paul-s Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 3) The only periods during the bull market that compared to the current streak occurred during 1988, 1991, and 1999. These readings occurred after sustained sell-offs that resulted in the market being more fairly valued in contrast to today?s market. According to Carl Swenlin?s data the latter part of 1988 and 1991 was pretty close to fairly valued. Of course 1999 was overvalued, but today?s market is even more overvalued! Fowl, Thanks for your research and analysis. You've done a terrific job. Could you tell us what the highest BULL market ratios for the relative SPX/relative Vix readings? In the unlikely, but always possible, case that we are in a cyclical bull period, how would our 1.66 ratio currently compare? It's original research and analysis like yours that make this site so special. (Doc himself provides so much special research and analysis in the Anals that we begin to take his work as commonplace, when clearly it is not. A case in point; his previous post.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Uncle Buck kicked in the crotch, yet stock futures continue to scream to new highs. Commodity Program Trading Robots running amok. Everything is working the OPPOSITE of what it is supposed to. Al Green's Madman Plan will levitate all financial asset prices, regardless of valuation. ............. Avoid the pain. Buy gold stocks, and participate in the new inflation storm coming near you. Its a bull market in all stocks, thanks to hyperinflation. Might as well pick the sector most undervalued, and primed to move the fastest. mark i agree with you about gold ,and as everyone knows im a one-way corrigan gold shtunk and am seriously thinking of getting a plastic surgeon to uncircumcise me so that i can gain entree into one of the many Baal worshiopping cults in my area-- But i disagree when you say it aint supposed to happen this way whatever "this way" may mean Why not an explosion in commodities while the dollar tanks--this is just one of the many, in my estimation, whirling dollar- directed cesspools that is periodically irrigated and drained by the violent tree swinging of the trading monkeys as they go from suctor to suctor--i think you have said the same in your own wayof course ,many times--nespa??? bdrech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roidrage Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 he said in a highly inflationary environment there is usually a close inverse relationship between gold and stocks, but not so much so in a low-inflation environment, which we are currently in. Makes sense. But here is the paradox: deflation - we get declining prices, weak economy and corproate profits, and lower stock prices; hyperinflation - we get climbing prices, declining real value on financial assets, higher interest rates, and even worse, a lower $. I really don't see a way out here... Good point. Business costs for health care, insurance, reg. compliance etc. have been going up double digit year on year for three years. From what I see, only the guys writing derivatives and mortgages or getting politically targetted bailouts can keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Beautiful spike up in the POB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 End - Red Stripe is BOTTLED. and it's bASS around here, End! Hard to find a better bottled brew. St Pauli Gurrrl??? Gimme a break. No Yank beer comes close. Well. Michelob, maybe - which is nearly IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND in the PNW/Seattle. bASS by apptmt to Her Majesty the Queen BEE. insoFUR ass DRAUGHT beers go u r PARTIALLY correct. Murphy's is even better than Guinness. No contest. Guinness makes a separate version FUR the Irish and anUDDER FUR Oy and his Euro pals. We Yanks git our own interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onelegstool Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Mr. Bare, sir: Ever tried Old Frothingslosh? "the Pale Stale Ale--so light the foam is on the bottom." Well, Maestro, you must be from Pittsburgh, PA or its environs, as I am. I remember Rege Cordic too. I knew Rege had gone into acting after leaving Pittsburgh, but I didn't know much else. Thanks for the link. It filled in the gaps. Oneleg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 I?ve recently been doing some further analysis of the daily VIX in relation to it?s 200 day moving average (Relative VIX) and the daily SPX in relation to its 200 day moving average (Relative SPX). ?Instead of looking at the relative VIX in a vacuum, I wanted to compare it to similar relative movements in the SPX. ?I?ve expressed this relationship by dividing the Relative SPX by the Relative VIX. ?Ratios from .45 to .55 suggest that price has underperformed sentiment, implying undue negativity and indicate important bottoms. ?Ratios above 1.31 suggest that price is outperforming sentiment, implying unwarranted optimism and indicate important tops. ?The results I compiled go back to January 1986. ?Comparing the current ratio of 1.66 with past results indicates that we?re at historical extremes. ? FJ: That's an interesting way to look at the data. Looking at a chart of the relative spx/relative vix, it strikes me that range has been trending roughly downwards since 8/99, until the current rally started, propelling the measure head and shoulders above its prior range. The 8/99 spike was similar in size to the current one. To my mind, that means we are either completely overbought, or starting something new, which can't be entirely discounted if one wants to remain balanced. However, I expect it's more likely that we are completely overbought at this point, maybe much like the Dover Sole situation in Oct 1998, which after all, turned out to be a severe correction in a strong bull market. MWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roidrage Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 am seriously thinking of getting a plastic surgeon to uncircumcise me are you looking for a good tip? so instead of tipping the doc, he'll be tipping you? if one who cuts it is a mohel, shouldn't one who extends it be a lesshel? More seriously, on epispasm: epispasm1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 Sometimes, when I read one of Mr. B's postings, I really feel the urge to have one of these... Blithering Idiot ....Enjoy Blithering Idiot in a brandy snifter or wine glass, preferably in front of the fire, or accompanying a literary classic. This is the finest life has to offer and should be treated as such. Moments of reflection make all the toil worthwhile, and Blithering Idiot is for moments like these... From Weyerbacher Brewing Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 are you looking for a good tip? so instead of tipping the doc, he'll be tipping you? if