Weekly Signals

[Abby Justa Colon]

With such a wild roller coaster ride during the week, you would expect more of a move than up .37 %.

Not much change in the weekly. Sto still pointing down, LT & ST MACD histos still creeping up. Note the signal lines on the ST MACD histo look to want to cross. Signal line also showing some positive divergence.

26 week ema still pointing down. Big air still present.

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Now thats what I call a wild ride! Big daily swings affecting the weekly to the tune of 2.23% to the upside.

Index starting to work on the "big air" gaps that we spoke of in the past few weeks. Not a big surprise there. Note that most of the indicators have started to turn up with a little more vigor. Sto looks to break that downtrend line from last fall...this week should tell. ST MACD histo went positive on the week and had a signal line crossover. 26 week ema still pointing down, but the shorter 4 week ema turned up for the first time this year.

This bear is not over, but you have to expect rallies within a bear market....and they can drag on, so time will tell.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Both these point to some kind of bounce sooner rather than later.

Daily update....

Bounce was the ticket last week....CMO 3-day starting to form one of those squeezing patterns that usually produce a sizable move. 12-day still creeping up, actually went positive and is still right at the 0 line.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Note that most of the indicators have started to turn up with a little more vigor. Sto looks to break that downtrend line from last fall...this week should tell. ST MACD histo went positive on the week and had a signal line crossover. 26 week ema still pointing down, but the shorter 4 week ema turned up for the first time this year.

This bear is not over, but you have to expect rallies within a bear market....and they can drag on, so time will tell.

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Once again, not much of a final change for the index over the course of the week. Sto broke that long downtrend from last fall and started to head up. ST and LT MACD histos still heading up. 26 week ema still pointing down, while the 4 week still climbing. Weak bear market countertrend rally in progress. Next week we have end of the month and the kick-off of late tax filers IRA funding for the next two weeks.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily update....

Bounce was the ticket last week....CMO 3-day starting to form one of those squeezing patterns that usually produce a sizable move. 12-day still creeping up, actually went positive and is still right at the 0 line.

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Had to use another chart service as Doc's is in limbo again.

 

Daily chart: 11/34 crossover was denied late in week. CMO 12-day popped above the 0 line, but is struggling to hang in positive terrritory. 3-day tagged the profit zone of -100. Volume was light last week even with Monday's pop. Being cautious here as the January lows were tested and volume remains weak.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Weekly update:

 

What a week for the b-ull camp. Up an impressive 5.5%. It should not have come as a surprise if you have been following the bear market this year. We talked about the "big air" gaps in the moving averages several times in the past weeks and the counter trend rallies in bear markets. So where does that leave us now??/

The Sto turned up above the 50 line , ST and LT MACD histos still moving up. LT MACD

waiting for signal line crossover. These indicators are all showing the effects of a strong move off the tested lows. Note how the "big air" gaps in the 4 week ema and the 20 and 26 week ema has turned to "small air" gaps. Also note how the all important 26 week ema has turned flat.

During the last bear market the 26 week ema never really turned up by the close of the week until the bear was over in the spring of '03. The 4 week slightly crossed the 20 week twice but retreated fairly quickly. We don't know if history will repeat, but until the 26 week turns up with authority (weekly close pointing) up we shall still treat this as a bear market counter trend rally and look for shorting opportunities on the daily charts.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily update....Doc's chart service is redirecting the link so I can't use it. The other site I usually use is not updating past 4/2. I will try to update the CMO chart soon. In the meantime, I will post another chart of the Q's.

 

Heres one of my old simple favorites ....the 13/50/200 ema cross. Kind of has the same feel as the weekly..... looks bullish on the surface, but you have to keep your eye on the 200 ema. During the last bear, prices would tag the 200 and retreat. It wasn't until the spring of '03 until prices stayed above, and the 13/50 crossed over the 200. Unless this time is different, we are less than 1.00 away from the 200 right now on the Q's..

[Abby Justa Colon]

We don't know if history will repeat, but until the 26 week turns up with authority (weekly close pointing) up we shall still treat this as a bear market counter trend rally and look for shorting opportunities on the daily charts.

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Yep, looks like that was the case in the above quote....just another bear market rally. We have to respect the weekly.

Nice week for the bears...down 3.60% for the week.

ST MACD histo and signal line moved down.

LT MACD histo inched up but its signal line cross was rejected for now. We are not too concerned with the signal line crossover of the LT as it will crossover in bear markets during countertrend rallies. What we need to focus on is the slope of the histo which is still headed up. That points to more possible swup (sideways up) conditions ahead.

The all important 26 week ema turned back down slightly while the 4 week went flat.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily Update:

 

Doc's chart service is back up..

 

CMO 12-day took a nose dive but managed to stay "in the green" for the week.

CMO 3-day gave us a good entry point for a short, but had us take profits a tad too early.

11/34 cross still positive from the previous weeks crossover.

