Bears take em out big red for the day and the week

[Goldmember]

Dow Jones Utilities...A Tale of Two Tails:

 

...or, How I Stopped Worrying and Learned To Love The Power Plant

[Goldmember]

Teck Resources: Took a lot of heat...somethin' about coal, became Chart O' The Year afterward in Canada.

 

Now...if resistance becomes shport...

 

Chart O' The Year setting up the mother of all blowoffs?

 

That'll catch just about everyone by surprise.

 

Boo...

[cwd]

I, too, have been bearish lately -- and this same thing is giving me pause. The SPX and NDX declines can be viewed as cleanly impulsive under Elliott wave rules -- the Dow's decline, on the other hand is NOT impulsive. It is definitely corrective so far (the 1st and 4th waves overlap), implying higher prices. So it will be interesting to see if the Dow gets dragged down (and the count turns out to have been the leading portion of a larger, less apparent impulse wave) -- or if it holds up the broader market.

 

 

Pretz, welcome back.

[swordfish]

Welcome home Pretz!

[swordfish]

There are some sentence about markets which should correspond to market behaviour:

a ) January effect (should go up) - in 2009 we go down

b ) sell in may and go away (should go down) - in 2009 we went up

c ) sell in summer time (it will go down) - in 2009 we went up

d ) sell in October - crash course - in 2009 depends on the indices - sideways, little up or down but no crash

 

and here we come to Dec in 2009 - should see Santa rally?- Well, this time, based on upside down behaviour in 2009, we should go down.....

[ChickenLittle]

I know a lot of folks here trade ETFs in their IRAs. A question - take ETFs like UUP and UDN. Does one need to worry about UBTI income that will require filing tax returns on the IRA?

 

I believe this was an issue on some of the commodity ETFs . Not sure about the ultras - SKF, SRS etc.

 

This UBTI ( unrelated business taxable income) deal is very confusing - as are most things about the utterly bizarre and broken US tax system( nothing makes sense, nobody fully understands it, everyone is probably guilty of something or another - perhaps the govt likes it this way - so everyone is guilty - nobody is ever clean - because it is impossible to actually fully comply- this is standard operatinmg procedure in places like the ex Soviet Union etc- helps to keep people in line) - but I guess we have to deal with it.

[ChickenLittle]

There are some sentence about markets which should correspond to market behaviour:

a ) January effect (should go up) - in 2009 we go down

b ) sell in may and go away (should go down) - in 2009 we went up

c ) sell in summer time (it will go down) - in 2009 we went up

d ) sell in October - crash course - in 2009 depends on the indices - sideways, little up or down but now crash

 

and here we come to Dec in 2009 - should see Santa rally?- Well, this time, based on upside down behaviour in 2009, we should go down.....

 

Yeah these "seasonal" patterns were prevalent in the "old" USA. Because the system was relatively stable and people behaved in somewhat predictable seasonal ways. eg. Sell losers at year end to accelerate losses - defer income (does not make sense any more if you believe tax rates will go up a lot in the next few years). Nothing is as before - I think it is best to ignore historical seasonal patterns - we are not in a stable system anymore.

[Rationalize]

Yeah these "seasonal" patterns were prevalent in the "old" USA. Because the system was relatively stable and people behaved in somewhat predictable seasonal ways. eg. Sell losers at year end to accelerate losses - defer income (does not make sense any more if you believe tax rates will go up a lot in the next few years). Nothing is as before - I think it is best to ignore historical seasonal patterns - we are not in a stable system anymore.

None of those "patterns" actually existed b4, and none exist going forward.

 

Just another set of myths for one's friendly d-bag borker to exploit, leading to "So, it's a great time to Buy Stocks".

 

"Once in a lifetime opportunity"

 

"The smarrt money is doing it"

 

"Ride on the coat tails of ... "

 

"Our anal cysts are going wild over..."

 

"Everyone's buying the dip" :ninja:

 

-> Reamtail Borker Porking Season

 

Awwsome.

[I_Am_Madness]

Let's look at the 'money' index (S&PEE).

 

This topping process look very similar to May/June timeframe.

- We got the 3 peaks.

- Volume peaked in the 2nd peak.

- Volume crashed on the 3rd peak.

- Closed below the 50 dma on a big 200+ point down day.

- Bottom of the BBand now.

 

I expect a move up over the next few days into the 1060-1070 area before next leg down to the 980 area or a test of the 200 dma...around 930?

[Slappy]

This weekends deep thought from Jim Sinclair :

 

The so called quick surgical bankruptcy of CIT will result in a company that will only be able to provide 20% of its previous level of financial services to Middle America according to Friday’s Wall Street Journal.

 

Any institutions replacing these services will have:

 

1. Higher levels of credit worthiness to be met by small business.

 

2. Less funds committed to these loans.

 

Further, the assets of CIT in bankruptcy are the middle American loans outstanding that will be brutally attacked by the bankruptcy process.

 

That is going to result in a flood of middle American businesses declaring bankruptcy.

