Guest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Dow still under the 20,50 and 200dEMAs...and under 10500 resistance. Window dessing now over. The onus is on the bulls, eh? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The anus on the bears is Big Al's target right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 the way i see it right now is that some short term stuff has turned up longer term still looks down nothing has lined up yet for me so i am neutral but still short <{POST_SNAPBACK}> That makes 2 of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 When 20 feet of water rise on the outside of a building there is usually irreparable structural damage; if there is a basement it usually collapses. All the mortgages on such structures that were not covered by flood insurance are now backed by close-to-worthless property. No one in New Orleans has a basement. It would be filled with water even in normal times. And most folks are poor enough that they can not afford to rebuild, even if they had a mortgage rather than renting, which is what most people do. I don't see how there would be much money to be made in building apartments for people who now have no jobs or money to rent them. The city was in dire straits economically before this happened. That is unlikely to change now. There is a tiny rich class, and a small lower middle class that may be able to find jobs elsewhere and relocate. But I can hardly imagine this would be enough to justify large increases in homebuilding stock prices. The recovery from this, if it happens at all, will not be at all like some recovery from a disaster in some place like Kali where there is substantial money to flow into rebuilding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 the way i see it right now is that some short term stuff has turned up longer term still looks down nothing has lined up yet for me so i am neutral but still short? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> after today I'm neutered but still short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 When 20 feet of water rise on the outside of a building there is usually irreparable structural damage; if there is a basement it usually collapses. All the mortgages on such structures that were not covered by flood insurance are now backed by close-to-worthless property. No one in New Orleans has a basement. It would be filled with water even in normal times. And most folks are poor enough that they can not afford to rebuild, even if they had a mortgage rather than renting, which is what most people do. I don't see how there would be much money to be made in building apartments for people who now have no jobs or money to rent them. The city was in dire straits economically before this happened. That is unlikely to change now. There is a tiny rich class, and a small lower middle class that may be able to find jobs elsewhere and relocate. But I can hardly imagine this would be enough to justify large increases in homebuilding stock prices. The recovery from this, if it happens at all, will not be at all like some recovery from a disaster in some place like Kali where there is substantial money to flow into rebuilding. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> good point immediate impact will be swell in unemployment rolls and more public aSSistance for the displaced run the $$$ presses Al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Poopercycle Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Freedom and Democracy on the march. http://images.salon.com/news/feature/2005/...ery/image71.jpg WARNING: Not for squeamish. Reasonable approximation of what dip buyers will look like when one dip too many is bought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 good point immediate impact will be swell in unemployment rolls and more public aSSistance for the displaced run the $$$ presses Al <{POST_SNAPBACK}> That would be great if Al and the other PTB gave the attention to New Orleans that they do to Iraq. Unfortunately I don't think they will-- except to rebuild oil refineries perhaps. But at least maybe that will bring a few jobs back to an area where people are desperate for work, so it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 gaSSoline has hit $5 per gallon in Atlanta probably good for another 100-point goose up on the Dow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Just the usual EOM Stoolie PMS to me. Whaddyaspect? Mark it on your monthly calendar. Set your watch on an open about 1/2 of today's gain, then flat to negative close. Friday will be a slow, painful, premium burn... Ya wonder when the bad news will be bad again...'prolly the next rate hike that nobody thinks the Fed has the balls to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Holy s**t...there has been a freakin' shark spotted in downtown New Orleans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Next 10 days or so all important for RE stocks methinks..if they can't crash 'em after this bounce, all those shorts will be forced to cover... The markets are definitely ready to make a large move fairly soon..I have a bias towards a downside resolution at this point, but I'm ready to play either way.. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> K-Wave, if this week does prove to be a bottom, I hope you'll stay with us for the upphase. I think most Stoolies will agree that among the worst losses caused by any rally have been your regular comments and insights. Please stick around. