Guest Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Gold Screaming.. $376.20 ...so far...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Below fair value, 1:30 a.m. eastern time: SPX -6.17 Nasdaq -4.00 But we've seen this before all too many times -- only to have it reverse up big by the morning. See ya then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Maybe this is what is going on... Reality setting in that we need to attack. Drudge Report Al Qaeda is planning a mass-casualty attack to rival September 11, but preparations have been disrupted by arrests during the past several months, according to U.S. intelligence officials, the WASHINGTON TIMES is reporting in Tuesday editions. MORE/// Intelligence reports also stated any major attack is likely to be preceded by smaller-scale strikes -- including assassinations of prominent people in the U.S.... GERTZ: Arrests of al Qaeda terrorists disrupt plans for massive attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Did TE just quit? What the hell happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Maybe he just needs a break. Being so easily peaved by traders who play the ST and IT wiggles rather than 100% short to zero is a sign of stress. Were he in a more relaxed state, I'm sure it would not bother him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Appropriate name: The End Subject: WELFARE OFFICE > A young man walked into the local welfare office, marched straight up to the counter and said, "Hi, I hate drawing welfare. I would really rather find a job. The man behind the counter replied, "Your timing is amazing. We've just got a listing from a very wealthy man who wants a chauffeur/bodyguard for his nympho daughter. You'll have to drive around in a big black Mercedes, but the suits, shirts, and ties are provided. Because of the long hours of this job, meals will also be provided and you will also be required to escort the young lady on her overseas holidays. The salary package is $200,000 a year.". The young man said, "You're bullshitting me, man!" The man behind the counter said, "Well, you started it!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 It's "peeved", SNOT "PEAved" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 up late again wid my bidness futures pop rite at 3am same shit/different day -pile and Stephen king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 ROCKET TRADE OF THE DAY I suggest a quick call option play on Alliant Techsystems - it is a big contractor for the space shuttle. It fell 12 % yesterday on shuttle concerns. These sought of panic sells are usually overdone and the stock price recovers over the next 1-2 months. In other a words nice high probability trade. Taking the oposite side to company specific panic sells is a graet way to make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 BITING THE COBRA As you know the current cobra which is transfixing the market is the start date of the War with Iraq. It seems that it will be any day now. Many think it will be a re play of 1991 with a nice big rally on the invasion day. I dont think so. Why????? Because too many people are thinking the same thing. I have found that when too many peolpe anticipate a market reaction event that reaction becomes very unlikey to actually happen - and conversely the opposite reaction becomes more likely. THE REALLY SMART MONEY WILL SHORT THIS COBRA!!!!! Why - because the smart money knows that too many investors will try to front run/anticipate the start of the war- get nervous and get out to preserve whatever puny profits they have made. The subsequent selling pressure will drive the markets lower. Which makes all you short stoolies siting pretty I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Jimbo -thx for the heads-up. I was thinking about a Lockheed/BA play since there may be more upside with these companies due to Warbucks. Crapvision was saying the Alliant contract was cost plus; if there is a significant re-design issue, it might be a really good "play". I would not want to buy it quite yet, though. They might find a "Made in China" component label on a piece of wreckage here in Texas. If so, then all bets are off, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Midnite: Thanks for the detailed response We do seem to be in a sideways phase. That creates a very unpleasant nervous feeling in everyone who is short. The impulse to cover gets stronger by the day. And I can see some evidence of a bit of rounding bottom, and some accumulation and other possible "rally" signals too. But I also see that todays volume was anemic. And the A/D line on the Naz favored the decliners, and todays candlestick is one of indecision. I think a lot of people are trying to front run a war rally which may not happen. I also think the dollar was over due for a corrective bounce and it had one.It's resumption of its' fall should help equities to fall also. And of course the POG held up all day even during this mornings rallying. That was a tell. I think we are all correct, and we are all starting to get that weird , paranoid, uh oh what was in that Kool-Aide kinda vibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Austrian economist take on data... Worse Than You Think by Frank Shostak [Posted February 4, 2003] The latest economic data indicate that the prospects for a sustained economic recovery have been further delayed. The low interest rate policy of the Fed remains the major factor behind this deterioration. Last Wednesday the Fed announced that it would keep the federal funds rate target unchanged at 1.25%?at a 41-year low. Also, to encourage consumers and