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Weak-end thread June 4-6.


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Mj,

 

Where was the VIX at the other high points of the P/C ratio. I spoke with Glenn Neely about the pcr and he doesn't even bother with it. He feels it is too short term. People shift their emotions too quikly and therfore their exposer to puts or calls. I personaly like your thought about it. One big hedge that could be forced into a profitable situation.

 

I am currently 70% short. 30% cash.

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I noticed a couple of weeks ago starting with the 7,500 MCI layoffs. That most of the big negative news on stocks is being released after 6:30 on Friday. Hoping that all will be forgotten by Monday AM? Or am I just paranoid. What the hell, we have discussions about asteroids and hemmeroids, why not paranoids.

 

:)

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I posted on HyperTiger's board that, for week ending 24 May, M3 down $25.2 bil.

 

By my figuring that works out to about 14.5% annualized.

 

This after a couple of weeks of rip-roaring Weimar Republic-type growth.

 

Something is up.

Week to week, the Fed's seasonal adjustment factors probably are not quite right so week to week swings actually are not too important. In early May, there were many real estate closings taking place that were the delayed effect of mortgage rates falling in early March plus it was a time when late filiers received their tax refunds.

 

A continued fall in the money supply from here would indicate that recent higher interest rates are slowing the creation of new credit, and in our system new credit is essential to increase the money supply. Money supply is closely related to economic activity, so a few more weeks of downtrending would be telling us the economy is slowing down.

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I noticed a couple of weeks ago starting with the 7,500 MCI layoffs. That most of the big negative news on stocks is being released after 6:30 on Friday. Hoping that all will be forgotten by Monday AM? Or am I just paranoid. What the hell, we have discussions about asteroids and hemmeroids, why not paranoids.

 

:)

You are not paranoid buddy. I figure most of us are realists, just trying to survive what might happen. I for one appreciate your updates. Keep em coming. :)

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Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

Doc's calls on the bond and dollar markets have been great.

 

The bond market appears to be in a well defined trend of higher yields. Despite large involuntary purchases of the US dollar by China in May, which were put into Treasuries, the bond market still looks weak. Barring a catasprophic event, short bonds on all temporary dips in yields. I failed to do so this morning myself only because of work obligations (I established a new margin account just this week).

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The point is if property taxes are going up that means more $ for the Cities who in return are cutting back on services and getting rid of people who made a good buck and had benefits and paid taxes and who thru contracting out are replaced by fat slobs with no work ethic, lower pay and no benefits who pay less taxes so in this spiral to the bottom those of us left with the ability to pay will just keep getting even more screwed-Huh!

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