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More thoughts on the GDP ten-year average article posted the other day...(originally from November, 2014)

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-stagnation

 

Jim Rogers was correct about the commodity super-cycle ("Hot Commodities), only he didn't see the CB - induced financial bubble superimposed.  It was supposed to follow sequentially.   We were supposed to ride BHP to prosperity until 2016 or, followed by JP Morgan for another dozen years.  Maybe it all got compressed - the Commodity cycle ended 5 five years prematurely, and the CB's crammed the entire Financial cycle into the remaining time.  Maybe all they did was to bring it forward..

 
The deceleration in GDP going on almost from the 1950's is like a bullet fired straight up.  On a rolling ten year average, the bullet is reaching its apex.  All we observed was the speeding bullet going ever higher on an average basis.  Still do.
 
Demographics is the gravity.  Japan is the laboratory.  It all fits.  We can't predict year to year, or even 5 years, but from the trend we have a pretty good idea what the next decade or two will average out to, barring a GDP re-acceleration due to technology or immigration.  But as the linked article suggests, a lot of that is already baked in.
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w?s=%5EAORD

 

All Ords declined steadily to finish -0.5%.  Most sectors closed down led by Miners -1.4%, Consumer Staples and Materials both -1%.

Asia mixed: China +0.5%, Hong Kong -0.8%, India +0.8% and Nikkei -0.3%.
 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

image;size=239x110


image;size=239x110


image;size=239x110

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More thoughts on the GDP ten-year average article posted the other day...(originally from November, 2014)

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-stagnation

 

Jim Rogers was correct about the commodity super-cycle ("Hot Commodities), only he didn't see the CB - induced financial bubble superimposed.  It was supposed to follow sequentially.   We were supposed to ride BHP to prosperity until 2016 or, followed by JP Morgan for another dozen years.  Maybe it all got compressed - the Commodity cycle ended 5 five years prematurely, and the CB's crammed the entire Financial cycle into the remaining time.  Maybe all they did was to bring it forward..

 
The deceleration in GDP going on almost from the 1950's is like a bullet fired straight up.  On a rolling ten year average, the bullet is reaching its apex.  All we observed was the speeding bullet going ever higher on an average basis.  Still do.
 
Demographics is the gravity.  Japan is the laboratory.  It all fits.  We can't predict year to year, or even 5 years, but from the trend we have a pretty good idea what the next decade or two will average out to, barring a GDP re-acceleration due to technology or immigration.  But as the linked article suggests, a lot of that is already baked in.

 

 

Market pricing in biotech making baby boomers live forever :lol:

 

or just the rich ones that can pay body snatchers to find a healthy involuntary body donor. :ph34r:

http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/human-head-transplants-could-become-reality-2017

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