Guest ike Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 I make this chart available to the public once every 4-6 months. So, here it is, and the history behind, for whatever is worth, if it is worth anything to anyone! The bar before the last one was for 10-10-02, the last bar is for 11-29-02, in case you can't read it. ........ From 1969 until November of 2000, there was a TV channel here in Southern California (KWHY-22) that was the first one -in 1969- to provide all day stock market and business coverage, in fact it was the first one to use a live ticker on the air. The channel was bought out by Telemundo in November of 2000, and all programming was converted to Spanish, thus eliminating the stock market coverage. Anyway, during 30 years of coverage, station had established a large list of regular guests from all over the country. Our firm, in addition to managing assets for offshore investors- is a research shop. We do all kinds of technical and econometric research, for our own use, as well as, for the use of other institutions. In fact our firm provided around the clock technical analysis for the channel in its last days. In late 1994 we were commissioned to develop a sentiment indicator based upon the market views of the guests who appeared regularly on KWHY. We started out without any pre-conceived ideas, we decided to just collect the data, and let the data tell us what kind of an indicator we could designed (confirming, or, contrarian) For the next three years 1995, 1996 and 1997, we listened, examined and archived, everything that was said by every regular guest. By 1998 we were able to come up with two lists of guests. One was a list with guests who between 1995 to 1997 they were consistently wrong in their market prognostications, (meaning they were wrong over 60% of the time) the other, was a list of guests who in the same period, were consistently right in their market prognostications (meaning they were correct over 60% in their market prognostications) We decided to use the second one, as a confirming indicator, and thus we proceeded to test the indicator over the next two years. The list included some very well known names, such as the late Bill Meehan, Ralph Block, Gerald Appel, Sherman McClellan, Art Hogan, Larry McMillan, Bernie Schaffer, Dick Russell, and Dick Arms among others. The list was originally made up by 38 guests, and it pretty much remained intact until November of 2000. When the program went of the air, we could no longer track the views of all these people. However, I personally knew about two thirds of them, so, we revived the indicator in January of 2001, from input from those who we knew, plus a few others who we are able to track thru other means (internet, newsletters) The current list has input from 49 individuals. However, here is the fascinating part. In late 1999 and early 2000, we observed something that got our attention: until then, the views expressed by all these people were pretty much in tandem, however, between late 1999 and early 2000, those who were older got increasingly bearish, while the younger ones got increasingly bullish! The difference was so noticeable, that we started to track the indicator by age group. We divided them in three groups, 30-45( blue bars) 45-60 (red bars) and over 60 (yellow bars) The two charts above, show NASDAQ at turning points over the past three years, and the sentiment of each group at that point in time. Remarkably, as NASDAQ plunged the older group got more bearish, while the younger group remained bullish, and the group in the middle stayed bullish to neutral. We must caution against making too much of this for the following reasons: a) Both the original list, and the current list, are small (38 and 49 individuals respectively) thus the sample is probably too small to have statistical significance. We never actually asked anybody how old they were! We took a guess, so, there may be some inaccuracies, due to the fact that some could belong to another age group. Given the small size of the sample, it can make difference in the final calculations. Marketviews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 It tells me alot that you did this to begin with. :wink2: Tanks for sharing your great work hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ike Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 For "the end" Thank you for your kind remarks, always. You know "The future ain't what it used to be..." legions of brainwashed morons are praying to the Lord, that it will be otherwise, but we know better, "...you can't petition the Lord with prayer" why? well, it's too late "the Man is at the door... this is the best part of the trip, the part I really like... the Soft Parade has now begun!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 ike-thanks-but stop worrying about the limited nature of your statistical universe- you've filtered out all the untermenschliche innumerate noisebags and gathered those that are fleet of mind--i could walk you through my extended neighborhood asking market opinions of everyone including allof the age cohorts and all you'd get would be a caravan comprised of truckloads full of thoughtless stink--(dont get me wrong i love them all but not for your measured reasons) --getting the best of the best collective opininion is worth its weight in palladium-- keep up the good work--it may wind up saving my ass--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 Ike baby, You are a doors fan. :grin: :grin: The soft parade is one of my favorite songs. And here it is: When I was back there in seminary school There was a person there Who put forth the proposition That you can petition the Lord with prayer Petition the lord with prayer Petition the lord with prayer You cannot petition the lord with prayer! Can you give me sanctuary I must find a place to hide A place for me to hide Can you find me soft asylum I can't make it anymore The Man is at the door Peppermint, miniskirts, chocolate candy Champion sox and a girl named Sandy There's only four ways to get unraveled One is to sleep and the other is travel, da da One is a bandit up in the hills One is to love your neighbor 'till His wife gets home Catacombs Nursery poems Winter women Growing stones Carrying babies To the river Streets and shoes Avenues Leather riders Selling news The monk bought lunch Ha ha, he bought a little Yes, he did Woo! This is the best part of the trip This is the