The Long And The Short Of It.

[ThorAss]

I'm sure that this aenemic (enemaic?) rally could end at any time but my work is still suggesting another 7 days push to a top. The scan is confirming interest in bottom-fishing with no shorts and about a half dozen new longs. However, if you're looking for a short I'd recommend ASF from Thursday's scan.

 

Longs:

 

AGEN

KRB

MGAM

NOK

PRGX

SFNT (again)

 

I hoping a top in the broads will coincide with a reversal for the PMS.

[ThorAss]

Okay I realise I'm not the most followed poondit around here and I seldom get a good debate going. It may be because I see no use for E waves so we can't have a decent argument about whether it's a B of S wave or whatever but here's a guy of succintly puts forward the possibility of the ST uptrend (I'm talking 7 days) within a secular downtrend using the SPew as proxy.

 

Inflation surprises and the major trend, by Steve Saville

 

Others here have written about shorting at low risk junctures. Is this one or is there a better one in mid-March?

 

I seem SG is coming around to this possibility as well.

 

Unfortunately for me, I'm having a little trouble keeping all of my balls (so to speak) in the air and I may be forced to close out my ST trades in favour of concentrating on the PMS. I may try to hang on for a few more days but I'm not establishing any new positions at this time except in the PMS.

[Drano]

Thor, I very much appreciate your efforts here and over in Goldville.

 

My reaction is reminiscent of the infamous Star Trek "horta" episode, in which Spock, having mind-melded with the Horta, says, "Pain...pain....pain....." Looks like there could be more ahead for us bears in the short term. Ecch.

[Captain's Log]

Thor - appreciate your post. I think everyone's concern is that sucker's rally still has some ST steam. I don't think you'll find a secular bull on this board.

 

As I am still learning, I'm questioning whether this is one of those ST times when I should be sitting and waiting it out. The market oughta go down but there is a lot of political interest in not letting this happen. Oughta doesn't mean will.

 

Don't right off EW's too early. An argument is that we still have a portion of a "C" wave to complete. If so, ST higher till resistance levels and then down. This may fit in with your comments about another week of jamming and also Doc's anals about coming feed gluttony limiting downside.

 

I had my oujii board out last night and luckily enough, got contacted Jesse Livermoore. Jesse had a bit of trouble understanding my questions as he's a bit deaf thesedays from the gunshot noise, but what he spelt was :

 

- I see dead people.

- Be not bull nor a bear but market up or down,

- watch for change of trend with clear pivot signals.

- Be patient and wait. Sometimes in cash.

- Beware of the ax wielding ghost in your downstairs toilet. He wants to murder you while you take a dump.

 

Not sure about the last one and my hand had got tired by then. <_<

 

FYI: I was actually trying to get hold of Marilyn Monroe on the Oujii sex chat line : but she was drunk again and couldn't spell a sentence together.

[phatbubble]

here's a guy of succintly puts forward the possibility of the ST uptrend (I'm talking 7 days) within a secular downtrend using the SPew as proxy.

 

Inflation surprises and the major trend, by Steve Saville

thanks thor. good article. only thing is that saville doesn't say anything for the ST up case except the following:

 

With the market having recently reached an Dover Sole extreme it is quite possible that a similar scenario is playing out now, that is, having already hit the red trend-line and pulled back the market might now move up to the channel top. In this case the 2nd December peak would continue to stand as the ultimate peak of the rally that began on 10th October, but a major decline wouldn't commence until the S&P500 had first moved back to around 920. However, regardless of whether or not we get a bounce to the channel top during the next few months the most important point for most people to remember is that the major trend is still down.

 

....basically, that since we were Dover Sole, we could go up more before turning down again.

 

this should be a low-risk shorting zone, but immense efforts are being expended in an upward direction (now i see that captain's log has said the same thing while i've been typing). it may be best to wait for confirmation either way.

[ThorAss]

Good points!

 

Live Long and PROSPER!

 

 

... now where's that smilie with the Vulcan hand greeting?

[subprime]

Hey Thor,

 

Here is the long and short of it.

 

The P/C 10 day moving average bottomed in the first full week in FEB. Sure enough, we have seen market strength since then. That "strength" has sure been rather week though. With the PC 10day ema at such an exteme reading, I would have bet that we had much stronger rally. No such action.

 

The opposite end of that spectrum is the COT showing that the small traders are EXTREMEMLY bullish right now on the qqq's. Net long the S&P and net short the DOW.

 

I would not be surprised to see a rally here (rather expect it on the Dow) and then another possible tank job.

 

The bottom on the triangle on the S&P appears to be 860-865. I did not take the time to check.

 

What I think we are looking at is another possible July-August 01 type scenario. Charts say we are at or near a bottom, but the price action is anemic.

[sniff]

Good to see someone out there digging,...scan,scan,scan..

 

I am finding both potential for up and down... Some of the safe harbor stocks are getting real peaky. While others have hit rock bottom.

 

Looks like the S&P has some serious resistance to chew it's way through just overhead... The proof will be in the pudd'in so the say.

 

Some believe this will be a wild and whacky week.... we shall see.