 

 

Zippidee doo da

[DrStool]

Precious Metals Update 11/1/09 – Professional Edition

by Lee Adler, Sunday, November 1, 2009, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

[Slappy]

<h2 class="post-title">Precious Metals Update 11/1/09 – Professional Edition</h2>

by Lee Adler, Sunday, November 1, 2009, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

 

Yep, checked the link and the report, and it gets our most prestidigious certification:

 

[swordfish]

Saudis drop WTI oil contract

Saudi Arabia yesterday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

The decision by the world's biggest oil exporter could encourage other producers to abandon the benchmark and threatens the dominance of the world's most heavily traded oil futures contract. It is the main contract traded on Nymex.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2034dd70-c42c-11de...;nclick_check=1

 

 

Turkey to use national currencies in trade with Iran, China

ANKARA, October 28 (RIA Novosti) - Turkey is switching to national currencies in trade with Iran and China, ending dependence on the U.S. dollar and the euro for about 20% of its commodity turnover, local media reported on Wednesday.

Turkey has already switched to settlements in national currencies with Russia amid weakening confidence in the greenback as the world's major reserve currency. The move was initiated by Turkish President Abdullah Gul during his visit to Moscow in February.

Turkey's decision to make settlements with Iran and China in national currencies was announced during a visit to Iran by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish premier told a Turkish-Iranian business forum on Tuesday that the countries had prepared a legal framework for transition to settlements in national currencies.

"We have adopted a necessary legislative act and are prepared for the transition," the Turkish newspaper Milliyet quoted Erdogan as saying.

According to the paper, Turkey's trade with Russia, Iran and China exceeds $65 billion a year. Russia is Turkey's largest trade partner, with $37.8 billion commodity turnover registered last year.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on October 14 that Russia was ready to consider using the Russian and Chinese national currencies instead of the dollar in bilateral oil and gas dealings.

"We are ready to examine the possibility of selling energy resources for rubles, but our Chinese partners need rubles for that. We are also ready to sell for yuans," Putin said.

Britain's Independent newspaper reported in early October that Russian officials had held "secret meetings" with Arab states, China and France on ending the use of the U.S. dollar in international oil trade.

The countries are reportedly seeking to switch from the dollar to a basket of currencies including the euro, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, gold, and a new unified currency of leading Arab oil producing countries.

The Independent said the meetings have been confirmed by Chinese and Arab banking sources, although Russian officials said they had no knowledge of the talks.

http://en.rian.ru/business/20091028/156617011.html

[ChicagoBear]

Just playing with my crayons today - here's an over-simplified look at the indexes, and a theory to go with it.

 

I starting with the premise that we are in a bear market. From that, you would expect that we see bounces in the markets along the way, but that the downtrend will remain in force.

 

The tech bubble bear market lasted over 2 years before bottoming. This bear isn't 2 years old yet, and I am assuming that this will last longer than the tech bear based on the recognition that the tech bear was ended by stimulating the housing bubble. As of today, I don't see any bubble being created which will stimulate the consumer.

 

Plus, I think its just absurd to believe that we're going to continue with a V-shaped recovery in the markets, when the economy (esp. the housing industry) and government finances (ref. Doc's Fed report) continue to deteriorate.

 

So, here are a couple downtrends in the SP and Nasdaq. I used the Friday, 10/03/08 date (red circle) to peg the bottom limit of the downtrend, and took the liberty of making the upper trend line fit. The week after 10/03 looks to me like the place where all indexes fell to, before completely crashing the following week (taking us below the trend).

 

Maybe this is oversimplified garbage, but it could be worth noting. If these downtrends are still in force, then we might expect the SP to fall somwhere in the 1000-900 range, and the NAS to fall into the 1900-1600 range.

 

Without being the supernatural technical anal cyst that some of you guys are (that's a compliment ), I would not disagree we'll see some pauses and bounces along the way. In my cookie-cutter world, I'd watch moving average support and psycho round numbers.

 

One caveat hinges on the actions of the Fed's. Doc's analysis has been dead right about the effects of the treasury monetization. With that stimulus gone, the markets are cracking. Wednesday could be pivotal depending on their intentions for treasuries. If they keep the program shut down, then the markets are going down. But if they decide to re-instate the purchases, bears better watch out!

 

I'm still holding all my index shorts, and will try to keep them through Wednesday's announcement. At this point, the top is in and the uptrends are broke on the SP & NAS (and close to breaking on the DOW). I went back through my charts and since 2004, when I first started tracking distribution & accumulation days, I have never seen 7 straight distribution days over 2 weeks, without a single day of accumulation, ever. This selling is the most intense I've ever seen.

 

 

[ChicagoBear]

Just for reference, here's the IBD100. These are the top 100 growth companies at the moment, and includes names like BIDU, GOOG, and APPL. Basically, if there were a silver lining in this recession, then you would spot it here (i.e. where there is growth in the economy). This chart isn't very impressive at the moment. Notice the relative strength (RS-relative to SP) line breaking-down near new lows.