trip, the best part I really like What'd he say? Yeah! Yeah, right! Pretty good, huh Huh! Yeah, I'm proud to be a part of this number Successful hills are here to stay Everything must be this way Gentle streets where people play Welcome to the Soft Parade All our lives we sweat and save Building for a shallow grave Must be something else we say Somehow to defend this place Everything must be this way Everything must be this way, yeah The Soft Parade has now begun Listen to the engines hum People out to have some fun A cobra on my left Leopard on my right, yeah The deer woman in a silk dress Girls with beads around their necks Kiss the hunter of the green vest Who has wrestled before With lions in the night Out of sight! The lights are getting brighter The radio is moaning Calling to the dogs There are still a few animals Left out in the yard But it's getting harder To describe sailors To the underfed Tropic corridor Tropic treasure What got us this far To this mild equator? We need someone or something new Something else to get us through, yeah, c'mon Callin' on the dogs Callin' on the dogs Oh, it's gettin' harder Callin' on the dogs Callin' in the dogs Callin' all the dogs Callin' on the gods You gotta meet me Too late, baby Slay a few animals At the crossroads Too late All in the yard But it's gettin' harder By the crossroads You gotta meet me Oh, we're goin', we're goin great At the edge of town Tropic corridor Tropic treasure Havin' a good time Got to come along What got us this far To this mild equator? Outskirts of the city You and I We need someone new Somethin' new Somethin' else to get us through Better bring your gun Better bring your gun Tropic corridor Tropic treasure We're gonna ride and have some fun When all else fails We can whip the horse's eyes And make them sleep And cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SusanJBear Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Hi Ike, Gee, thanks for reminding of that KWHY newscast! I live in Southern California and some years ago regularly watched that terrific business newscast you spoke of - where else do you get a guy on the news at 6:30 AM talking about support and resistance lines, oscillators, relative strength, and so forth - using a pointer on charts? That show, believe it or not, was my very first introduction to TA. Has any other station picked up that anchor team? It is a pity that newscast has vanished. When I think of that show, it makes me realize how watered down and mushy and worthless the real mainstream financial news is nowadays - basically they just tell people the easy stuff they want to hear, not stuff that might make them really think about how the markets operate. Your "guru indicators" story is also fascinating. I expect it would be very difficult to do an unbiased study like that - if there is a process for selecting guests for the show would that mean that they've already passed through some "filter"? Though I would have expected that the KWHY show to do a better job of guest selection, though, than say, Crapvision. If there were equal weighting in the financial news between bullish and bearish opinions we would be seeing the likes of Richard Russell, David Tice, Bob Prechter, and other bears with the same frequency we see or hear the bulls, and we are nowhere close. In fact, in a recent Elliott Wave Theorist, Prechter described his NY media tour in October and how he was pointed out as "the bear" and how his interviewers would say, "I know another bear!" as if the bears were some sort of alien species. I like your stories. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 The End, thanks for reminding us that the Soft Parade has begun. I changed my signature line in your honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FauxCaster Posted December 10, 2002 Report Share Posted December 10, 2002 Ike, great chart. Sounds like your scientific instinct is razor-sharp. No wonder you're in the top rung. If you've ever looked at hardware benchmark sites that always include a note like 'longer bars are faster', or some quick note to aid those who don't want to think about the details. If you're making the chart available to a large audience, you could put in 'taller bars are more bullish' or something like that in the white space beside the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right. Here I am, stuck in the middle with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Here's another for ya'... I made this my signature (until I get sick of it, anyway): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Passing by the CBNC studio in Fort Lee, N.J. this afternoon, MH espied a pink envelope on the ground. It was addressed to "Maria B., the Feed Angel." Inside on Goldman Sucks stationery was a handwritten poem. It is adapted from lyrics by the Red Hot Chili Peppers, a great L.A. band which arguably has inherited the mantle of The Doors. SUCK YOUR KISS Shoulda been coulda been Woulda been dead If I didn't get the message Goin' to my head I am what I am Most f**kin' borkers don't give a damn Aw baby think you can Feed my peeps, I'll be your man Someone full of fun Do me till I'm well done Little Bo Peep Repo'd from my stun gun Beware take care Most f**kin' bonkers have a cold-ass stare Aw baby please be there Blow your kiss, cut me my share SPIN ME, you can't hurt me Blow your kiss Feed me, please pervert me Stick with this Is she talking BULLISH? ! ! ! Give to me sweet sacred bliss My peeps were made to SUCK YOUR KISS Look at me can't you see All I really wanna be Is free from a bear that hurts me I need relief Do you want me girl To be your thief Aw baby just for you I'll bork anything you want me to P-U-M-P-I-N-G Chicka chicka dee Do me like a banshee Lowbrow is how Swimmin' in the sound Of bow wow wow Aw baby do me now Do me here I do allow SPIN ME, you can't hurt me Blow your kiss Feed me, please pervert me Stick with this Is she talking BULLISH? ! ! ! Give to me sweet sacred bliss My peeps were made to SUCK YOUR KISS adapted from Red Hot Chili Peppers, "Suck My Kiss," on Blood Sugar Sex Magik, 1991, and Off the Map live convert DVD, 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getsoutalive Posted December 12, 2002 Report Share Posted December 12, 2002 Ike, Thanks for sharing a most inciteful study. This place is too much. Had to join the sig party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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