mdporter Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Goldman's Sack. That big gap from last September is calling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 I guess its too late to short the indexes? What happen to Bob Stinker's call to buy the s&p at 1450? Could Bob and his listeners be wrong? Or does some other magical or critical resistance lie ahead? I think Wndy was saying that we have record shorts. If we are in a protracted bear market record shorts only confirms the reason for record shorts. Therefore it might not be a contrarian indicator? 596336[/snapback] Record put/calls might mean even more underlying longs that hedge their bets with puts rather than directional bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 What happened no friday happy green print? 596343[/snapback] Yeah, but we got one for gold. 596344[/snapback] Wow, that's right. Gold went up despite the liquidation, not very common these days. Maybe it's finally smelling the financial crisis. And gold shlocks held their crap pretty well. Black boxes must be going crazy missing the gold slap down friday and the happy green print. What if "sell off" Friday becomes a pattern in a couple of black boxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Goldman's Sack. That big gap from last September is calling. 596349[/snapback] Sure hope this doesn't have a negative effect on bonuses at the end of the year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 hmmm 596311[/snapback] invested in this short fund last week, I am sure it will be a rough road ahead but hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 What's really freaky is how Wall Street and other folks are still referring to this as a "sub-prime crisis", and continue to point out that "exposure to sub-prime is minimal" bla bla bla.... "Look at bank earnings, they're OK" yada yada yada Almost nobody is calling it for what it is: The end of the biggest credit bubble in history. I'm not saying that spreads are going to blow out 1000bps next week, but to think that the biggest bubble of them all can deflate without serious consequences across the financial board is definitely drinking the kool-aid. 596337[/snapback] Suds, a day will arrive,when: My object all "sublime" I shall achieve in time, To rid the street of its slime, And make the punishment fit the crime, ---the punishment fit the crime ---the punishment for sub-prime And make each broker vent And Unwillingly represent His hanging and swinging bodys movement A source for public merriment. For once and finally, this time We'll make the punishment fit the crime The punishment fit the crime And hang them with ricketty gibbet sub-prime beardrech Aplogies to Gilbert and Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 NYSI flashing a buy signal (in a bull market situation) This one indicates more downside though: So does the infamous CPC ratio and this one has only begun to turn down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 So corrupt and gangrenous are the limbs of our economy that nothing within it can be considered as being uncontaminated--- Last week, or the week before, I forget which, in all innocence, I referred stoolies to a MCQuaries company which I thought was totally involved in infrastructure, a sector of human activity I thought was a shoo-in-- I read about it somewhere and thought it interesting.. Now I find out it's also in some kind of jeapordy....what, I dont exactly know... But it shows goes to tellya what dangers lurk out there;that nothing is certain except how financially lethal anything can be... beardrech The word of the day is opacity----opacity--which rhymes with Audacity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 I have stayed out of the market after selling out of SSO at 1488. I still think that 1375 to 1390 is a very realistic target (my own guess is 1388). I expect a bounce next week though. Monday - 100 to 150 point bounce on Dow, 15-20 on S&P. 1. We ended on the lows, usually get a bounce. 2. Shorts won't want to hold going in to the FOMC meeting 3. FOMC will be buying futures like a mad dog Tuesday - Holding pattern waiting for Fed. Wednesday - FOMC cuts basis points by 25? Or, tells the market that they will do everything in their power to supply liquidity wherever needed? Thursday - Re-substantiation rally 70-100 point bounce on Dow Friday - Reality sets in again. Time to resume the downtrend. This is the best case scenario for the bulls the way I see it. I think that we need to get down to the 1375-1390 range before we can expect a bounce that is worth trading. If the Japanese Yen begins to rally in earnest, say hello the the August 2007 Stock Market Crash. If the market corrects down to 1375 to 1390 and begins to act healthy (meaning it doesn't need the FOMC buying futures all of the time) then it might be time to get back in to chips on the cheap for one last ass blast up before a crash mid next year. I am not sure on this yet. Stocks that I hate like CY, INTC, AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, NVEC, MRVL, IMOS could blast off later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 Wow, I was out of the office most of the day. It looks like its official. The 200-day Nipple Bottom is toast. Checked back in prior years to see if the 200-day was ever taken out with force: Here are the setups: 1997 1998 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 Been patiently holding short the broads, and will continue to do so. It's an insurance policy during a fantastically precarious time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 Everybody is screaming "bottom" or "ovversold". Yeah, the put/calls are going through the roof. But it looks like dynamic hedging is feeding on itself. Whoever is profiteering from being short is piling and pyramiding on, creating even more selling pressure and lower prices. The lower the market goes, the fatter the profits for the bears. Ergo, more money to pile on even more shorts. Swenlin has a great article on this. Market may look like its ready to bounce, but at the same time, its very dangerous, and can go even lower. A lot lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 Wyndsrf, I really don't think the 200 DMA means anything this time around. I think that this market would have ripped right through the 200 dma earlier in the week had the FOMC not been buying futures contracts hand over fist. I think they created an artificial bottom at 1439 earlier in the week. The FOMC thinks they are bigger than the markets, they aren't. However, for the record, I do expect a bounce after we get down near the February lows. How interesting would it be if the FOMC lowered interest rates and FCB's sold their treasuries instead of buying more? The dollar would go down, commodities would jump (90 dollar oil anyone?) Not sure they would do it though, the world is more interdependent now. I am not sure if Bernanke has room to lower rates this time around unless he wants the dollar to drop even more than it already has. But, if things get really bad, be ready for a surprise cut of 25-50 basis points in between FOMC meetings. Remember, Bernanke really is Helicopter Ben. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 Remember those brand new, ugly spec homes 2 doors down from my house? Both sold for over $1 million. Today, two mortgage broker friends of mine told me that within the last 48 hours, the mortgage industry has basically shut down, with the exception of FNM, FRE, and GNMA approved paper. Looks like these guys squeaked their loan in at the last minute. Moving van was there when I got home today. They are moving in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 4, 2007 Report Share Posted August 4, 2007 There are virtually hundreds of spec homes under construction in my neighborhood. Some homes just fenced off for demolition this week. Back in 1990, I told you guys that the RE market here seemed to shut off like a light switch overnight. Suddenly, everything stopped. Sales stopped. Construction projects stopped. "Lots Wanted" signs disappeared. I suspect that now is the time. I will know right away. But of course, the market has already spoken...... 2 months early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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