wndysrf Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 Never before has there been so much lust. Emerging market stocks, bonds, converts, of every stripe, race, and color snapped up by the HedgeFunds. In the meantime, Argentina strands over 500,000 bagholders on over 150 different bond issues: From today's WSJ: Argentina Looks Likely To Pull Off Bond Discount Hard Line Is Wearing Down Investors as Deadline Nears; A Model for Other Debtors? By MICHAEL CASEY BUENOS AIRES -- With a week to go before its proposal to bondholders expires, Argentina increasingly looks as if it will be able to declare victory in its offer to restructure $103 billion of debt, which would provide the country a fresh start and investors a lesson on the risks of sovereign default. If Argentina succeeds, it may again be able to borrow in international markets to fund infrastructure projects -- as well as repair its relations with the International Monetary Fund. Argentina's success also may embolden leaders of debtor nations to twist the arms of lenders harder than once thought possible. Argentina has offered holders of its defaulted national bonds only 30 cents on the dollar -- about half what other nations have offered when they defaulted -- and stuck with that offer despite criticism that the country could afford to pay more. Rather than buckle, Argentina recently enacted a law prohibiting itself from ever making a new offer. As of last week, holders of about 40% of Argentina's defaulted bonds had accepted the proposal, but the rate of acceptance is accelerating as the Feb. 25 end of the offering draws closer. Most anal cysts expect the final tally to exceed 75%. "The shift in expectations itself is what is fueling more participation," says Carola Sandy, an anal cyst at Credit Suisse Group's Credit Suisse First Boston in New York, who believes an 80% final acceptance rate is a "reasonable" expectation. A 75% acceptance rate would mark a clear success for Argentine President Nestor Kirchner. While other sovereign restructurings have had rates of at least 85%, Argentina's is considered more complex because it involved 500,000 bondholders and 152 different defaulted bond issues. The IMF and U.S. Treasury have hinted they would be satisfied with 75%, which could restore Argentina's access to IMF funds. A successful debt restructuring would be a big help for Argentina's economy, especially in restoring access to foreign credit for Argentine companies. Argentina still would have a high level of debt -- about $115 billion, equal to about 85% of its gross domestic product. But former Argentine Finance Secretary Daniel Marx says Argentina would have a far more "relaxed" payment schedule after the restructuring, because the arrangement slashes interest rates and extends the expiration dates on the bonds. Argentina defaulted in December 2001 as the country fell into a recession so bad that half the nation fell below the poverty line. When the Economy Ministry came up with its 30-cents-on-the dollar offer in June 2004, it posted the documents on its Web site under the name "finalisimo." But many bondholders figured the government was posturing. .................................. Wanna bet that the next round of bond deals floated out of Argentina are oversubscribed??? Wanna bet that the financings will be pulled off at just over a fraction over the T-Bone Yield? Wanna bet that there will be a voracious appetite for new IPO's and corporate debt issues coming out of Argentina? Wanna bet that the MerVal takes off again, and powers up to higher highs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 I'm following that very closely, as we have a lot of performing and non-performing bonds, both sovereign and corporate. Many high quality argentine corporates are already yielding less than 10%, and have been for quite a while. The local peso-denominated debt is still a performing asset, as there were no cross default clauses on those, and they trade in the 70s. The local pension funds, who for years were practically forced to buy sovereigns almost at gunpoint before the default, really have no other choice than to accept the offer. Many of those bonds were magically priced at purchase levels in capital accounts and didn't have to mark to market anyways. The japanese creditors are the toughest lot to bargain with, as they still don't understand...and can't believe... that they won't get every dollar back they are owed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 18, 2005 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 Nothing's changed. Global Indexes are still looking fine. The one I was worried about (India) finally turned green today. So for now, the green lights are still on........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 Defaulted argentine dollar denominated debt has been trading at 30 cents on the dollar for over a year now, way before the announcement. This is the play of the year for the Street. As soon as the excghange goes through, all the exchanged debt (and it is a lot) automatically enters and raises significantly the country's performing outstanding debt , which in turn, will force JP Morgan to raise the benchmark weightings for ARgentina in the EMBI (Emrging Mrkt Bond Index) and in the LEI (Latin Eurobond Index) indexes. You can imagine the stampede into Argentina that all the emrging market bond portfolio mangers will have to do. The Street is long Argentina, and they will make a killing. Of course, they will sell their entire inventory right before yields take off and all the buyers go underwater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and dear M2Mers: again, over and over, da Track rules! as just posted by Sudaca, the poor Japanese, lacking the number of Tracks that da Mericans enjoy, have not yet learned da Truth, which every bettor must learn....Where do they learn it, jickiss???? At the Window! Why jickiss?? Because sometimes, you bet, at the Window, but You Do Not Get Your Money Back!! poor Japanese. They ought to get more tracks for that region.... HooHa! "as they still don't understand...and can't believe... that they won't get every dollar back they are owed" ---by Sudaca. this is a great wording of the Track Crybaby Phenomenon, and well said, indeed, Sudaca. Your are a Master of Understatement! just wait till da Mericans don't get back their money back on Real Estate! (all hell will break loose)! HooHa! Hold Fast! regards to all! jickiss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 Close: PPI and FDA were the acronyms of the day... The former contained bad news for the market while the latter contained good news... With a long weekend ahead of us, we'll start with the bad and end with the good... With respect to the January PPI report, the bad was its core component (excludes food and energy), which showed a surprising 0.8% increase versus the consensus estimate that called for a more modest 