richmtn Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Call me stupid, but i just don't see a noteworthy bounce coming. I suspect sometime between Wed. and Fri. I know nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 One word -- Sornette. Help me out here, Col., what about Sornette..did he say something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Crapper, Did you short PNRA today. I got filled at 43.40. Looking for 38-39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Wndy, Kry jumped up to close out at 2.80....up .30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoolander Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Connecting the POC (Point of Control) for each day. You can see graphically how different today was compared to recent days, I like the way the POC finally was down from the previous day and how we closed below the POC for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Stoolander - can you explain that chart a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Stoolander - can you explain that chart a bit? You need to read "Mind Over Markets" Dalton. I'm using it to prop up my monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoolander Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Stoolander - can you explain that chart a bit? It's called market profile. It simply charts the range for each half hour (in this case) and stacks the prices throughout the day to the right. In the end you get something that (usually) looks like a normal distribution for each day. The price that sticks out furthest to the right is the price that was traded at most of the day (time not volume). On this chart the black is the opening range, the white the closing range. I don't use the traditional lettering as I don't find it adds anything to my analysis. Here's a better description I'm sure http://www.linnsoft.com/tour/marketprofilechart.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 New York Times possible Sobig victim - Lights out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 this little dollar gambit lately, is bearish as hell for the economy, IMO. Deflationary for the US, bad for US corpse earnings, good for foreign exporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Help me out here, Col., what about Sornette..did he say something? Some are saying today or at least close to it, corresponds with Sornette's turn prediction. Here's the link -- http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/p...ction/index.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 A FABLE- " Craig Barrett kept having this recurring dream-he'd wake up to find Al Greenscum dry humping his leg and saying-Craig youda da man, they ALL look up to you help me save the markets-Raise Guidance". As Craig prepared for his Friday morning golf game he thought to himself (as he pulled on his polyester pants with the white belt) I could do that-y'know and THEN I'd be the MAN. As he laced up his black and white golf shoes (one white one and one black one) he made up his mind and made the CALL. Later in Washington as evening fell-Al Greenscum was met at the door by his wife-who said how'd your day go Al-he retorted "we tried to save the steaming POS market but it only worked for a while"-by the way said AL I've opened a large SHORT position on Intel should make us a lotta dough-crazy bugger who runs the company raised guidance. Mrs. G said Al the big boss is on his way over-Al replied look I need my bath give him some pretzels and turn on the cartoon network-he'll wait" Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Facts of debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking Fact Operating expenses are composed mostly of previously created debt and profits are composed mostly of new debt creation... Is there evidence that profits are poor? Fact Current income is previously created debt and future income is new debt creation... Is there evidence of rising unemployment, significant layoffs, wage cuts? Telltale signs of debt deflation or better yet insufficient debt inflation which is what takes place before debt deflation... Fact Consumers use present income which is previously created debt as a basis for servicing or creating new debt which is future income... On paper once current income is used to service debt then the creation of future income becomes impossible... If your current income is all used up and you can not service or create any new debt then your future income will be eliminated or have to drop... Is there any evidence that this is happening? Fact Although the current accepted propaganda is that the FED and or comercial banks have an infinite potential to create debt out of thin air what is not talked about is that consumers have a finite ability to consume it... Fact The current system has a maximum potential for debt inflation... Fact The signs are in plain sight... rising unemployment, significant layoffs, record bankruptcies, reduced profits the price of wants dropping and the price of needs rising... The signs of maxout are here... Fact Every recession is the beginning of the end of debt inflation Fact The only way to support debt inflation is with greater debt inflation. The only way to combat debt deflation is with debt inflation. Fact For the past 23 years debt inflation has been supported by greater amounts of debt inflation by the methodical lowering of the Federal funds rate on average 83 basis points a year... Fact The Banking system and economy are 100% dependant on debt inflation to function, without debt inflation banks will be bankrupted and the economy will collapse... Fact There is a maximum potential for debt inflation and we have reached it...The federal funds rate has dropped by 550 basis points it was the biggest cut in the shortest period of time in the history of the federal reserve... Fact In order for the system to function for much longer 2 problems which are symbiotic have to be solved... Consumers need an ability to consume an infinite amout of debt and Interest rates have to beable to keep dropping forever past ZERO. Fact In order for the consumer to be able to consume infinite amounts of debt interest rates have to keep dropping forever... Fact That is as impossible... Fact If a miracle does not show up soon a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt is a certianty... Fact Due to the mechanics of the debt backed by debt fractional reserve system a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt is systemic meaning it will happen and there is no way to avoid it... When you decide to use a debt backed by debt fractional reserve system as a basis for the money supply of a nation or the world you have to accept the fact that at some point in the future a hyperdeflationary implosion will take place...It is inevitable... Fact We are far closer to the end of the debt inflationary potential of the system then the beginning. Not yet a fact I suspect in 5-9 months the realization your future is finished will begin to hit home...People will be forced to wake up from their debt inflationary induced stupor... The vast majorty will wake up from a lucid dream to find the inescapable nightmare known as... COLD CRUEL REALITY The best case deal is that they actually do make good on their threats and print money and dump it on street corners... Then tack on maybe 2 more years before day they drove ol' Glory down shows up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 This mornings gap up put me at minus $4750 per SP contract, from monday short entry at 994. I was able to cover at 992.80 this afternoon. This is bad trading and bad timing. At the point of worst losses to final $300 profit per contract works out to about 16 to 1 REVERSE expectancy. Newbies do not do anything this foolish at home............................ This weeks roller coaster just thrilled me to death, so will clear head over weekend and work on re entry level to SHORT.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 A very good day today for me, TE, Summoner and others. Shorted the futures at 1010 and closed with 8 minutes to go for 16 points and change-wowza, also still short the Spoo's and OEX via puts good day there too. I said last night in my view the turn had been made-today it should be evident to all. What happens next is critical-we either bounce at 980 or 85 for one last hurrah (lower high) or go straight down to new lows- I agree with Thor don't look for a bounce on Monday and if you are long other than Gold well good luck to you, you'll need it! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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