Charmin Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 For you dollar watchers I'd be interested to see if we get a muted sell from the 50bar ma on uncle bucky because of the prior stochastic divergence leading into the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 I always thought shorts covered in commodities on Friday's. WTIC crude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 I was out in the field the other day working with a Line Design tech for the utility and we were talking about what is NOT going on. We came to the conclusion that some of those in the construction/contracting/electical/plumbing field will be hurting a lot more this winter than last year. Today's unemployment sort of reminded me of this. If that doesn't come to pass, then once again us bears will be proven going down the wrong path. "But the unemployment rate, which was forecast to have risen from 9.8% in September to 9.9% in October, actually shot up to 10.2%, its highest level in 26 years." SY Harding http://syhardingblog.com/new/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Just a friendly wav to all on 10 x 10 Friday nite. Final score for the week, Ruling Class Wins w/10k Dow to the 10% employment of the Working Class. German Coast Guard SOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Prepare yourself for tobin tax.... Brown Says G-20 Should Consider Tax on Speculation Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the Group of 20 nations should consider measures such as taxing financial transactions to penalize excessive risk taking and limit the burden on taxpayers of bank failures. “It cannot be acceptable that the benefits of success in this sector are reaped by the few but the costs of its failure are borne by all of us,” Brown told G-20 finance ministers and central bankers at a meeting today in St. Andrews, Scotland. Tighter capital rules and pooled bank resolution funds could also be considered, he said. [...] The debate over whether to implement a global levy on speculation has mounted in recent months with the G-20 asking the International Monetary Fund in September to study it. Twelve nations including Britain, France, Germany and Brazil agreed last month to set up a panel of economists to research its feasibility. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...aLk04&pos=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 NY Times article about how the real unemployment rate is 17.5%. Is that a lot? http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/business...p;th&emc=th I wonder if that will have any effect on "investors" Monday or if it will have sunk into the debris of history by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Acha, it was Friday: UCBH Holdings’ Bank Is Seized, 120th U.S. Lender Shut This Year http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...1DI3c&pos=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Lets focus on Back to the Future. Part 1: stress test. http://www.urbandigs.com/stress-test.jpg Now, think about official 10.2% Unemployment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 everyone is playing forex now... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/02...00bn-fx-hustle/ The $100bn FX hustle $100bn — that’s the daily figure for trading volume in the retail foreign exchange market, where amateur plungers play the dollar and the like. The IPO prospectus for Gain Capital, one of the scores of firms tapping into this area of explosive growth, sets out the juicy business on offer Foreign exchange, or forex, trading is one of the fastest growing areas of retail trading in the financial services industry. According to its most recent report, the Aite Group, a financial services industry market research firm, reported that by the end of 2008, average daily trading volume in the retail forex market reached approximately $100.0 billion, a 900% increase from 2001. Our total annual customer trading volume, which is based on the U.S. Dollar equivalent of notional amounts traded, grew from $120.3 billion in 2004 to $1.49 trillion in 2008, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 87.6%. Our annual customer trading volume from customers residing outside of China grew from $114.3 billion in 2004 to $1.32 trillion in 2008, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 84.3%. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/02...00bn-fx-hustle/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 My berry bearish predictive path I'd like to see happen for the IWM rusty. The swing high would have to come sometime around next Friday.http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1257560431.png Yeh, if bears don't turn it down on Monday, or at least hold things in check and turn it by Tuesday, then TF 600 comes into play. which probably would imply new high on Dow, and at least test of highs on SPX. If bears can keep it down here, then IWM STOs could be in for extended basement action..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 The S&P is heading for 800 Posted by Neil Hume on Nov 02 15:16. That’s the message from Bob Janjuah, RBS’s Chief Markets Strategist in his latest missive titled “Happy Christmas, Cold Turkey Time”: We said in late Aug that S&P would get to 1100/1120 by end Oct/early Nov. We said growth would peak in Aug and then weaken (see above) into and in Q1. This is all playing out. As this plays out, I expect S&P to be in the mid-900s by y/e, and mid/low 800s by Q1 2010. Credit spreads will weaken materially, IG will do better than HY, QUALITY (strong balance sheets) will be the winner. I look for 750 Crossover by late 2009/early 2010, and then further weakness as Q1 unfolds. Govvies shud rally - I prefer BUNDS to USTs or GILTS. The USD will probably rally, but I dislike any currency where PMs are simply printing. GOLD please. GET DEFENSIVE RE RISK. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/02...eading-for-800/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 NY Times article about how the real unemployment rate is 17.5%. Is that a lot? http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/business...p;th&emc=th I wonder if that will have any effect on "investors" Monday or if it will have sunk into the debris of history by then? Except that it's really 16.3% not 17.5%. The 17.5% is a seasonally adjusted rate. Not real. Not actual. A fictitious figure made up by government statisticians. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm Usually the seasonal adjustments understate the severity of a situation. They often enable the media to to report that something is up, when it is in fact down. This is often the case with unemployment claimes and housing sales data. This is a rare exception. However, that being said, 16.3% is horrific. It's up from 12% in October 2008. More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChickenLittle Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Interesting piece. I also think short GBP/USD is not a bad trade since they are both the "printer" countries - but USD has the advantages of size and a much larger short position( carry trade). Moreover UK has just expanded their printing while the Fed on the margin seems to be withdrawing some liquidity. Last but not least the huge Treasury auctions coming up without the Fed bellyin up to the bar may further dry up Dollar liquidity. Although a purer bet on the Dollat short unwind( but more risky) would be short AUD/USD or short EUR/USD. I found the FT pieces on the huge short USD building in China dirving up short term USD borrowing costs to 175bp over USD Libor!! So some risk aversion setting in in Chinese stocks could set off the long awaited Dollar short covering rally. I diasgree that gold is a "safe-haven" asset. It has been rallying along with all the junk assets and will probably sell off with them too. Not a comment on the intrinsic worth or beauty of gold - but more a function of who the recent buyers are. Seems to me hedgies and retail specs are the big players in gold recently - shallow pockets, short term horizons, pure momentum and deep sophomoric convictions about hyperinflation - and easily shaken out. The S&P is heading for 800Posted by Neil Hume on Nov 02 15:16. That’s the message from Bob Janjuah, RBS’s Chief Markets Strategist in his latest missive titled “Happy Christmas, Cold Turkey Time”: We said in late Aug that S&P would get to 1100/1120 by end Oct/early Nov. We said growth would peak in Aug and then weaken (see above) into and in Q1. This is all playing out. As this plays out, I expect S&P to be in the mid-900s by y/e, and mid/low 800s by Q1 2010. Credit spreads will weaken materially, IG will do better than HY, QUALITY (strong balance sheets) will be the winner. I look for 750 Crossover by late 2009/early 2010, and then further weakness as Q1 unfolds. Govvies shud rally - I prefer BUNDS to USTs or GILTS. The USD will probably rally, but I dislike any currency where PMs are simply printing. GOLD please. GET DEFENSIVE RE RISK. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/02...eading-for-800/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Chinese battery maker BYD Apparently Buffett owns 9.9% That is some friggin chart ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 Over on Mike Morgan's blog site http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/ Defending Goldman Sachs by Mike Morgan Let's get real folks. We hear the media complaining about Goldman Sachs receiving 200 doses of H1N1 Swine Flu Pigmen ....get it? BWAHAHAHAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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