Silky_Xlax Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Hyper - thanks for the chart that shows DJIA going parabolic to 15000 area. From a valuations point-of-view : Price/Dividend of DJIA is 50 and change. That is, Current dividend yield of DJIA = 1.96% with DJIA at 10,500 Mania low dividend yield (on 1/14/00) = 1.28% So, if DJIA goes parabolic up and reaches its Mania-I low yield, it would handily reach (10,500 * 1.96/1.28) = 16,000 If Mania-II even reaches the depths of valuations of Mania-I, there u have it - DJIA at 16,000. If it exceeds... I recently read Stan Weinstein and he says that one of the reasons he got out of market in Sep-87 was the Price/Dividend of DJIA 40. I guess valuations dont matter anymore. - Silky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 They are saying KEEP THE PRICE OF DEBT HIGH OR WE WILL BUY (MONETIZE) IT. Agreed. But there's a deep contradiction buried there. If the price of debt is kept high while monetizing it, something else must give -- the currency must fall, and price inflation must rise. You can see this in the CRB/bond ratio, a two-factor, amplified inflation indicator. it took a big jump today, and is approaching a 4-year high. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?...,26,9%5D&pref=G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Colonel - CHN is loaded with internet stocks. TDF a better long-term play I think. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 These guys seem to have a good stock of everything.... http://www.golddealer.com/bullionpage.html Nice plug for Kenny Edwards @ CNI Mark - HE DESERVES IT! A few months back he told me to buy the graded $20 St. Gaudins gold coins @ $620 ea. they now sell for $880 ea. Talked to him the other day, he said the next liftoff will be on the MS65 Silver Dollars dates were between 1878 and 1920 I think. They are going for $100 ea. With even the slightest pullback in silver - if we get one- I will take his advice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Wouldn't it be a hoot if today marked the high for the year. One can dream, can't they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 YES.....it would be a hoot...i would laugh my head off,like Mr Burns when he crippled the Irishman,he laughed for 3 days,i would laugh for 364 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Colonel - CHN is loaded with internet stocks. TDF a better long-term play I think. JMHO Thanks, I'll check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 The Doors. Take It As It Comes lyrics Time to live Time to lie Time to laugh Time to die Takes it easy, baby Take it as it comes Don't move too fast And you want your love to last Oh, you've been movin' much too fast Time to walk Time to run Time to aim your arrows At the sun Takes it easy, baby Take it as it comes Don't move too fast And you want your love to last Oh, you've been movin' much too fast Go real slow You like it more and more Take it as it comes Specialize in havin' fun Takes it easy, baby Take it as it comes Don't move too fast And you want your love to last Oh, you've been movin' much too fast Movin' much too fast Movin' much too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Like I said last night, America for me is becoming a really scary place. 'Freedom' is about the last thing that country is about these days. yup, just ask any Native American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Global view of major indexes. Still looks bullish, even with today's candle. But getting very toppy. Let's see what the "rest of the world" does Monday. http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...;bvsp,ifn|C|D20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 End - so was 2003 the first year that the market ever closed up after a down January, or whatever your stat was that had never happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Hyper - thanks for the chart that shows DJIA going parabolic to 15000 area. From a valuations point-of-view : Price/Dividend of DJIA is 50 and change. That is, Current dividend yield of DJIA = 1.96% with DJIA at 10,500 Mania low dividend yield (on 1/14/00) = 1.28% So, if DJIA goes parabolic up and reaches its Mania-I low yield, it would handily reach (10,500 * 1.96/1.28) = 16,000 If Mania-II even reaches the depths of valuations of Mania-I, there u have it - DJIA at 16,000. If it exceeds... I recently read Stan Weinstein and he says that one of the reasons he got out of market in Sep-87 was the Price/Dividend of DJIA 40. I guess valuations dont matter anymore. - Silky It could even get worse than that chart I fabricated...all that matters is the debt creation...If as Bernanke says that they will not make that mistake again then the Fed will have to engineer a crash in long rates in search of volume at some point soon...or you can forget about that chart... When rates are lowered requests by consumers for debt creation from commercial banks increases...when rates are raised requests by consumers for debt creation from commercial banks decreases... Right now according to my charts debt creation is basicly normal...but now normal is straight up but my info only goes up to Feb 03 so only the FED (Should) knows what is going on right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 I recently read Stan Weinstein and he says that one of the reasons he got out of market in Sep-87 was the Price/Dividend of DJIA 40. I guess valuations dont matter anymore. - Silky Good point...and still the finest starter book on trading that I have ever read. Note the cup-handle pattern on the D/P ratio. The chapter on 'extraordinary setups' prompted me to always look for these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Hey whatever became of Yoshaviah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Something about NCEN and the Ten Year Treasury Yield... As I recall, these charts were supposed to be an indicator of something significant...something to do with ARMs, mortgages, the consumer, the economy, the market, FRE, FNM, Derivatives, foreign bond purchases, the future of the speculative universe...etc.: http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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