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B4 The Belll Frieday October 29


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This one is to welcome back yobob1:

 

On the Chicago PMI -

 

STEVE RICCHIUTO, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, ABN AMRO, NEW YORK:

 

"The PMI is one of the numbers that kind of bucks the

 

weaker trend we've seen in other data recently, and combined

 

with the fact that the consumer sentiment number edged up from

 

its mid-month reading is encouraging. The factory sector is

 

certainly holding up better than many people had thought. But

 

the articles in the paper this morning about the automobile

 

assemblies possibly being cut on a refusal by the dealers to

 

hold onto larger inventories could be a problem for this going

 

forward."

 

 

Hey vehicle dealers - you are not doing your fair share in accumulating excess inventory! :D

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My discussions with dealers suggest that they have a love, hate, and fearful relationship with the mother ship company..... Overall, the are generally suspect of the corporate decisions....so its highly probably that they will resist all efforts by the big company unless they get incentives....

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600 sounds right. But since when was reality invited to the party?

Soup:

 

If the market continues to drive you crazy, you might want to make use of the www.SoupToNuts.com URL...it's available for purchase.

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On a 5 minute chart the DJI looks like and inverted head and shoulders. A break of 1015 would have a target of 1040, which would be a double top of the move earlier this morning.

 

On the other hand the housebuilders are on the way down so I'll probably short more at the next DJI peak.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls

10/29/2004

 

NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - A leading index of the U.S. economy fell in the latest week, due to lower mortgage applications and a rise in people filing for initial jobless claims, a report showed on Friday.

 

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) fell to 130.6 in the week ended Oct. 22 compared with 131.6 in the previous week. ECRI noted the fall in the index was offset slightly by lower bond yields,

 

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell to an 84-week low of -1.4 percent from -1.0 in the prior week.

 

"The WLI is saying 'don't worry, but don't be happy' by showing little risk of growth falling off a cliff, but no sign of a strong reacceleration in growth either." said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director of ECRI.

 

"It's notable that today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, where weakness caught the market off-guard, is consistent with earlier declines in the WLI," Achuthan added.

 

http://www.businesscycle.com/showstory.php?storyID=736

 

This organization's data does not square with the PMI either.

Despite the Chicago PMI, business should worry and not be happy over the declining liquidity in the economy.

 

Money supply growth is lagging behind nominal GDP growth for six months. After getting a huge boost from mortgage credit expansion in the first and into the second quarters, the money supply is stagnating and about to turn down.

 

Either the economy will slow down or the money supply will have to expand faster.

I don't yet see the mechanism for the later.

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page6.pdf

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Soup:

 

Yeah, come on all of you, big strong men,

Uncle Sam needs your help again.

He's got himself in a terrible jam

Way down yonder in Vietnam

So put down your books and pick up a gun,

We're gonna have a whole lotta fun.

 

And it's one, two, three,

What are we fighting for ?

Don't ask me, I don't give a damn,

Next stop is Vietnam;

And it's five, six, seven,

Open up the pearly gates,

Well there ain't no time to wonder why,

Whoopee! we're all gonna die.

 

Well, come on generals, let's move fast;

Your big chance has come at last.

Gotta go out and get those reds ?

The only good commie is the one who's dead

And you know that peace can only be won

When we've blown 'em all to kingdom come.

 

And it's one, two, three,

What are we fighting for ?

Don't ask me, I don't give a damn,

Next stop is Vietnam;

And it's five, six, seven,

Open up the pearly gates,

Well there ain't no time to wonder why

Whoopee! we're all gonna die.

 

Huh!

 

Well, come on Wall Street, don't move slow,

Why man, this is war au-go-go.

There's plenty good money to be made

By supplying the Army with the tools of the trade,

Just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb,

They drop it on the Viet Cong.

 

And it's one, two, three,

What are we fighting for ?

Don't ask me, I don't give a damn,

Next stop is Vietnam.

And it's five, six, seven,

Open up the pearly gates,

Well there ain't no time to wonder why

Whoopee! we're all gonna die.

 

Well, come on mothers throughout the land,

Pack your boys off to Vietnam.

Come on fathers, don't hesitate,

Send 'em off before it's too late.

Be the first one on your block

To have your boy come home in a box.

 

And it's one, two, three

What are we fighting for ?

Don't ask me, I don't give a damn,

Next stop is Vietnam.

And it's five, six, seven,

Open up the pearly gates,

Well there ain't no time to wonder why,

Whoopee! we're all gonna die.

 

-Country Joe McDonald

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