phatbubble Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 the color commentator is white hot. great work. mousey, i couldn't fall asleep for a little while last night because i was laughing out loud about your scenario where the Aunt grows balls and becomes an Uncle. that was just teed up well, or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 O Neil and Lindsay victims of deflation? The economic numbers which are rigged, can?t even hide the reality much longer. 8 weeks of the new bull market and flatline. Debt Inflation is done? 2003? There is nothing but deflation in 2003, at an even faster rate? Plus a WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bubbles Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 And now for more of the same? What are you all whining on and on about? Are you not hypnotized by those wafts of vaporized Lemon 714?s do they need to get out the Orange AS?s or God forbid the Paris 400?s? Oh?you wrecked the car on those - ok here have a seat relax, here?s a garbage bag of nitrous oxide - take another hit off the tank - this stuff is nearly free. Or... well we bought it when we were fat so no worries. Oh you?re up now? and sick of that? Ok how about video?s of precision munitions sailing into Sadum?s private bunkers, - or are those bunkers occupied by one of his 6 doubles? Who cares, were kicking ass and isn?t that the whole point? Isn?t it simply lost confidence in the America? We need to restore and nurture your faith. You appear to be distraught. Hey - look over there - pay no attention to the man behind the yellow curtain and the - thwack - thwack - thwack of that helicopter unloading dollars (ahh... what exactly happened to those post 9/11 government loans to United?) into the slot machine - look here ? there are columns of fire, flashes of light and smoke both deadly and innocuous ? why its ? Raw Power. The way you like it. (Oh honey I love it when you get out the toy?s ? oh and you changed the battery?s too ? how thoughtful) Its just great when we get over with it so quickly. (I think the big down leg will come after Iraq changes hands.) Go to the bubble boys the view is mesmerizing. It all makes sense - the endless stream of redundant disinformation the soothing logic of Larry Kudlow ? its not unemployment growing (or is perpetually understated) it?s the hidden story your not getting, self-employment is growing, (particularly when your unemployment checks stop coming). Besides, Americans generally don't get out much - do we really care if we're increasingly reviled oustside our borders - go get the bastard he's got WMD! (no matter that the American intelligence community has just about never accurately estimated an enemy?s capabilities) What? Are you not satisfied with your 9 second executions and 1 cent a share commissions. You want good fills! I see, well here comes the greatest stockbroker of them all - my new pal Chuck. He's quite a salesman, and he?s no Wall Street Gonif (ahh.. Jew taught me that one) he?s the little guys broker. He?ll put your fears to rest and drag out the last of your coinage. Come on folks the future is wireless and those stocks that pay dividends - you know from companies that have told the truth about their assets and liabilities. Jeeze they swore to it didn't they? Hurry - get in now while they?re still cheap. Volumes too low here ? it feels like we?re going up boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 the color commentator is white hot. ?great work. mousey, i couldn't fall asleep for a little while last night because i was laughing out loud about your scenario where the Aunt grows balls and becomes an Uncle. ?that was just teed up well, or something. Tanks Phat, I'm not really into being quite that harsh but, that particular post was begging for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 The quality of writing on this thread, both Mark's and respondents, has greatly improved since that PC guy quit jerking around. Keep up the good work. Beats any magazine I've ever subscribed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 C'mon people let's start writing coherently, or I'm going to put on my editor in chief's cap and start chopping anything that I can't understand. Remember, I only had a sixth grade education. Make your point so I can understand it. Overly metaphorical, semi-incoherent diatribes are out. One other thing. Racial and ethnic references need to stop, even if you think they are innocuous. Some of them are, some of them aren't, and I have no desire to figure out what is and what isn't all the time. I have no desire to see how far the envelope can be stretched before we cross the line into hate mongering. The eyes of the world are upon you, and especially upon me. I give a huge crap about my reptutation when it comes to this. I want it to stop. We can have fun and make our points without these kinds of references. If that's being overly sensitve and overly PC, then I'm sorry. It's just how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest_Old Habits Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 When will it end? The answer is NEVER. You've said it yourself a 100 times. The black box trading programs built by the MIT grads have taken over. It is a war of computers, one program will always rescue another. Trust was broken quite awhile back, but the computers just keep on trading. Big winners, big losers. Then the losers become winners the following week. All of the old indicators that used to be so reliable are now toast. (although Doc called it perfectly this a.m.) The charts may be saying mild up Monday and early Tuesday, but the down will not be hard. Mark is dead on about the QQQ and SMH, these pigs will be ramped until the first part of January. After that, the guessing begins again in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 LoU - agreed! Mark...I have waited a while to see if anyone decoded the picture of Ali. You were obviously making a statement about the Arms index. It made my PPO rise. Doc - are you allowed to show a woman's VIX on this board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Bradley model indicated turndown date of 11/25 Here is the graph.... coincides with other modeling too... and runs almost parallel with E Wave stuff I adore. This guy is the #1 market timer YTD, and one of only two newsletters to beat the SP 500, over last 1, 3, 5 years... Anyhoo... here is the graph... all my personal indicators point hard down next few weeks, with mild rally monday but it will rollover quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 I agree SG, just read latest EWI. This market is fried. I'm fully loaded. Sleeping well. From what I see in tons of indicators, and I mean tons, the chances of us going back to kiss the neckline again (Monday's SPX 954) are slim to none. Bull/bear debate over. Its OVER people, OVER. The Death March has resumed, the eight week pause is over. I like this rendition myself :grin: http://www.ensignsoftware.com/images/brad.gif Of course, we don't want to become complacent bears around March 2003 depending on how things shape up then, http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm but in the meantime, relax, kickback and enjoy the ride boys and girls, it really doesn't get much better than this. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. The upcoming natural selling forces will massively overwhelm any "xboxers", jammers, year-end tape painting, etc. so don't let that nonsense drive your decisions. If you don't follow and trust your indicators when they speak LOUD and CLEAR to you then you're dead meat b/c next month yet another paranoid excuse or inane blather will surface like the "Super Bowl" theory or whatever to make you a timid bear. Extraneous external events and news are detractors. You can't predict their occurrence nor effect so why bother and in most cases they have little to no net effect on the markets anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Much hoopla today surrounding the double taxation of dividends. I think there are many important points to bring up regarding this. 1. Removing double taxation could hurt tech stocks because they would be pressured in to paying out earnings in cash dividends. This could prevent tech stocks (and other stocks for that matter) from paying with stock and options. After all, why increase the number of outstanding shares when it increases your dividend payouts? 2. Another factor is companies that are in trouble and are paying out a high dividend just to keep the shareholders in the stock. I.E. JPM and GE. GE has 298 billion in debt GE Balance Sheet and JPM has 297 billion in debt JPM Balance Sheet Removing double taxation of dividends on the corporate side does make sense and could help companies like these de-leverage (reduce debt) because they would not need to pay as much in taxes on the money they are paying in dividends to keep the shareholders in the stock. 3. Some anal cysts feel that removing double taxation of dividends will give the market a huge rally. Navellier feels this way. He thinks that people will take money out of bonds and put them in to stocks almost immediately. Navellier Marketmail I think this is an idiotic position. First, many companies have too much debt to start/increase their dividend. Second, an increase in stock price DECREASES the dividend yield. Dividend yield and stock price have a direct relationship. Many of the companies that have high dividend yields only have them that way because no one would want to own the stock due to high debt and risk. What we are hearing is that the Bush Administration may be headed in the direction of eliminating the taxes on dividends on the consumer side, IMHO this will not help corporations at all unless a company has a ton of cash, does not abuse stock options and has little or no debt. Few companies can meet this criteria. The Bush Admin should eliminate the taxes on the corporate side. A bonus would be for taxes to be removed on dividends on the consumer side as well. No matter what happens, we will probably have a rally on the tax reduction hype soon. I do not think it will hold. Also, I expect UAL announcement of Chapter 11 to come out any day not, maybe Sunday. Will the market blow this announcement off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Mark mentioned the recently launched "single stock futures". I am beginning to sound like a stopped clock - but this is 1920s all over again. The parallels between our period today and the 1920s? ..... 6. Disaster-inviting low margin requirements on stock purchases. At the "bucket shops" of the 1920s, you could 'buy' a $100 share for a dollar. That's a margin requirement of only 1%. "A quarter of that dollar was commission, and the rest was the margin. So if the stock fell 75 cents, your margin was wiped out and the dollar was gone.... 'It doesn't take much of a [stock market] reaction to wipe out a margin of only 3/4 of a point..\..The business was tremendously profitable,' wrote Edwin Lefevre in his 1923 classic, 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'.... Now the basic idea is back, albeit under a fancier name. The futures markets want to trade 'single-stock futures,' which...are virtually identical to stocks.... Once they become legal, you will be able to buy single-stock futures by putting up pennies on the dollar, in sharp contrast to the stock market, where you have to put up half the purchase price.... http://www.timesizing.com/1920s.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Correct me if I'm wrong (like I even have to say that ) but, considering how much yada yada there has already been, finally getting a Chapter 11 announcement from UAL on Sunday might actually lift the markets on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 I agree Butt, its nothing but more worthless pieces of paper which respresent more useless paper which represents more useless paper...multiple layers removed from the underlying physical asset. House of cards. One big casino. Indicative of a massive speculative bubble top, still after a 2 1/2 year slide - simply amazing. Wall St strategist normally don't go over 60% allocation to equities, now most are 70%, some even as high as 80%. AAII only 17% bears, NAZ garbage stocks soar 200-300% in two months while high paying dividend and earnings stocks with solid balance sheets went nowhere to down (I analyze 7000 stocks daily, not just the averages) and everyone believes we are embarking on a new bull market. Please! Who's left to buy? Every short has covered, every yo-yo has bought. The bubble lives. Who's got a pin? Oops, never mind the bubble just popped last Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Mousey: you might me right on a UAL rally - but the flow on effects are not good for credit markets. I know a person who currently works with UAL. He has been there forever, although he originally worked for Pan Am. He has been giving me the blow by blow - apparently Delta has been very instumental in the loan denial, and the credit reverberations are going to be significant. Another friend tells me there are 3 major credit disasters in the pipeline. He says the next Enron could be very soon. So keep an eye on the credit markets! Plus, Adam Hamilton has given the green light to short. http://www.zealllc.com/2002/putcall.htm And gold is at $320 and ready to take out Hamilton's $325 Maginot Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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