one who cuts it is a mohel, shouldn't one who extends it be a lesshel? More seriously, on epispasm: epispasm1 That article makes the lengths women go through to satisfy their various vanities seem trivial in comparison to those of the epispastics, if I may call them that. Poor souls, those circumcised Hellenists. MWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onelegstool Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 here's an eerie treatmernt of the Chicago stock yards during the 68 convention--by Norman Mailer "Miami and the seige of Chicago .........the railroad siding of the stockyards were at night as empty as the moon. Long before the democrat convention of 1968 came to the Chicago Amphitheatre, indeed eighteen years ago when this reporter ahd paid his only previous visit, the area was even then deserted at night,empty as the mudholes on a battlefield after a war had passed. West of the Amphitheatre, railroad sidings seemed to continue on for miles,accompanied by those same massive low sheds alrger than armories, with pens of tens of thousands of frantic beasts, cattle, sheep, and pigs, animals in an orgy of gorging and dropping and waiting and smelling blood..... The animals passed a psychic current back along the overhead trolley--each cut throat released its screams of death into the throat not yet cutand just behind, and that penultimate throat would push the voltage up, drive the current back and further back into the screams of every animal upside down and hanging from that overhead trolley, bare electric bulbs screaming into the animal eye and brain, gurglings and awsome hollows of sound coming back from the open plumbing of the cut jugular as if death indeed were some underground rapids along some underground river, and the fear and absolute anguish of beasts dying upside down further ahead passed back along the line, back all the way to the corrals and pens, back even to the siding with the animals still in boxcars, back,who knew-- so high might be the psychic voltage of the beast--back to the farm where first they were pushed into the truck which would take them to the train..... Well,the smell of the entrails and all that agonized blood by all the outer neons of ultimate fear got right into the grit of that stockyard stench... norman mailer p.s. if you want something even more vivid read Rudyard Kipling's description of his visit there --a more vivid 20th century metaphor cant be found and then theres the classic "the Jungle" by Upton Sinclair which i read while gainfully employed ther years ago--\ "One leg off step aside -- bdrech no no no im not a vegetarian BD-- Mailer is one of an army of so called "liberals" intent upon rubbing the average person's nose in what he perceived to be their blissful ignorance about the brutality of the society they live in and which they benefit from. PETA is an organized form of this selfrighteous breed. The reality is that, though many humans die quietly in their sleep, millions die every year in the same kind of anguish and pain--if not physical, then emotional. We are cursed with the knowledge of our mortality, while animals are not. Each of us dies a thousand deaths because of that awful knowledge. Though not slaughtered for food like pigs and cows, we are slaughtered just the same by cruel reality. Yet PETA and their ilk in their naivete demand that we respect animals as we respect ourselves. I say, why treat them better than nature treats us? Bring me that filet mignon! oneleg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 What concerns me is the extreme readings of the current numbers and whether it means something new. I think that's my fear talking since there's a lot of research on this site, approaching this issue from many different angles, that points to a significant top. I have found MWH's studies to be very reassuring in this regard. FJ - I was kinda relying on your views to assuage my own fears that things are different this time round. Now you're saying you have doubts! Lol! In all seriousness, the sheer extreme nature of some of the technical indicators that I follow makes me suspect that the carpet is quietly being pulled from under the bullish camp's feet and we will find what is going on before too long. As someone who grew up in a country with a continuously devaluing currency, I believe very strongly that the dollar simply cannot trend lower to such a degree without something being afoot. It is one thing for the market to remain more or less flat in the face of a falling currency, but it's another thing completely for the rally to continue strongly up from here. You are totally correct that this points to a significant top and not something new. MWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anoscope Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 nite ALL.. see note below..all is a LOT! 11:40pm 48 User(s) are reading this topic (24 Guests and 3 Anonymous Users) 21 Members: anoscope, Madame Wrecked Him, getsoutalive, SinkingIsBack, sleddog, Wahoo, FowlJones, Grizzly Bear, Wyatt Burp, Stinky, ouch, GregFokker, Deepsix, sassafras, Old Habits, Down Jones, I_Am_Madness, Lurker, Stutz, martialcomp, aussiebear wow.. when did I hit 1k posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 are you looking for a good tip? so instead of tipping the doc, he'll be tipping you? if one who cuts it is a mohel, shouldn't one who extends it be a lesshel? More seriously, on epispasm: epispasm1 roid is this web not a miracle??-- As ive told my friends who've not experienced it I sometimes feel as if i'm occupying a a small molecular spot inside god's brain--or of youre more respectfull, in Chardin's noosphere--my G-- you actually found a commentary on something aas comedically obscure as all that--- bdrech & now to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted May 12, 2003 Report Share Posted May 12, 2003 are you looking for a good tip? so instead of tipping the doc, he'll be tipping you? if one who cuts it is a mohel, shouldn't one who extends it be a lesshel? More seriously, on epispasm: epispasm1 roid is this web not a miracle??-- As ive told my friends who've not experienced it I sometimes feel as if i'm occupying a a small molecular spot inside god's brain--or of youre more respectfull, in Chardin's noosphere--my G-- you actually found a commentary on something aas comedically obscure as all that--- bdrech & now to bed Remember reading a compilation of quotes from student's papers. "Magellan was the first man to circumsize the world." Although a recipient of said procedure myself, and none the worse for it, I can't imagine worshipping any deity that would insist on such a silly practice. The cr*p that people have dreamt up and then argued over almost defies imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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