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For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

 

Here's his YTD track record. ?Up about 300% so far this year:

 

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php

Tomorrow is 4th of July so here's a little present B)

 

Tom O-Brien is:

 

Long:

 

GFI (Goldfields) at $11.85 or better. The first price point is $13.00.

 

HMY (Harmony Gold) at $13.80 or better. The first price point is $16.15.

 

Short:

 

LOW (Lowe?s) at $45.20 or better. It wants to retest the $38.20 mark.

 

IBM at $84.10 or better. It wants to trade down to the $79.00 mark.

 

Option Trading

 

July 50 puts on Low (LOWSJ) at $5.00 or better. It wants to trade down to the $38.00.

 

July 90 puts (IBMSR) on IBM at $6.70 or better. It wants to trade down to the $79.00 mark.

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If the consumers are maxed out but need more borrowing to pay the compound interest

 

They can't even pay back the principal, let alone the compound interest.

 

The key is the debt sponge consumer, when they are full they will be wrung out... some will be recycled and some will be thrown out. thats the ugly part that is coming very soon...

 

Consumer debt is likely already maxed out. What isn't maxed out is corporate and government debt. Corporate debt has to be repaid or dissolved through bankruptcy and thus has real limits. Of course there's always the option of government bailout/covert nationalization of industry. As for government debt . . . as long as the Fed is able to buy it, there is no theoretical limit. There may be well-placed doubts about the governent's ability to stimulate productive economic activity through deficit spending, but we should not doubt that the government can dole out the dough, and it doesn't need helicopters or dump trucks to do it. It can fund social programs, build up national defense & domestic "security," create public works projects, bail out bankrupt companies & states, etc. All those activities either create or save jobs. The Fed can feed it the money -- created out of thin air in return for worthless IOUs -- and will ultimately have to because no one of sound mind is going to buy those notes.

 

What that leads to, however, is basically a centralized command-and-control economy. The government (i.e. those who control the government) decides what gets produced and how it gets allocated. Sound familiar?

 

When the debt sponges soak up all they can, thats it, game over... this process has been going on for 23 years...  Either a miracle will show up or it won't...

 

Some hope for the second coming . . .

 

Some look to the stars . . .

 

Some look at history and conclude that it's deja vu all over again: the rise and predictable fall of another civilization. Generally, though, it takes quite a bit longer than 25 years to fall from the apex of world power to absolute ruin. The U. S. stills carries the biggest military sticks, by far, and with that power comes the possibility of stretching things out a ways. We may have an Argentinian-like overspending habit, but our options for maintaining that habit seem to be more open-ended IMHO. We'll still die from the addiction, but not without first sucking the life out of others.

 

Hyper, if you still hold to the 7-11 month death spiral, I would appreciate a point-on-point rebuttal instead of another run through the fractional reserve banking/inflate or die scenario. I'd just like to know why you think the reigning superstructure of our society won't be propped up beyond that time frame by the "unconventional means" mentioned above .

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For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

 

Here's his YTD track record. Up about 300% so far this year:

 

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php

He isn't bad, but he is not that good.

 

You cannot add percentages together, ie down 47% in one month followed by 47% in another is not 0.

 

Also assumes you invest equal amount in stock and index trades.

 

Assuming you equal weight all trades (split an account across trade), I get a quick 38% on the year, likely less unless you are doing something like buying 10k of calls and equity (not likely). Major blow was the one month he had a 47% loss. That does not turn a 219% to 171%, that wipes out half the account.

 

Good trader though, even better marketer.

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M2M poll question: in which fiscal year will the US Federal Gubbamint run it's very first $1 Trillion dollar budget deficit?:

 

2004?

2005?

2006?

other year?

never?

 

and why...........my money is on 2004.....tax revenues will be through the floor (and through the basement and about 10 feet underground) by then. Still trying to figure out who's going to buy all the new Treasury toilet paper, and at what interest rates.

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For TomO'Brien Skeptics:

 

Here's his YTD track record.  Up about 300% so far this year:

 

http://www.tfnn.com/tiger_tracks.php

He isn't bad, but he is not that good.

 

You cannot add percentages together, ie down 47% in one month followed by 47% in another is not 0.

 

Also assumes you invest equal amount in stock and index trades.

 

Assuming you equal weight all trades (split an account across trade), I get a quick 38% on the year, likely less unless you are doing something like buying 10k of calls and equity (not likely). Major blow was the one month he had a 47% loss. That does not turn a 219% to 171%, that wipes out half the account.

 

Good trader though, even better marketer.

