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JC


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CORRECTION:

 

I had a brainfart in last night's Third Rail analysis. instead of "they need to close below 1105 to keep the channel intact" , I had written "above 1105". Hope you caught that.

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Guest libertas
So why didn't I buy GOOG at $100?  High oil prices, impending crash, terrorist concerns... or how about valuation?  Should've known this would happen with it's cult following.  Missed the ride up so I'll have to catch the one down.  Question is... where's the top?

Who says that you have to trade Google? You dont have to, there are 1000 other things you can trade, you dont have to trade Google. Look at last nights M2M and read what Doc wrote about Google. He is absolutely right. This thing isnt about valuations, this is about cult. The stock market doesnt work mainly with valuation models. If it would LTCM would have never failed. The stock market has a life on its own. At times people think a PE of 10 is too much, at other times PE cant be high enough and people even dont care about PE's of 100, 200 and more.

P/Es are pretty meaningless because they are an attempt to measure the investment value of a speculative trade. Investments pay out cash in hand - dividends - anything else, where you are hoping for a capital gain, is a speculation. Not that there is anything wrong with speculation, but it is important to remember what you are doing and that you need that greater fool.

 

Once you eliminate investment merit from the equation, earnings really don't mean very much because they are pretty much accounting magic rather than anything useful. I understand that Google, for example, wouldn't have any earnings this quarter if it had been required to use the proposed FASB expense for stock options. People have become so accustomed to a speculative market that they have forgotten about investing.

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