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> K-Wave has never been around for any of the rallies. Even the really big ones. He just disappears. He doesn't tell us if he's playing any longs. I have no idea what he does in the meantime. I've begged him to stick around, but he refuses. Claims he doesn't want to post on a "bear board". I've done my best to try to get this board to be a "neutral" one, which plays both ways. But one thing is for sure. There aren't any technically oriented boards which are bullish. Clearstation, Trader's Talk, Ike's site, and this place are loaded with bears most of the time. That's why I stick with the notion that all the technicians are still obsessed with picking tops and "making a fortune on the next big bear market". That's why I remain bullish until the mood really changes, and most "technicians" throw in the towel and claim "Its a new bull market!! and forget the short side." If I recall, that was the mood at the March 2000 highs, and again at the Labor Day 2000 highs. Nobody was gunning for shorts. Everybody was on the long side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 So far so good. Bullish trends are still intact. Most likely, one final leg up that will clean the clocks of the bears for good. My clock has been cleaned so many times now it's not even right 2 times per day anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 From MarketWatch: Bush administration and Fed officials insist? that Katrina's effects won't derail the U.S. economy The very fact that they need to tell me this makes me concerned. I have no idea how a derailed economy will affect the stock market [i suspect it won't be negative, if it does], but I do know how it will affect the people of this country - for most, their lives will be even more miserable than they are now. What I have come to understand with this tragedy down in NO and with the comments that Ben Bernanke made today is that the government has no interest in protecting the people of this country.? There is one thing and only one thing the government cares about, and that is protecting the scam that they like to call the financial markets.? That is their #1 goal.? Nothing else is as important. If you and I have to pay $5/gallon for gasoline, so be it as long as the financial markets (schemes) are protected.? They have no other choice but to print money! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Either they print more money, driving energy and raw material prices through the roof, or they print less (which Greenie seemed to be indicating last weekend), in which it all comes down. But, I guess each chart is its own separate universe. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Al Greenspan, and his cult of personality on Wall Street, will soon have to get used to a new boss. This will probably be Ben "The Printer" Bernanke, if not officially then practically as head of the Council of Economic Advisors. Another coup by the GWB adminstration may be in the works to seize total control over the markets through Ben. If Ben can shrug off the sudden loss of one million jobs as being positive for the economy, who knows what he is capable of. The great game is still inflation. AG's remorse about the housing bubble will soon fade when joe 6 pack won't be able to drive to work. It will then be up to the new guy to decide how to address these credit sores created by the Greenspan Fed. With the kind of bristling bravado only a man outside the ring can have, Greenspan admonished the future Fed to get tough and "resist any temptation to monetize." Yeah, that's easy for you to say, Al. You just created the beast. The new guy's got to battle it. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB112543688884127034.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 As a commercial real estate anal cyst, I would say for sure that NO will not be rebuilt. There is nothing there to rebuild. It would be completely infeasible to rebuild tens of thousands of living units that do not pay enough rent to cover the cost of construction. The Federal government is already broke. It cannot foot the bill for the hundreds of billions, perhaps trillion, that would be required to rebuild the areas that have been destroyed. First of all, they haven't even stopped the basin from filling up. Assuming they can solve that problem, just exactly how are they going to drain a huge lake that's below sea level, when the pumps have all been destroyed. New Orleans is ruin. It may forever remain a monument to man's monumental stupidity. And don't forget. New Orleans is only part of the problem. There's Biloxi, Pascagoula, Mobile, Gulfport etc., etc. etc. As the magnitude of the problem and the fact of our inability to adequately cope with the idea of a couple million homeless refugees here within our own borders becomes clear, there will be a sober re-evaluation of what the future holds for all of us in the US. Traders can shoot first and ask questions later, trying to take advantage of the idea that they can profit from this, but I think they need to be nimble. When the Fed pumped that $7.75 billion this morning, we all saw the handwriting on the wall. The fix was in for the short run. The end of day rally was well telegraphed by the tape action. Some short term indicators on the daily charts had been pointing up for many days. So finally the rally came. But, as several of you have appropriately pointed out, intermediate and longer term indicators have not turned up yet. They have a very small window, a day or two at most, to get that job done. If they don't, it will take a lot less time to unwind the up phase than it did to get it off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Freedom and Democracy on the march. http://images.salon.com/news/feature/2005/...ery/image71.jpg WARNING: Not for squeamish. Reasonable approximation of what dip buyers will look like when one dip too many is bought. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> link is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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