anjing bau Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Check out the dow chart thread I started over on LOB... My opinion is that we rally for 3-8 days here with an upside tgt of 8150-8250( max) on the dow. SnP 860+/-. We had 21 days of downtrend on the SnP .... a correction of 3-8 days makes ense to me. Buddha the fans on the IDS thread are blind to the charts IMSO I closed out a bunch of shorts on the thursday morning swoon inspite of the Rhetoric posted on IDS.... "wimps are covering here..." It is key to come to your own conclusion no matter what some others post and inspite of track records. We owe a dutyu to ourselves to " create our own track record" Buddha check out Traders-talk.com for a more objective T/A analysis in MSO ( my simple opinion) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 I noticed today many bears very nervous, and nervous is good; however can you imagine how the bulls feel? Just trying to keep it all in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 SG loves this thread... but must chime in here 1. When Mark gets nervous, its a contrary indicator... no offense mark 2. Regarding options... I have said over and over again, I DONT DO OPTIONS... quickest way to lost your trading monies... eventually you will... just like going to the casino... 3. Im not panicking like half the stoolies are here. My retrace counts were slightly off... but I still see valid retraces going on here that are OK 23.30 on the QQQ turned out to be end of minuette wave 3, and wave 4 began there... its turning into a hysterical *(typical 78.6) retrace.... 24.42 would be 50%, 24.65 61.8%, and 25.02 is the magic 78.6 retrace.... If we go above 25.02... then I cover... but if not, I stand pat. Dont be in the game if you are not willing to suffer some short term losses, and take the emotional pain that comes with it for sure. Losses hurt more than gains feel good... no doubt. If we go over 25.02 on GOOD VOLUME, then I cover and hide.... Dont see it happening... but we shall see... Targets remain 1341 ish on NAS as a normal retrace off the recent huge downleg from 1470 to 1260..... 210 points.... 80 points retrace out of 210 downleg is a 38.6% retrace gang... Thats about 2% more up... thats about 50 odd cents probably on the Q's.... or 25.02.... Keep your heads on and dont lose your head.... people get hysterical during 3rd waves... its how you lose money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Check out the dow chart thread I started over on LOB... My opinion is that we rally for 3-8 days here with an upside tgt of 8150-8250( max) on the dow. SnP 860+/-. We had 21 days of downtrend on the SnP .... a correction of 3-8 days makes ense to me. Buddha the fans on the IDS thread are blind to the charts IMSO I closed out a bunch of shorts on the thursday morning swoon inspite of the Rhetoric posted on IDS.... "wimps are covering here..." It is key to come to your own conclusion no matter what some others post and inspite of track records. We owe a dutyu to ourselves to " create our own track record" Buddha check out Traders-talk.com for a more objective T/A analysis in MSO ( my simple opinion) Agree with anjing that there's pressure to conform to the prevailing view over on IDS -- especially lately. Those who follow my trades over at Clearstation know that I covered all my shorts Wednesday and Thursday. Not bragging, no ego: just want to provide a view that success depends on doing your own research, resisting the seduction of the crowd, even here at capitalstool. Donged NT this am for a s/t low risk pop. If you think Monday's are gonna be up and the US has a 3-day weekend, you can think ahead late Friday and pick up Japanese NYSE-traded stocks like EWJ and JOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Oh.. .yeah... one other comment 1470 to 1260 wave 1 1260 to 1341 wave 2 1340 to 1002... 161.8% of wave 1.... and end of wave 3 (with 4 and 5 to come) Makes alot of sense now doesnt it kids? 1002 is the October lows area.... It would also have my QQQ target in the low 20.xx range come into play... Its crystal clear to me, dont lose your head...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisaintthebottom Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 nice commentary mark as usual we were deeply Dover Sole going in to thurs seems people started covering because professionals need to be flat going into weekend so we got the buying today but looking at gm ibm and other dow charts i don't see the volume... but who am I.. A guy that called the oct 9 bottom is still short has the falling VXN wedge which has been pierced to the upside signalling a major fall is coming... http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton...lton021403.html it is OE though but the public won't come into help the manipulation...so i am staying short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 I remember during the january rally after going vertical for a few days many stoolies were calling for nasdaq 1500+ and dow 9200+ at one point.That hysteria jam shot its load quickly.this one will fail alot quicker. not saying we can't rocket up from here,but I just don't see it in the charts or in reality at this point. 10 hours of stupidity does not make a bull market.It just makes a waste of funds lousy 4-5% cash reserves. one day we gap down 500 and keep going and people will get what's comin to them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Anybody notice the VXN today. 