Anyone that could make 300% on their investments year after year, ie., geometric growth, would end up owning the entire market . . and the rest of the world.

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M2M poll question: in which fiscal year will the US Federal Gubbamint run it's very first $1 Trillion dollar budget deficit?:

 

2004?

2005?

2006?

other year?

never?

 

and why...........my money is on 2004.....tax revenues will be through the floor (and through the basement and about 10 feet underground) by then. Still trying to figure out who's going to buy all the new Treasury toilet paper, and at what interest rates.

2004

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They can't even pay back the principal, let alone the compound interest.

 

 

 

Consumer debt is likely already maxed out. What isn't maxed out is corporate and government debt. Corporate debt has to be repaid or dissolved through bankruptcy and thus has real limits. Of course there's always the option of government bailout/covert nationalization of industry. As for government debt . . . as long as the Fed is able to buy it, there is no theoretical limit. There may be well-placed doubts about the governent's ability to stimulate productive economic activity through deficit spending, but we should not doubt that the government can dole out the dough, and it doesn't need helicopters or dump trucks to do it. It can fund social programs, build up national defense & domestic "security," create public works projects, bail out bankrupt companies & states, etc. All those activities either create or save jobs. The Fed can feed it the money -- created out of thin air in return for worthless IOUs -- and will ultimately have to because no one of sound mind is going to buy those notes.

 

What that leads to, however, is basically a centralized command-and-control economy. The government (i.e. those who control the government) decides what gets produced and how it gets allocated. Sound familiar?

 

 

 

Some hope for the second coming . . .

 

Some look to the stars . . .

 

Some look at history and conclude that it's deja vu all over again: the rise and predictable fall of another civilization. Generally, though, it takes quite a bit longer than 25 years to fall from the apex of world power to absolute ruin. The U. S. stills carries the biggest military sticks, by far, and with that power comes the possibility of stretching things out a ways. We may have an Argentinian-like overspending habit, but our options for maintaining that habit seem to be more open-ended IMHO. We'll still die from the addiction, but not without first sucking the life out of others.

 

Hyper, if you still hold to the 7-11 month death spiral, I would appreciate a point-on-point rebuttal instead of another run through the fractional reserve banking/inflate or die scenario. I'd just like to know why you think the reigning superstructure of our society won't be propped up beyond that time frame by the "unconventional means" mentioned above .

...and what you also get is a worthless currency...and since ours already contains zero precious metals...well....let's say collapse is already "enabled" and could occur at any time once sufficient confident sentiment is lost.

 

I'm halfway through Richard Duncan's book The Dollar Crisis...very neat clean and concise, well stocked with data tables and graphs....I really wish this book would have been available when I first started my "quest" of bearishness. It's all neatly documented in the book. Doug Noland's and Stephen Roach's analysis will mean that much more to me now that I have Duncan's framework on which to view it. Duncan helped me see just how f'd up the world monetary system (Dollar reserve system) is and has been for the last 30 years, from the highest macro-level perch.

 

Anyway, Duncan sees it like you do Dick BUTTkus....he thinks that US Government deficit spending could keep the US economy out of depression by making up enough of the difference from the collapse of the consumer and business spending. Emphasis on "could". He acknowledges that there is a boundary to the effectiveness of government deficit spending, and that the US might get there pretty fast. It is definitely a card that will be played, and we need to be aware of it.

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Well, ass nice ass it would b to have Hyper's blow-by-blow, it may SNOT b necessary.

 

Why?

 

Well, cuz rising rates and/or increasing recession may trigger the DERIVATIVE debacle.

 

Who SEZSEW?

 

Why the ONE AND ONLY, the ORIGINAL DR GLOOM hisself Henry the K assin Kaufman, economista supremo

 

What ISNOT only breathtaking is the extent of the leveraging butt(_)_) its inherent instability.

 

We only need to move PARTIALLY in Hyper's direction to potentially trigger cascading catcysmic events whose origins and dimensions we dimly, if at all, perceive now.

 

And HRFF guesses that is what is going to happen. It will be some Sigma 10 like afFUR, roaring in out of the wild blue yonder just like those two deadly aircraft on 9-11 when skies appear sunniest.

 

Wyndy's fretting SNOTwithstanding

 

Which is why HRFF hASS remained and will remain short. He didn't larn hisself a thaaaang boud MURPHY'S lawr in lawr skool, 'cept at exam time, of course! lolol. BUTT(_)_) he has great faith in it now. It's ONE law this conservative SUPREME COURT cannot void/vacate. And Congress did a whole lot to make sure it comes to pASS.

 

.

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