3Martinis Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Markets love uncertainty ....... right ? Venezuela Extends Chavez Recall Vote Into Second Day Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela extended a recall referendum on President Hugo Chavez into a second day, after a record turnout and malfunctioning ballot machines kept voters in line for as long as 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Dollar is headed back up , guys. Somebody just jumped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 from Paper Money by Adam Smith, 1981 The binge of the Second Oil Crisis, you will now see, is very relevant to this discussion of Paper money. Remember Sir Thomas Gresham, whose law said bad money drives out good, meaning bad money drives good money out of circulation and into savings. The bad money is spent. In the Second Oil Crisis what was savied was oil, and what was spent was money.The store of value had become oil. The Yen, the marks, the dollars, the francs, were spent; the oil was saved. The leson was not lost. Oil was the good currency, money the bad.. . . The First Oil Crisis in 1973-4, took oil from $2.69 to $11.65 a barrel, about a quaruple. The Second Oil Crisis, following the arrival of the Ayatolla Khomeini, produced rougly a double, to about $28 a barrel in 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 from Paper Money by Adam Smith, 1981 Jelle Zijlstra, the Dutch banker who became the head of the Bank for International Settlements, assessed the situation in 1980 at the fiftieth birthday of that bank. The banks, he said, would work through the Second Oil Crisis. The growth in the West would only be half of hwat we were used to. If the OPE surplus gradually worked down, it would be a sluggish world but it would survive. But the System could not survive a Third Oil Crisis, said ijlstra. Given that , inflation would go up, the recycling to the oil-short nations would be impossible, world trade would crumble, and so woult the System. Three Strikes, Out. Is this not, then, that 3rd Oil Crisis, come at last? Staved off, stick saved for decades by the concerted efforts of western bankers? It seems obvious to me now. When the First Oil Crisis was followed by the Second, within 5 years, we all expected that next shoe to drop within a decade, certainly. But it has not, for the duration of Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II. Not yet, but . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Global liquidity flows...US exports debt inflation to Japan...the excess finds it's way into the Japanese markets... Wall street needs to be propped...Sell Japan...Dollar catches a bid when the Yen is converted... Got to wonder why Japan has been in a trading range for so many years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Paper Money by Adam Smith, 1981 . . .What if OPEC isn't reasonable and the IMF gets lent out? "There will be no choice. The Federal Reserve will call the other central banks for help, but it will be the Lender of Last Resort." To the world? "To the World." Where will the Fed get the money? "It will print it." But that's superinflation! "The System must survive. A burst of liquidity at the right time can save the System and buy time to solve the problems. Otherwise we will have a massive depression, and the Western nations will battle one another for the scraps, as they did in the Depression." "An Act," I said, "to provide for the establishment of the Fed, to furnish an elastic currency, to establish more effective supervision of banking, and for other purposes." "You have been reading the Act," said my banker. "We certainly have an elastic currency," I said. "We do. The men who framed the Act were shaped by money panics, and they thought that a central bank, a Reserve Bank, with, as you say, an elastic currency, could keep the faith of depositors and prevent runs on the banks, and a banking collapse. I suspect the instrument they created may have a wider use than that which they intended." But with more dollars being printed, would people FLEE those dollars? "We hope that a burst of liquidity, properly handled, would restore confidence, not destroy it. Everything will depend on what people believe. A run on the dollar is the end of the System; but remember, there is nowhere else to go. So rationally, everyone will HAVE to believe, because there is no other choice." But the world is not always rational. "No it isn't. It may just be that unthinkable things will happen. (emphasis added) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Hey, Sherlock. When can I get my chart done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 from Paper Money by Adam Smith, 1981 . . .I can hear that voice say, "What do we do on Monday Morning?" To which I might say, "let's look at the Stock Market. Could be a real party." That sounds, I know, a bit like the ball the Duchess of Richmond gave on the eve of the Battle of Waterloo. The duchess had rented a splendid house in Brussels that summer of 1815. Napoleon and his fearsome army were just nine miles away; there were 200,000 soldiers in the Belgian countryside, preparing for this battle that would decide the fate of Europe; over the