Volume has really slacked off compared to the big volume we saw in January.

Although the bears had a good week and we are still in a bear market, we need to respect the 12-day CMO and the 11/34 crossover. We could be in a trading range for some time so we need to look for over-bought countertrend rallies (like we just had) to pick up short positions.

[Abby Justa Colon]

We are not too concerned with the signal line crossover of the LT as it will crossover in bear markets during countertrend rallies. What we need to focus on is the slope of the histo which is still headed up. That points to more possible swup (sideways up) conditions ahead.

The all important 26 week ema turned back down slightly while the 4 week went flat.

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Much more than a swup...up an impressive 5.65% during OPEX week.

Sto entering over-bought zone.

LT MACD histo still heading up, signal line crossover this past week...still not real concerned with that.

ST MACD histo stalled out.

"Big air" syndrome is almost completely gone.

Most importantly, the 26 week ema started to turn up (ever so slightly). During the last bear, we had only 2 weeks that had a blip up. I still don't think the bear market is done especially with a breakout such as Fridays on so light of volume. But this leaves us the possibility of looking for long entries if the 26 week ema stays up. We will have to watch the ema as it must stay upward on pullbacks in order to go long, otherwise we will look for short entries.

The next two weeks coming up will be critical.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Although the bears had a good week and we are still in a bear market, we need to respect the 12-day CMO and the 11/34 crossover.

11/34 still in bull mode. 3 day CMO over-bought. 12 day showing some negative divergence...a higher price but lower indicator reading.

Volume still on the low side for what many anal cysts are calling the next leg up.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Most importantly, the 26 week ema started to turn up (ever so slightly). During the last bear, we had only 2 weeks that had a blip up. I still don't think the bear market is done especially with a breakout such as Fridays on so light of volume. But this leaves us the possibility of looking for long entries if the 26 week ema stays up. We will have to watch the ema as it must stay upward on pullbacks in order to go long, otherwise we will look for short entries.

The next two weeks coming up will be critical.

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Not much to all the swings this week...up a paltry .96%.

 

The weekly is at the opposite extreme of a few weeks ago. Where it looked dismal now shows signs that it wants to power forward. Overall the big picture is still bearish, but that could all change if we keep heading sideways up.

The Sto entered into the over-bought range (above 80). The LT MACD histo grind higher with its signal line still in the positive crossover mode. ST MACD histo stayed flat this past week.

The all important 26 week ema turned up. Note the crossover of the 4-week ema (green line). During the last bear the 4 week crossed over slightly only twice.

 

We are at the point if this market is to stay in a bear trend it needs to do so now by turning down.

As long as the 26 week points up we will need to change our stance and buy the pullbacks. If it falls from here (and the 26 week ema turns down) we will sell the rallies.

We could list 101 reasons why this market should head lower but until it does we must follow one of Jesse Livermores famous sayings of "don't fight the tape".

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily update:

Once again Doc's chart service link at the top left corner is down. I guess ya get what you pay for.

On the daily the 3-day CMO bounced off the 0 line and turned up, generally a pretty b-ullish pattern. 12-day still well above the 0 line. Added a Stochastic overlay to the top of the chart. It had a crossover in over-bought territory Friday, but it can remain in in the +80 zone for some time if this truly is a trend change. Note the volume on the move off the March lows. Similar lower volume and lower volatility accompanied the turn up in '03.

[Bungster]

Daily update:

Once again Doc's chart service link at the top left corner is down. I guess ya get what you pay for. 

On the daily the 3-day CMO bounced off the 0 line and turned up, generally a pretty b-ullish pattern. 12-day still well above the 0 line. Added a Stochastic overlay to the top of the chart. It had a crossover in over-bought territory Friday, but it can remain in in the +80 zone for some time if this truly is a trend change. Note the volume on the move off the March lows. Similar lower volume and lower volatility accompanied the turn up in '03.

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Just checking in....I haven't visited LOB in some time....Keep up the good work Abby!

[Abby Justa Colon]

Just checking in....I haven't visited LOB in some time....Keep up the good work Abby! 

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Thanks, Bung...

I will have to keep it brief this week....

 

Weekly: Chalk up another winning week for the bulls. Except for the Sto in over-bought zone, the chart looks pretty strong here. Short -term MACD is entering the "twilight zone" of +100 on the histogram scale.

 

Heres a strange tidbit: during the last bear market, the ST MACD histo would tag +100 to even +200, but during the bull market that followed (March '03-Nov.'07) it could hardly hit +50. Not sure if that reflects short covering or what, but it is showing up again and is worth watching....for now, even if you aren't sold on the Benny B. recovery, you still have to respect the charts...and they are pointing up for now.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily showing a negative divergence between price and the CMO-3 day....that is very short term stuff suggesting a possible mild pullback. Volume still on the lighter side.

Could be a saucer bottom taking place. If so, look for the break at the dark solid line just below 53. Need volume on that break though.