The Best of Times

[wndysrf]

PigMen Reversal under the 50-day.

 

How classic is that??

[Guest]

PigMen Reversal under the 50-day.

 

How classic is that??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

textbork

[wndysrf]

This does not compute.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I am new to this board but I wanted to get your opinion on this Rydex Bull/Bear number.

http://www.smallinvestors.com/SP500/RydexvsSP500.htm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I only vaguely know how its calculated. But I've watched it since 2004, and it works pretty well.

 

Like any tool, its not perfect. But used in conjunction with other data, you can tell when the market is not ready to go down yet.

 

This time:

 

- 10, 20, and 50-day MA on put/call ratios have remained over .80 and started accelerating to the upside the last week or so.

 

- Steel and other materials stocks and cyclical stocks were not selling off.

 

- Banks were not selling off.

 

- Broker/dealers remained pinned at all time highs for weeks.

 

- REITS would not go down when rates were moving up.

 

- Rydex Ratio was plunging.

 

All these gave us some clues that "the fix was in", and that the PigMen were going to torch the shorts during OpEx.

[intertrader888]

This does not compute.

 

Either the markets need to crash right away to confirm the opinions of the Rydex traders....

 

Or the markets need to "melt up" in a blistering rally to turn all the Rydex Bears bullish...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

I am new to this board but I wanted to get your opinion on this Rydex Bull/Bear number. It looks to me that instead of people loading up on the Bear Side, they are selling on the Bull Side. This entire rally to a nominal new high could be a big headfake. I appreciate your opinion.

http://www.smallinvestors.com/SP500/RydexvsSP500.htm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I second that. People like GaryK has been burned too many times in the past

2 years that I rarely heard him put on a short position anymore.

 

In a sense, most people who lost their shirts in 2000-2002 do not care what's going

on with stock market. They only care about real estate and brag about

how much their homes or RE investment has appreciated.

 

During parties or gatherings, I rarely hear people talk about stocks, except those

who entered the market in the past 3 years.

[plitvice]

PigMen Reversal under the 50-day.

 

How classic is that??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Thinking like a PigMan, I guess the next course of action would be to push it above the 200 day, and then pull the rug out from under all those technical traders.

The question is, however, am I willing to put my money where my convictions (or predictions) lie?

 

[Guest]

Fewer than half of homeowners deduct their mortage interest.

 

While itemizing can make a big difference, not everyone can or does itemize. Currently, just 32 percent of households itemize their deductions, while more than 68 percent own their homes.

Homeownership may not be the moneymaker you think it is. Instead, you may be lucky to get back the money spent on closing costs, mortgage payments, property taxes, property insurance, maintenance, homeowners association fees, and real estate commissions by the time you sell.

[intertrader888]

This does not compute.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I am new to this board but I wanted to get your opinion on this Rydex Bull/Bear number.

http://www.smallinvestors.com/SP500/RydexvsSP500.htm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I only vaguely know how its calculated. But I've watched it since 2004, and it works pretty well.

 

Like any tool, its not perfect. But used in conjunction with other data, you can tell when the market is not ready to go down yet.

 

This time:

 

- 10, 20, and 50-day MA on put/call ratios have remained over .80 and started accelerating to the upside the last week or so.

 

- Steel and other materials stocks and cyclical stocks were not selling off.

 

- Banks were not selling off.

 

- Broker/dealers remained pinned at all time highs for weeks.

 

- REITS would not go down when rates were moving up.

 

- Rydex Ratio was plunging.

 

All these gave us some clues that "the fix was in", and that the PigMen were going to torch the shorts during OpEx.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

wndysrf,

 

about broker/dealers index, from what I read, people are saying that

as far as this index ($XBD) holds up, market would do fine.

 

However, have people ever thought of this might have changed under globalization?

 

For example, since US is a finance based economy and the only industry that

can do well and still lead in a globalized economy is finance, especially brokers/dealers.

 

GS's CFO said that the fastest growing market is Asia. Based on my knowledge,

there is no way local broker/dealers can compete in deals with GS/MWD/UBS etc.

I have friends working for those pigmen in HK.

 

So the persistant strength in broker/dealers may be reflecting the strength

of their prop desk plus their strength in global markets.

 

 

It could be a totally different story for other industries that have to compete

on a global basis.

 

 

Just my 2 cents.

[Metamucil]

NYA on a new buy signal......ascending triple top breakout. OEX also on a new buy.

[LeeWhee]

Unlike previous intermediate corrections, these two sectors did not participate in any of the downdraft days.

 

That, along with the resilience in the banks and brokers, was the tip off that the downside in the market was limited.