horizon, guns thudded and boomed. But when the duchess asked whether she could give her ball, the British commander-in-chief, the Duke of Wellington, said, "With the greatest safety, and without fear of interruption." He brought all of his officers, and as the champagne flowed and the music played, some of them had to leave for the regiments in their dancing slippers. With his supreme nonchalance and confidence, Wellington asked, when he finally left the dance floor, "Have you a good map in this house?" Be prepared and confident and light on your feet, and you can come to the party. The other story I heard about the Duke, later at his fatal sea-battle, was that in answer to the nervous inquiries and reports of his subordinates, he put a glass ( a telescope) up to his bad eye, the one covered by an eye patch and said, "Problems? I don't see any problems?" Both of these reflect the sort of behavior of upper management we recognize from Dilbert -- if it works, Great, you're cool and have savoir-faire. If it doesn't then history puts you down for an awful fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Problems,I don't see any problems. That's gold. Let's get this party started. I've been waiting a long time for some... real action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Yes,I have read the ACT. That's why I find MouthyKnobs like Precther so funny. Even funnier is the exposure they get...everywhere. The monetary system is a social experiment. It has no basis in any sort of numerical reality. Flap your lips,spin the propeller atop your hat,buy some bonds,whoopee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Gold calmly walking back over $400 and taking a look around....... Something must have spooked it. Under again. Not for long though. It's just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Paper Money by Adam Smith, 1981. . .What if OPEC isn't reasonable and the IMF gets lent out? "There will be no choice. The Federal Reserve will call the other central banks for help, but it will be the Lender of Last Resort." To the world? "To the World." Where will the Fed get the money? "It will print it." But that's superinflation! "The System must survive. A burst of liquidity at the right time can save the System and buy time to solve the problems. Otherwise we will have a massive depression, and the Western nations will battle one another for the scraps, as they did in the Depression." "An Act," I said, "to provide for the establishment of the Fed, to furnish an elastic currency, to establish more effective supervision of banking, and for other purposes." "You have been reading the Act," said my banker. "We certainly have an elastic currency," I said. "We do. The men who framed the Act were shaped by money panics, and they thought that a central bank, a Reserve Bank, with, as you say, an elastic currency, could keep the faith of depositors and prevent runs on the banks, and a banking collapse. I suspect the instrument they created may have a wider use than that which they intended." But with more dollars being printed, would people FLEE those dollars? "We hope that a burst of liquidity, properly handled, would restore confidence, not destroy it. Everything will depend on what people believe. A run on the dollar is the end of the System; but remember, there is nowhere else to go. So rationally, everyone will HAVE to believe, because there is no other choice." But the world is not always rational. "No it isn't. It may just be that unthinkable things will happen. (emphasis added) A burst of liquidity at the right time can save the System and buy time to solve the problems. The problem is that the time in between bursts of liquidity shrinks...faster and faster...until you need an infinitely sustained burst... And the bank panics leading up to the creation of the FED were the result of localized fractional reserve banking systems reaching maximum potential...There were also reports that the Bankers behind the push for the FED also caused banks to fail to justify their arguments... A bank panic is an effect not a cause...Liquidity bursts are effects not causes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Global liquidity flows...US exports debt inflation to Japan...the excess finds it's way into the Japanese markets... Wall street needs to be propped...Sell Japan...Dollar catches a bid when the Yen is converted... Got to wonder why Japan has been in a trading range for so many years... deleted nikkei_10_year_chart.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Sorry chart wouldn't load. In the last ten years we have traded between 7500 and 22500 on the 225. Definite crash over there. Down from 40K. Up from 100 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Global liquidity flows...US exports debt inflation to Japan...the excess finds it's way into the Japanese markets... Wall street needs to be propped...Sell Japan...Dollar catches a bid when the Yen is converted... Got to wonder why Japan has been in a trading range for so many years... Here is a 20 year chart. I don't see much of a trading range market here. Wild swing up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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