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Ramp N' Camp


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Looking to cover my shorts overnight.

Hopefully our friends from Asia will do some profit taking.

 

I'm not going to hold this towards the release of the retail numbers.

I think there's a reason they refuse to release it yesterday with most traders home.

 

ES broke the 1 month downtrend on the hourly.

I have to say I think they genuinely couldn't get the press release out. If you've talked to anyone in D.C. it is horrendous there. The storm(s) they've had -- geeze, worse than any of the paralyzing storms I've experienced living in 2 different snow-laden midwestern states. And D.C. is SO not set up to handle big snowstorms.

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Total eurodebacle in the offing. It's going to get very hot in Athens before long.

 

What struck me about the reporting on Greece today was that senior officials from Core-Europe said that Greece had not asked for financial assistance. They wanted to make clear that everyone heard the message - like here & here & here:

 

[European Council President] Mr. Van Rompuy told journalists earlier Thursday, on the sidelines of the EU summit. "Greece did not ask for any financial support," he added.

 

European Comission President Jose-Manuel Barroso, who also participated in the summit, said EU leaders didn't discuss a financial rescue for Greece because the country hasn't asked for help.

 

Asked to give details of any bailout plan, Mr. Juncker said; "I don't want to speculate on something the Greeks tell us is not necessary," adding that speculation Greece could exit the 16 country bloc was "absurd."

Source

 

Before today, we were engaged in a game of chicken between a Greece that is in a lot of financial trouble, and a Europe caught between bad precedent & sovereign contagion.

 

After today... we're in the same place. Time-honored expressions of "political will" and "European commitment" from Sarkozy/Merkle/Gilligan/TheSkipper/AndTheRest are empty. The game of chicken remains "on": Core Europe is going to secure a groveling request from Greece for help before it lends support, so that it can bind Greece with iron-clad budgetary commitments. Something akin to contingent loan guarantees, where Brussels effectively writes Athens' budget.

 

If the Greeks try to avoid this humiliation and cut spending themselves, the streets of Athens will come alive with government-leveling protests. If the Greeks go groveling to Brussels or Berlin, Euro-Core quid pro quo contingencies will... animate government-leveling protests.

 

I'm calling "Game over" on the Aegean. As clear as Porter's pick in Miami.

 

Sorry if this is a repost - I think this nails it:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a920bae4-fee9-11...144feab49a.html

 

Greece has to leave because having never reasonably qualified for inclusion, nor having worked to satisfy Maastricht criteria, it never belonged in the first place. So, the natural path is out. Messy details to follow.

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fxfox,

 

News are full of German people's unwillingness to help Greece.

What's the mood there ?

 

This BBS article states

 

Greece has two big problems: a debt problem and a competitiveness one. A "bail-out" won't solve either - at least, not a bail-out that any self-respecting German would be willing to consider.

 

Why so much emphasis on self-respecting (or not) Germans ?

 

And the details are not coming out until Monday.

 

So equities have all day tomorrow to ramp on rumors.

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I have to say I think they genuinely couldn't get the press release out. If you've talked to anyone in D.C. it is horrendous there. The storm(s) they've had -- geeze, worse than any of the paralyzing storms I've experienced living in 2 different snow-laden midwestern states. And D.C. is SO not set up to handle big snowstorms.

 

We got snow here in NYC, but weather was quite warm. Most of the stuff are melted already in Manhattan.

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The problem of the Euro is that mentality differences in Euorpe are very big. You cant compare the difference between a guy from Finland and one from Greece with the difference between Vermont and California.

 

But after all it didnt makes sense to discuss such a topic on this board. I give it maximum 1 hour and someone will come and say that "thats all fiat currencies, all crap. We are all doomed and tomorrow the world wil end." And thats not a base for a fruitfull discussion. At least not for me. Also my english is not good enough to discuss such complicated things.

 

All I can say is that Euroland can be thankfull that the Euro is so high. Lots of room to fall. Remember is was soon after its invention at 0.83, right now at 1.36. At 0.83 there was no civil war in Euroland and I was a happy camper. So no reason to shit in the pants. Maybe fart., but not shit.

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Price has moved inside the bully box and a continuation of the 8 day moving above the zero momentum zone along with other oscillators. It appears there is a push to try and reclaim TurkeyNeck trade area from Feb. 4. It also appears that price closed just a tad under Tuesday's high. I think we need a move by the shorter cycles to cross under the 5/8 tomorrow to see if there is any evidence that the area above is going to cause problems for box bullies.

post-326-1265927635_thumb.png

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