Ned38 Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Im short SPY as of last nights close... expected possible higher retraces... but 5th terminal due... if not today, then monday and tuesday... You dont get 4 waves down, and then go up with no 5th wave... not how it works, and its not how its going to work. Any upside this am should be shorted, as it will rollover after .786 retrace is hit, at best.... 5th wave down from there, and it may be an extension wave too... Then we go up.... big time, as I've been saying all along, 930 SP Cheers SG OK Brother SG I am gonna sit on my hands for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Nikkei closes at 20 year low....PPI WAY above expectations....Dollar Soaring, Gold getting whacked yet again....makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 I'm waiting for the frenzy to get near the top, and then will go after some BAC puts. No earlier than August exp. not sure if you are the one mentioned the low risk short on BAC awhile back but I took the trade made nice gains, and flipped to 70. I was pretty lucky for sure.....Im just looking for a time to sell then out. One more rule for me for OE week...not blaming rally on this here since earnings, noise, etc. but no more over night holdings during OE week. ......where are these black boxes at? We could storm the front with sledgehammers. That would make my year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 I'm waiting for the frenzy to get near the top, and then will go after some BAC puts. No earlier than August exp. not sure if you are the one mentioned the low risk short on BAC awhile back but I took the trade made nice gains, and flipped to 70. I was pretty lucky for sure.....Im just looking for a time to sell then out. One more rule for me for OE week...not blaming rally on this here since earnings, noise, etc. but no more over night holdings during OE week. ......where are these black boxes at? We could storm the front with sledgehammers. That would make my year. I think somebody tried that when they broke into Greenspan's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Im short SPY as of last nights close... expected possible higher retraces... but 5th terminal due... if not today, then monday and tuesday... You dont get 4 waves down, and then go up with no 5th wave... not how it works, and its not how its going to work. Any upside this am should be shorted, as it will rollover after .786 retrace is hit, at best.... 5th wave down from there, and it may be an extension wave too... Then we go up.... big time, as I've been saying all along, 930 SP Cheers SG OK Brother SG I am gonna sit on my hands for a little while I'm sitting on my hands as well. Interestingly, with the statistical system I use, I have noticed that everytime the market is within 1 or 2 days of giving me a signal, it reverses direction. Madame likes this kind of market, but it just gives me a headache. Regards WH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Im short SPY as of last nights close... expected possible higher retraces... but 5th terminal due... if not today, then monday and tuesday... You dont get 4 waves down, and then go up with no 5th wave... not how it works, and its not how its going to work. Any upside this am should be shorted, as it will rollover after .786 retrace is hit, at best.... 5th wave down from there, and it may be an extension wave too... Then we go up.... big time, as I've been saying all along, 930 SP Cheers SG SG: The move from the high 905 may only be a three as follows: a: 904.89 - 874.68 b: 874.68 - 887.35 (retrace .419 of a) c: 887.35 - 862.76 (862 is major fibo support area; 863 was 72 dma) The c above from 887.35 to 862.76 was a perfect ending diagonal triangle (per EW PRinciple); ending diagonals are terminal patterns. The move tells me that we WILL go above 904.89 high. I've got another pattern which ties into the 905 + range; will post later...; no time now... Check out BB target was 915-918; my target has been 911, (maybe the .786 from 788 low from 12/2 954 hi which is 918.9. Good Luck to you, SG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 gold down w/ the ppi up 1.5% hmmm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 I'm waiting for the frenzy to get near the top, and then will go after some BAC puts. No earlier than August exp. not sure if you are the one mentioned the low risk short on BAC awhile back but I took the trade made nice gains, and flipped to 70. I was pretty lucky for sure.....Im just looking for a time to sell then out. One more rule for me for OE week...not blaming rally on this here since earnings, noise, etc. but no more over night holdings during OE week. ......where are these black boxes at? We could storm the front with sledgehammers. That would make my year. I think somebody tried that when they broke into Greenspan's house. where is his house anyways? jk!!! Once again Ive lost alot gains for the week only to end up flat. What a loser I am They aint gonna make catching the top easy. Im waiting for better levels, of course they flip on a dime so I better not be taking a crap when it happens. I spread out my options hedges to far out. They dont expire for 2 months but sure sucks watching them get cranked.....guess I cant call them hedges if Im not LTBH the stock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Semis don't seem to be gapping up as hard. I would have expected over a buck up in the PreMarket on most of the usual screamers...... Closing all shorts at the open, will wait and watch for now. I think I can get out about even on these trades. Tom O'Brien last night said a major thrust up was coming. His Commodity Program Robot guest also said the models went long at the lows yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 904.89 recent hi 862.76 yesterday lo FIBOS from above recent extremes 895.87 - .786 888.80 - .618 883.83 - .50 (883.36 is also the .382 fibo from 12/2 954 hi from 10/10 768 lo; RESISTANCE; maybe only very temporary) 882 - 200 DMA 878.85 - .382 (support here from futures) 872.70 - .236 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Chart signaling Danger for bulls http://www.21stcenturyalert.com/tcx/images...ing/2003-04-11/ If prices go down, and sentiment gets more bullish, then that's a disastrous recipe for stocks. We're seeing this same thing right now. The QQV -- and the VIX, for that matter -- are plunging, and prices are drifting downward. bounce then slam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 This quote from the manager of the anus 20, after losing so much money he still has not learned, he knows the price of everything yet does not have a clue as to the value. ANyway the mania lives ". Right now, the top four names are Microsoft, ExxonMobil, eBay and UnitedHealth Group. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 Striker - except for the PM's (loaded and upside down) I've simply been playing short term DJX Options....been damned lucky only because of DOC, SG, OY, BB et al....waiting for a close above 900 on SPX...then going hard on em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 The "monthly change in PPI" headline figures are useless, because they are too volatile. The actual PPI release on the Labor Department's website gives the 12-month rate of change. From a low of -2.9% last May, the 12-month ROC has risen to +4.2% as of today's PPI release. That's a 7.1% swing to the upside in ten months, and it can't all be attributed to energy prices. Yet the hairshirted prophets of deflation still inveigh on the street corners, preaching their apocalyptic gospel of collapsing prices. Show me the serpent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted April 11, 2003 Report Share Posted April 11, 2003 I'm sorry to say it guys but I think we're going to head up and break the Dec 02 highs and blow every short seller out of the mkt. Too many people trying to game the long term direction off just one day's action. I'm trying to do the opposite (but admit it's very hard). I've got some long term puts on which expire from May-Jul and am looking to roll them over if/when we break those Dec highs. In the meantime if we tank there should be a few pieces of silver trickling into my account. In the scheme of things a big move higher could be the best news for the bears as long as they keep some powder dry. Capital preservation in my opinion is 1000% more important right now than making money and this is what I've been telling my Mother. She's just had a relative die leaving her a chunk of money which she wants to 'put to work'. I've said keep it in cash because those with ready access to cash should be able to pick up assets as firesale prices over the next few years. I just hope in the meantime she's not taxed for leaving her money in the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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