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To bottom or not to bottom, that is the question


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The only question the average guy with losses of half a million is wondering right now is -

 

how long will it take to recover?

 

"It took 7 1/2 years for stocks to regain their losses from the bear market that accompanied the 1973-74 recession." and the 1930's?

 

Yes, you heard it right, my boss said today he has $500,000 in paper losses.

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I apologize if you have already covered this Doc, but the latest Treasury Fails to Deliver data is staggering. Are the PD's counterfeiting Treasuries now? (obligatory sensational characterization :lol: )

 

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_failsdata.txt

 

A chart extrapolated from the data can be found here:

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...annot-take.html ;)

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Tesla Motors Inc. is eliminating one-quarter of its workforce.

 

As many as 87 of the San Carlos electric car company's employees will be gone, mostly from California and an engineering site in Rochester Hills, Mich.

 

Tesla, which began delivering $109,000 Roadsters to customers this year, said last week it would trim jobs and delay production of a second model, a $60,000 electric sedan, until 2011 because of the financial crisis.

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/bottomline/index?

 

post-1339-1224900373.jpg

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"Depending on what time you got up, we had a huge media event." Tom O'brien http://tfnn.s3.amazonaws.com/TOS102408.mp3

 

 

"Contrary to the some people?s belief, the US equities did not crash today. When S&P futures hit its limit down levels before the US markets opened and Dow futures dropped 5 percent, some media outlets were touting the possibility of circuit breakers kicking in; that would have meant an 1100 point decline in the Dow. Thankfully, it did not happen and even though the Dow fell 312 points today, it is off its lows." Kathy Lien http://www.gftforex.com/resources/analysis...st=Kathy%20Lien

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Tesla Motors Inc. is eliminating one-quarter of its workforce.

 

As many as 87 of the San Carlos electric car company's employees will be gone, mostly from California and an engineering site in Rochester Hills, Mich.

 

Tesla, which began delivering $109,000 Roadsters to customers this year, said last week it would trim jobs and delay production of a second model, a $60,000 electric sedan, until 2011 because of the financial crisis.

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/bottomline/index?

 

post-1339-1224900373.jpg

703629[/snapback]

 

Tesla has become one of the "Great Hopes" in the bay area, especially relating to manufacturing jobs. Management has been unstable.. I think they are on their third CEO in as many years. The sedan was just announced a few weeks back and the paper got lathered up about it because it was to be made in San Jose.

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It never ceases to amaze me to see just how much Bullishness is still out there. (not necessarily on this board). Even with the VIX floating above 50 for weeks now, the pundits and amateurs continue to look for bottoms rather than for rallies to short. Personally, I see ZERO signs of recovery on the horizon as the major indexes keep putting in lower highs on all rallies. As a matter of significance, the US indexes are being propped up which makes a selling climax impossible to achieve. Things are about about to get even more interesting in the days ahead. Traders who have stayed on the right side of trend earn my respect. Riverboaters with the "buy the dip bull market mentality" continue to provide sure fire proof that the plunge is imminent..

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Stress? What STRESS?

 

<embed src="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/main.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoGUID={3FF10494-5D10-4C43-BE2F-0DD7F0A0BCAF}&playerid=2000&configURL=http://wsj.vo.llnwd.net/o28/players/&autoStart=false? base="http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/" name="flashPlayer" width="512" height="363" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed>

703595[/snapback]

 

 

That is great. Thanks for posting it.

 

Man, you can just feel the guy?s hopelessness. He hates coming in to work cause they?re all just hanging around waiting for someone else to do something. Unreal! This guy might just as well have come right out and said the markets are dead.

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It never ceases to amaze me to see just how much Bullishness is still out there. (not necessarily on this board). Even with the VIX floating above 50 for weeks now, the pundits and amateurs continue to look for bottoms rather than for rallies to short. Personally, I see ZERO signs of recovery on the horizon as the major indexes keep putting in lower highs on all rallies. As a matter of significance, the US indexes are being propped up which makes a selling climax impossible to achieve. Things are about about to get even more interesting in the days ahead. Traders who have stayed on the right side of trend earn my respect. Riverboaters with the "buy the dip bull market mentality" continue to provide sure fire proof that the plunge is imminent..

703633[/snapback]

 

this is a generational bull being barbequed, takes a while to fully cook

 

lots of people waiting for a rally to short, so we either don't get one of any consequence or one that carries much further than people expect

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The only question the average guy with losses of half a million is wondering right now is -

 

how long will it take to recover?

 

"It took 7 1/2 years for stocks to regain their losses from the bear market that accompanied the 1973-74 recession."  and the 1930's?

 

Yes, you heard it right, my boss said today he has $500,000 in paper losses.

703621[/snapback]

 

Owners of significant RE, Corp bonds, preferred financial stock and common generally are the wealthy within our country and many are old wealth to boot.

The current financial downturn has impacted that class more then any other and as the income stream from interest/dividends various structured debts unwind they will tend to be the biggest financial losers. That does not mean the wealthy will be on the street corner with a tin cup but many have pledged their assets as collateral for larger loans to finance even a bigger and better lifestyle such as buying expensive islands, multi-jet planes, large stock purchases etc so the hit can be pretty hard.

These are also the most politically connected group which explains many of the actions taken by Congress and the current adminstration. Their phones are ringing of the hook and the folks at the other end expect actions to be taken that will turn this situation around quickly.

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