0.2% increase... A big spike in tobacco prices (+3.4%) had something to do with the surprise, but nontheless, in light of Greenspan's recent testimony, the market wasn't inclined to dismiss the spike as an aberration... The concern about rising inflation, and the angst ahead of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report, was palpable in the Treasury market where the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note jumped 8 basis points to 4.26% and the yield on the 30-yr bond rose 7 basis points to 4.65%... This jump in rates had the stock market on edge throughout the session, especially the financial sector (-0.98%), which held the broader market back all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 nice try overshot, but I don't think the market's going to forget a $1/2 billion shelf registration, even if you release the news on a Fri after the close: Overstock.com files $500 mln mixed shelf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and Dear Machine Head: the 367 MACD says that the gimmick is over. yessss. it is over! tol:nem. ring ring ring ring ring, ring my bell! (was that in a chapter, Machine Head???) the Sign: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and FWIW to all M2Mers, as posted earlier on M2M, the elimination of Louise Yamada at Smith Barney, as well as her associates, is a very BEARISH sign to your jickiss. why, jickiss??? well, this group was developed by the very famous and very highly regarded Mr. Alan Shaw, retired technical anal cyst, who left for good around 2000 or was it 2001? Shaw Never Never lied or pulled any of his opinions. Now, for sure, to sit down with Shaw, or, more accurately, to walk around the Chartroom with Shaw, involved access to big commissions and instiutional money. Few were lucky enough to see Shaw in New York. Since Yamada was ranked #1, and since it was reported here, months ago, that she had some big numbers on, for instance, NEM, well, well, well.. well.......the story speaks volumes to your jickiss!!!! Hold Fast! Trouble is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and Dear Machine Head:?? the 367 MACD says that the gimmick is over.? yessss. it is over! tol:nem.? ?? ring ring ring ring ring, ring my bell!?? (was that in a chapter, Machine Head???) ? ? the Sign: <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Wow, jickiss. It is a cosmic coincidence, for sure. My 'Fannie Mae : West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil' chart (inspired by jickiss's inspired 'ratiocinations') HIT A NEW THREE-YEAR LOW TODAY. In macro terms, this ratio is 'Leveraged Finance : Crude Earl.' And Crude Earl is winning, big. Fannie be in bad trouble. Her brother Freddie is bad sick. Maybe Mister Market too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and Dear Machine Head: UB fast and UB Right and Right on, too! For, it has been well said, and it is true, that "Great Minds Think Alike!" for sure, and to be Very Serious, all will benefit by the study of "Pairs" or Gimmicks, (Exacta Tables at da Track). As the Leader, MM himself,has taught, the money moves around and around. your jickiss, noting the "up"- ness today of NVDA, (who was so Short, as to cause the recent move up in NVDA?) "da Commander" (a jickiss friend) has had NVDA as his #2 position for years. rode it up to 70 whatever, down to whatever, now still long. Doc is right. Retail hates to ever sell.....But Not So for Da Boyz!!! as MM said, the Real Traders work in the background, and the coin is made when two legs are played at the same time, Long "XYZ," Short "ABC," etc, etc. here is another way to look at NVDA. Now look, if NVDA has some new invention, or something really special, it could just go up for months...but, well, you decide after looking at the next Gimmick "Pairs" Chart, here it is: NVDA vs AMAT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and Dear Machine Head:?? the 367 MACD says that the gimmick is over.? yessss. it is over! tol:nem.? ?? ring ring ring ring ring, ring my bell!?? (was that in a chapter, Machine Head???) ? ? the Sign: <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Wow, jickiss. It is a cosmic coincidence, for sure. My 'Fannie Mae : West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil' chart (inspired by jickiss's inspired 'ratiocinations') HIT A NEW THREE-YEAR LOW TODAY. In macro terms, this ratio is 'Leveraged Finance : Crude Earl.' And Crude Earl is winning, big. Fannie be in bad trouble. Her brother Freddie is bad sick. Maybe Mister Market too. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> One of the institutional Fund Managers that acquired a large Fannie Fubar block a week or so ago: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/...0&e=4&ncid=1007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 Do you trade chart patterns or the economy numbers??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b1ff Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and FWIW to all M2Mers, as posted earlier on M2M, the elimination of Louise Yamada at Smith Barney, as well as her associates, is a very BEARISH sign to your jickiss. why, jickiss??? well, this group was developed by the very famous and very highly regarded Mr. Alan Shaw, retired technical anal cyst, who left for good around 2000 or was it 2001? Shaw Never Never lied or pulled any of his opinions. Now, for sure, to sit down with Shaw, or, more accurately, to walk around the Chartroom with Shaw, involved access to big commissions and instiutional money. Few were lucky enough to see Shaw in New York. Since Yamada was ranked #1, and since it was reported here, months ago, that she had some big numbers on, for instance, NEM, well, well, well.. well.......the story speaks volumes to your jickiss!!!! Hold Fast! Trouble is coming <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Jickiss, I really dig your "historical backfill". You sure can't find this stuff on CNBS, or even PBS. Wall Street does everything in its power to keep participants in a knowledge vacuum. Every new morning sees yesterdays news "down the memory hole" with a whole new set of "double-plus good" bullhorns and touts in its place. Thanks again to you and all the other "grizzled veterans" who share their hard won knowledge of a field that seems to hide its history like a crazy aunt in the attic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted February 18, 2005 Report Share Posted February 18, 2005 jickiss is back! and Dear M2Mers: Start the Screaming! the Machine Head Danger Signal Be Flashing! Earl and Foobar running in Different Directions Means Ouch! by the way, your jickiss thinks that the following, (though to be an Elemental indicator), has completed a Wave Count Deal Down, (12345 type) and the MACD is in a positive divergence mode. GLD should appear now-----> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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