DICK BUTTkus Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 So whats your point? You or someone else better buy a third house then a fourth house and a fifth house... It won't last forever... When real estate collapses or just returns to normal sustainable growth, 10's of millions will become unemployed in the aftermath... The only reason the housing market is where it is today is lower interest rates... Hyper, the point is simply that garbage in = garbage out. If the numbers used to support a case are incomplete, the conclusions may be erroneous. Yes, I think there is a bubble in RE prices. Will the bubble deflate if interest rates rise? At some point, yes. But whether the underlying dynamics mean it will be pricked in 7-11 months I can't say, because the variables are complex and the wiles of those in power are considerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fukui-san Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 So whats your point? You or someone else better buy a third house then a fourth house and a fifth house... It won't last forever... When real estate collapses or just returns to normal sustainable growth, 10's of millions will become unemployed in the aftermath... The only reason the housing market is where it is today is lower interest rates... Hyper, the point is simply that garbage in = garbage out. If the numbers used to support a case are incomplete, the conclusions may be erroneous. Yes, I think there is a bubble in RE prices. Will the bubble deflate if interest rates rise? At some point, yes. But whether the underlying dynamics mean it will be pricked in 7-11 months I can't say, because the variables are complex and the wiles of those in power are considerable. You dare to question the revealed truth of our prophet Hyperventilator the Insolvent? The author of the massive philosophical work "A Pee into the Future" (it's not his fault the publisher accidently dropped a "k"). May you be visited by a plague of real estate agents, mortage brokers, and telephone sanitizers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Let's hope this doesn't start happening in housing. IN talking with various friends across the U.S these past few weeks, each must be living in "isolated" areas of layoffs, where 5-10 neighbors have been axed and have been refinancing to lower their monthly nut. Most haven't found a job. Some have...usually at a Home depot or similar. What a nice way to put things, 82% of new vehicle loans were more than 4 years (or 5 years or greater perhaps). Everybody trying to make that payment as low as possible....so they can pile on even more debt I suppose Sorry for the sarcasm, but when you were raised to live within your means and the neighbors 19 year old working part time at a convenience store and going to school is able to qualify and buy a $75,000 house on their "outstanding" credit history, well, I suspect the implosion will be fast, furious and dramatic. Yes, it's true most of us live in isolated pockets (of worry?) and we assume that the government or other contrived numbers are an aggregate reality. They aren't of course. It is the old confidence game. If people think things are getting better then maybe it can become a self fulfilling prophecy. "The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself". The problem with confidence games is that they usually don't work unless there is some basis for things to improve: actual income increases, pent-up consumer demand, low debt levels, capital spending increases, commercial property vacancy rates falling, etc. None of those conditions exist currently, nor are they going to exist anytime soon. I too have come to the conclusion that the only fitting end to this credit bubble will be a fast furious decline. It is the "least likely" according to virtually everybody. We have lived through a long period of "least likely" outcomes to both the upside and the downside. We have broken every "upside" record previously set in the financial arenas including debt accumulation regardless of measurement methods. I see no good reason why we don't start breaking records to the downside. In fact it is the only outcome that makes sense to me based on the 20+ year build-up to this point in time. 1929 may still lurk in our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 hey NV 375: the Consumer Bankers Association? is that an oxymoron or what? i love that one - Consumer Banker's Assocaition.. i thought it was called the FED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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