 

 

Basic Materials

 

 

 

Cyclicals

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I'm not sure a couple of weeks of distribution following the first week of Jan boner constitutes an intermediate-term correction. That could explain why these sectors didn't correct.

 

If you look at it from the perspective that the intermed-term correction still awaits us, then the XLB/CYC looks like a topping pattern.

 

As posted before, I have my lines in the sand drawn to determine whether this move has legs or not, and I'm keying off the REITs, XLB/CEX/CYC, XLF, and the RUA (Russell3000). None of them has either hit or exceeded my targets. But they are all within 1%-1.5%. Of course, most of these were within 1-1.5% a month ago too. So this has been a very, very slow process. Feels like topping, but who knows.

 

If the bellwethers I'm watching get above their respective targets for more than a day or three, I would agree that we are going up. If they reverse from those zones, we are going down.

 

As far as the REITs going up even though rates have risen, I don't see that as particularly bullish, given that they did the exact same thing at the last three intermed market tops. When bonds rallied, the REITs tanked very hard, very fast. And the broad market fell hard as well. No way to know in advance if that happens again, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

The general sentiment indicators---II, Rydex, etc---are very mixed. None are at the levels we have seen at recent bottoms, but some are close. Others are nowhere near. If we are close to a near-term correction/decline, what's different this time is that we aren't seeing much bullishness like we have at previous tops. I honestly can't tell you whether that's bullish or bearish. You could make a case both ways. If we do decline, I would expect bullishness to shrink much further since it's pretty low to begin with. That could set up a barnburner of a rally, short-term or not.

 

The other fly in the ointment is that the NDX is so laggy, something we certainly have not seen at previous intermed tops when the NDX was leading the charge. And many NDX components look poised for at least countertrend rallies. But that could be a headfake as well. Or maybe the NDX simply falls less hard than the rest of the market if we do get a downturn.

 

A very confusing technical picture, to say the least. One we haven't seen in the post-2002 era. That tells me that the market is undergoing internal changes and we won't know the outcome of that until we breakout, breakdown, or possibly both.

[wndysrf]

With the Deafening Roar of "Mad Cow" and "Bird Flu", this stock might have made a low today.

 

Anybody know if Hillary picked up some shares at the print low today???

 

[Brisbane Bear]

H S Dent has an interesting article on todays Daily Reckoning...he reckons 2010 before the shite hits the fan.

 

4 more years of this will be enough to send me completely insane...

[LeeWhee]

NYA on a new buy signal......ascending triple top breakout. OEX also on a new buy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The NYA has been rallying for 3.5 years. But those double and triple top PNF breakouts haven't generally been the best time to buy the NYA.

 

The triple-top breakout in Dec02 at 5,200 was reversed immediately and led to a 16% decline. The double-top breakout in 2/05 at 7,300 led to a 2% rally and then a 7.5% decline. The double-top breakout in 7/05 led to a 1% rally then a 6% decline.

 

Only the triple-top breakout in late '03 at 5,900 led to an immediate upleg. The NYA gained 15% b/w Nov03 and Mar04, then declined 9% back to 6200, not far from where the original breakout occurred.

 

I have no idea whether the current NYA PNF "breakout" will be the 11/03 variety, or the 12/02, 2/05, 7/05 variety. And it very well may get to the BPO of 9,850 and beyond....someday. But given that 3 of the past 4 NYA PNF breakouts have been headfakes, I think i'd give this one a little room to prove itself.

[Guest]

we're all bulls now?

 

long and strong 4ever?

 

 

once you try pig.........

[Brisbane Bear]

we're all bulls now?

 

long and strong 4ever?

 

 

it seems that way doesn't it...who has the strength to keep fighting the bastards.

 

I saw poor old Stephen Roach try to bumble his way through an interview the other day...bears seem so easily rattled by the talking heads...it doesn't help when you dont have a leg to stand on,you just come across as a loser pessimist.

 

I am getting my white flag drycleaned just in case I need it ....cant have a dirty white flag in front of all those sneering bulls....

[wndysrf]

NYA on a new buy signal......ascending triple top breakout. OEX also on a new buy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The NYA has been rallying for 3.5 years. But those double and triple top PNF breakouts haven't generally been the best time to buy the NYA.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

No one is suggesting that people dive in here on the long side.

 

Those of us who have been long should stay long until the market gives a sell signal.

 

And, shortsellers should wait a little longer before loading up a short line.

 

New longs from here should be short term scalp trades only, to take advantage of the various PigPlays which occur during OpEx, EOM Markups, ToutHouse upgrade/downgrades, etc.