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Four Year Cycle Topped?


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Cubetrader just signaled get out!

 

closing QQQ short trade now

filled at 35.61 ,got 1.74 points or 4.7 % gain

 

 

 

 

Didn't enter any potential trades...today's open not conducive. NEM gapped up a bit and took off so didn't get in either, backing off now.

Gotta go now. Still have AMTD,WM shorts and NEM buy on watch.

 

C Ya!

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"THE FOUR YEAR CYCLE HAS TOPPED"

Mr H, assuming 4 year cycle lows in October 02, and September 98. The peak in the Dow Jones was 71 weeks after the Sep 98 low, it then went sideways/down for another 71 weeks, then down hard for another 72 weeks. If we followed a similar pattern for the present 4 year cycle (highly unlikley, but you never know), 71 weeks after the Oct 02 low is the present high in Feb, another 71 weeks is July 05, where there is a fibonacci turn date, then down towards the end of 06

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71 weeks after the Oct 02 low is the present high in Feb, another 71 weeks is July 05, where there is a fibonacci turn date, then down towards the end of 06

 

 

jr,

Fascinating observation...all my staring at charts and I never noticed that both had 71 weeks from trough to peak! Add this to numerous other factors and it's a safe to bet the top is in. Time for bears to come out of hibernation and do what they do best, make money on the down cycle.

My first short Cube Trade turned in a nice profit so we are off to a good start!

Thanks for the great charts and analysis.

 

Very Best Regards,

Hank

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Hank always enjoy your postings on the stool. Do you hear anyone other than the usual suspects on Crapvision and maybe Don Wollanchuk who is not a long term bear? Maybe this is a contrary indicator? Mind you I would not be bullish after an 18 year runup but maybe we get a major buy spike and then finally crash? Thoughts?

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Mind you I would not be bullish after an 18 year runup but maybe we get a major buy spike and then finally crash? Thoughts?

 

 

TFH,

I do not think a 87 "crash" type scenario very likely because we are already down quite a ways from the 2000 highs. But if we have another big run up (buy spike)for a double top type situations in SP and DOW (impossible in Nas I think) a crash is more probable. We do have a potential here from EW to enter a massive third wave down but this would unfold over a period of months or even years and don't know if you would then use the term crash but it would be bad enough and precede very difficult economic times. Dieter Sornette's model still suggests this is definitely "in the cards"

The other LT scenario is stuck in a big range (SP 750-1550 )like the last secular bear for the next 15-20 years. Seems already some are looking at this like Ike's guest this week, Stan Harley. But the rule of alternation puts some doubts on this happening but the Nikme played the range quite a while there before breaking out of it to the downside.

The only thing that I am very certain of is Dow 10000 plus a bit will still be the upper end until this secular bear is over many years from now.

I think mostly what makes me bearish and 3rd waveish instead of rangebound are the charts of some of the international markets and wow the brokers/dealers all have huge H&S formations some just broke the neckline others about to. They look bad and now housing,construction,mortgage related stocks are starting to look real fragile.

We all know this is primarily what has kept the economy strong. The new age cyclicals ie semis are in a bear market already no doubt. And there is a curious trend non-uniformity in that box makers, teles, and internuts are holding up but they are all market interdependent on the semi's?????

On a sidenote, I just took my lovely girlfriend up to the Oneida Casino Entertainment complex to see Natalie Cole perform. They both are fantastic

women! The casino was packed like I have never seen it in my life. The parking lot full of shiney new SUV's, luxury sedans, and expensive imports. It was one massive party seen. Everyone was laughing, dancing, eating, drinking, gambling,singing, just having a grand time, the mood was nothing short of ecstatic. A large addition to the complex is under construction nearby and the airport across the street was very busy. And as I took it all in, I just kept thinking to myself, really, just how much better can things get?

 

Regards,

Hank

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hank-in green bay?

Ya der heh der fer sure, how bout dem packers, ehhh???

Going back up to Resch to see CHER (for the girl not me)!

 

CT in cash.

Bottom of of range with bullish HI-5 divergence now in place, as anticipated. Long or cash, no shorting here...but we are third watch. If we bounce a bit and break down it will be HARD. Hopefully CT will catch it and position us short.

 

Hank

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CT still says cash. ST signal is long. MT & LT are short.

 

Is this w:3:1 and the start of a freefall OR one of those nasty "X" waves connecting us to another sideways corrective structure?

Beats the H out of me!

Sure is having trouble keeping the parachute deployed in here but CT still says the odds are in favor of more upside ST.

The bearish 50/200 day SMA cross over is complete!

 

Pattern wise we are at the bottom of an established range = go long with stops just below. And continue to have some bullish indicator divergences as we chop down.

 

Hank

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