chris Locke that I keep telling you about. It's a great honor to have him here. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted February 13, 2003 Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Scary Chart for a bear Oyster. Here is the S&P daily showing a bullish wedge.............but it has broken down. Might be a fakeout and it might jump back into the wedge but at this moment it looks like a failed bullish pattern to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2003 Clearly below Ned's bullish wedgie today -- looks like we rallied up to back-test the lower line? Or by Oyster's chart, it looks like we're back into it. btw, Oyster, great to have you here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Oyster, Welcome aboard! You can?t imagine how delighted I am to see you posting here. As we say round these parts: what a touch! I don?t really feel worthy to comment on your chart, but based on what I can see I would tend to take the view that what you have labeled as circled 3 is at a different degree to your circled 1. At your circled 3 I have the third minuette of the first minute. It seems to me the action yesterday completed the first minuette of the third minute and we are now in what appears a sharp correction that could take us to the 840 area. Any thoughts on that? BTW, not to cast any aspersions on your undoubted expertise but may I enquire whether that highly desirable piece of software you are using is capable of generating counts automatically? Also I understand you use Elliot, Gann, and cycles in your work. If you have the opportunity I?d be very interested how you rank these different disciplines and what you prefer for various timeframes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Hey Oyster, are you from Montreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 15, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Hmm. Haven't had a chance to look over the charts much yet, just got in -- however... the count on the first chart is looking more probable now. With today's action, we may now be in the "e" wave up to 870-880ish. Thursday's low has the look of a decent ST low. Could get very interesting for the bears if 880 is hit... I'll have to look at everything more carefully this weekend, and update then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Has anyone noticed that the longer term indicators (those beyond the hourly/daily timeframe) are still slamming lower and actually fell more on Friday? My fine collection of used toilet paper barely budged yesterday. :grin: "Precise timing can humble the best of market technicians; stay with the primary trends!" - Mike Hartman, Financial Sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 16, 2003 Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 Vessilin, there's a discussion of the very Q you pose over on Crystal Ball. There appears to be a biFURcation of opinion to this casual EWave observer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 16, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 Okay, here's an update. First, it's a tad early to know for certain where to count our little Thursday/Friday rally. This is just a best guess at this point... the next few trading days should clarify things. I'm showing two counts on this chart, the red abcde, with us heading up in e of ( b ) of C... and another count in gray (grey for the Brits). On the gray count (which is the same as the red count up until c of ( b ) ): we've already completed d and e, and completed 1 of ? of C, and are currently heading up in 2. I actually like this count better for two reasons: 1) ADX turned up considerably on the decline from January -- the sharpest upmove in 6 months -- indicating the start of a new trend; note also that it has turned down on the recent rally, indicating that it is most-likely corrective. 2) MACD had a rising support line off the July low, which was broken w/ the January decline. So... assuming 1 is complete: the gray count has us in 2 of ? of C. I would look for wave 2 target of 855, 871, or 885. Although, I wouldn't expect us to retrace more than 50% if we're currently in the "big" ? of C. After 2 concludes, this targets 677-646 before the next correction of note. This has become my favored scenario. I realize I'm going a little bit out on a limb here, but what the hell. What else are limbs for? :grin: The intermediate result is essentially the same for either count. Be aware that there is one other, bullish (only on the intermediate-term) possibility... and that would have us just completing a "b" wave down, with us now starting up in "c" of ( b ). If that's the count, we're about to start a pretty nasty rally and THEN collapse (after all your money is gone). I don't like this count for the reasons outlined above, but it's still out there as a possibility. Of some interest, there are NO counts that put us in a new bull market yet. THIS IS JUST FOR DISCUSSION, MAKE YOUR OWN TRADING DECISIONS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 16, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 Some more interesting charts (from VTO report): COT report... Commercial traders (yellow, smart money) have been adding to their short positions on the way down, while small traders (green, your father-in-law) have been adding to longs: Bullish advisors minus bearish advisors... nowhere near an important bottom: And another way to look at the putz/call ratio -- with a simple trend-channel drawn in: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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