businesses to spend more, President George Bush proposed a $670 billion tax cut plan. The underlying view that continues to motivate policy makers is that what drives the economy is demand for goods and services. However, it is overlooked that increases in demand as such cannot grow the economy. What is necessary for economic expansion is growth in saved resources that form the basis of investible capital. It is the state of this pool of real funding that dictates the rate of increase in the production of goods and services. Without the availability of real funding, irrespective of how strong demand is, no economic growth can emerge. More here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Can?t post my charts from my computer. If you want, try sending them to me ([email protected]) and I'll post them for you. Regarding the rest of your post... Well, I claim to be a technician - but I can't make any sense of it - it sounds like gobbledegook to me. One problem might be related to the fact that I am not a native English speaker. Is your case the same? Maybe that's why I fail to understand most of what you're saying... I can tell you my charts use artificial intelligence and measure 200 + parameters. What kind of AI? A rule-based expert system? Neural networks? Something else? I've worked more than a year in this field (building expert systems) before I got into computer viruses. If it's an ES, it ought to be able to explain why it has made a particular recommendation. If it's an NN, it's a mistake to give it 200+ parameters - you will overtrain it and its predictions will be unreliable. Usually 3-5 inputs and maximum 2 levels of neurons is sufficient; anything more is overkill. Volume accumulation percentage is increasing How do you measure that? I've never heard of such an indicator. and the 21 day stochastic has moved above the 20% line. No, it has not: In fact, it is still falling. Or do you use some other numbers for the other two parameters of the stochastic? Which ones? In a downtrending market, this is taken as a strong bullish signal that could be followed by an upward price movement. Nonsense, if you pardon my French. The stochastic rising from Dover Sole levels (which it isn't even doing, according to the above chart) is a Buy signal which is reliable only in range-bound and uptrending markets. In downtrends it can be very dangerous to follow it. The stochastic can easily reverse in mid-way and head back towards the Dover Sole zone. Analysis of the rate of change of the exponentially smoothed average price suggests that the current downtrending market is forming a cycle bottom. WHAT?! Are you taking a ROC of an EMA? Why?! To measure the slope of that EMA? What periods do you use for the EMA and for the ROC? Which cycle is it supposed to be a proxy of? The only major cycle that is approaching a low is the 6-7 week cycle. The 17-day ROC (with a 29-day MA) can be used as a proxy for it, if I understand Doc's writings correctly. But the 10-13 week cycle (approximated with a 29-day ROC and a 72-day MA of it) has recently topped and should keep a lid on the smaller cycles: This is a strong bullish signal that is usually followed by a movement to the upside. I fail to see it, sorry. The new high/new low indicator has reversed to the upside. This is a reliable bullish signal that is often followed by an upward movement in prices. WHAT?! The ratio between the new 52-week highs and new 50-week lows is suitable only for catching tops; not bottoms, as explained in this article in my forum. Right now it is neutral at best: The price has reversed off the 21-day low indicator and has a closing price in the upper half of the price bar. What the heck is this supposed to mean?! What is a "21-day low indicator"? The price ends in the upper half of the daily bar about half of the time; it isn't anything of significance... Or do you mean something else? Price target never hit the 61.8 line and now has passed the 50% line with a close above it. Price of what? NASDAQ? SPX? Something else?? Between which low and which high are these retracements? Positive divergence in the obv suggesting money moving in. What positive divergence?! The OBV is making lower lows and lower highs - just like the price: Positive volume is trending higher and negative volume downtrend has stopped. Where do you see this stuff?!?!?! I see no meaningful trend in sight, except the usual short-term oscillations... Trendchannel is turning up signaling downtrend has stopped or expect sideways or higher price movement. What trendchannel? How do you draw it? Chart, please! I don't see any trend channel signalling anything like that on the COMPX. Cci has turned up signaling sideways to higher price action. No, it has not! Chart: Positive divergence in the rsi. Where?! What period RSI? On which issue or index?! All I see is a 14-day RSI making lower lows and lower highs - just like the price: Split volume moving average showing positive divergence indicating upward price movement. What the heck is "split volume moving average"?! I think this is sufficient confirmations in my book. I think I don't understand 60% of what you are saying, am probably misunderstanding another 30%, and the rest is wrong. Please clarify what you mean exactly and illustrate it with charts, if you want to be understood. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiddMarket Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Bontchev- I hope I never have to defend a doctoral dissertation in front of you. Maybe Merciless will let you use his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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