5 wave move up from April 02, followed by a 5 wave corrective triangle. Should be followed by another 5 wave move up. Broke the upper trend line today. Should backtest the line before continuing upwards but doesn't necessarily have to. I posted this last night and mentioned that it could retest the breakout point. Went up to resistance at the upper trend line and then backtested. Could still be part of a bigger wedge but there are already 5 waves in this triangle and according to elliot wave theory, the next move should be up and out. I apologize in advance if this chart is a little large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 15, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Simple: Thanks for your input. Looks, smells, feels like that June rally from last year. But I must keep the spikes up on my back, just in case. Every one of these bottoms, I kick myself for not taking profits sooner. Soup: You are correct about mutual fund cash levels. However, what we have failed to consider during this bear market is the giant sized HedgeFunds shorting the market. That covering is what is causing these rallies. Remember, this is the only bear market where LIQUIDITY has been in the greatest bull market in history. If not for the liquidity and Repo Jams, we wouldn't have so many HedgeHogs shorting, and thus we would have a normal bear market decline without these violent explosions. By the way, I'm glad we closed up on the week. Breaks the losing weekly streak. Now we won't have to be nervous about 5 and 6 down weeks in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Three toes aka slothrop.... nice that you concur... could you imagine basing your trades on what some guy on the internet wrote? without doing yor own work? it is symptomatic of the "money for nothing cheques for free" mentality of Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Windy, see my post from early this am you will get a kick out of it. Today was classic capone action as Buddha would say. Have to wipe out all of the profitable put holders...upside to 880 although I dont think we make it. Reloaded mar 900 spx puts at the close in case of a geopolitical event. Cant imagine being long this weekend...as for ebay and amgn I'll be happy to sell you all you want ....just dont count on me buying it back anytime before OCT. Keep up the awesome commentaries. TRADE SAFE and BE SAFE this weekend all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 IMO this rally was quite predictable. The market was moving down in a death by a thousand cuts low slope decline. We were a few points above the July or October weekly closing low on the cash spoos and the decline was barely accelerating. Market breadth did not support the magnitude of Thursday's decline. The VIX while not very high did spike to the 40 level and all of the chatter revolved around how many layers of plastic and duct tape to wrap around your house. That?s not exactly capitulation, but its enough to garner a bounce off a significant (obvious) support level after 4 weeks of decline. Also, Doc was warning that the 3 and 8 day as well as the 6-7 week cycles were close to a bottom. Everyday I compare my positions and thoughts on the economy and the market to those of the most bullish managers I can find. I find it very helpful to try to understand who is on the other side of my trades. These guys have been conditioned to buy any crisis. The only thought in there heads is that it is too late to sell and the next bull market is right around the corner. So any losing position will eventually work out. That may be stupid and completely irrational but that is thinking behind not selling right now. Imagine if you were a money manger that set a stop of Cash Spoos 777 back in October and sold out of your positions thinking you had made a prudent decision to avoid further losses. That is the greatest fear right now. Unlike the presidential election, the 911 terrorist attacks, Enron fraud, and the Worldcom debacle anyone can see a resolution, either a war or some sort of peace, with Iraq coming at some point. (granted that any worthwhile money manager should have seen ENE and WCOM coming) So why sell. After all from the bull perspective the only thing holding back the economy and the market is Iraq. IMHO the bulls will not sell before the war or a peaceful resolution even if we break the October lows by 5-10%. Further IMO they will hold their stock after any war rally has concluded and only then after the market continues to decline will we be at a point of recognition that will result in a waterfall decline. So the war rally no matter how small or how big will be the greatest selling/shorting opportunity this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Nice chart Wrecked Him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sox Bear Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 The problem with E Wavers is they've been calling for the "big wave 3" for months now and we haven't seen it. We've heard things like "tomorrow is down 6%" or even more alarming "trust me kids" <_< . "Trust me" is a scary statement that may have legal obligations attached to it, but I digress. E Wave is good for explaining history, not for telling you what to expect. There's always "an alternate" count and somehow you can't be wrong calling the waves. The problem is, when you trade you can't take "alternate" positions. If the main wave count is wrong you get blown out, meanwhile the E Wave anal cyst remains credible because he/she had warned you about the alternate count. No offense to anyone, just my humble opinion on E Waves. Now time cycles that's a different story...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Wrecked Him you got it... Its indicating MASSIVE drops in the Q's coming shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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