baby_bear Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Great question on the source of this rising income. It sure stumps me also, particularly as stated above, when income tax receipts are falling. Those tax receipt numbers to me are one of the purest measures of how the economy is doing. (There now will be ongoing drops in tax receipts, federal wise, as the tax cuts phase in but I don't think that is significant to the drops seen over the last year or so) It's funny as stumped as I am about these ever rising income numbers I have not thought much about how it is possible, or how such numbers can be fudged. One thing is certain. Those tax receipt numbers can't be massaged. I lean towards hanky panky with the numbers on income. Maybe Greeny is sneeking a few extra tens of billion into the bank accounts of his freinds every month, just to be a nice guy. Over and above simply cooking the books which seems to be the rule rather than the exception these days, my guess is related to the tax revenue falling, i.e. the new tax cuts. It is large amounts going into the largest pockets in the country, so their income is definitely on the rise. And, to paraphrase a thought I've read on other websites, when Bill Gates goes to McDonalds, the average personal income of the inhabitants rises by some huge amount (can't remember the figure given). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Wndy and Bud...Lately, my personal favorite is the E-Trade Financial commercial...the one where the appraiser comes to inspect the house.... Homeowners:Did you find any problems? Appraiser: No, everything looks just fine. There is one problem though... Homeowners:Oh?....termites...or carpenter ants? Appraiser: No, the house is fine... Homeowners: What is it? Appraiser: Bankers!.....and they can cost ya! ....cut to the scene where the Appraiser opens the basement door and turns the light on...only to see a large cluster of bankers gathered at the foot of the stairs...all scurrying frantically like cockroaches to get out of each others way as they flee from the light and discovery... All I visualize is Hyper's posts about the importance of ever-increasing debt... ...and there it is in vivid techniclor on Crapvision....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Wow, this market has no support underneath. Most of the bears I've noticed have given up shorting and went to PMs. The bulls are already fully loaded. http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=297387 As Bearman said, this is what is below current price: LOB! :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudFox Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Where I disagree, is in your equal mistrust of gold. It is the ultimate hedge against a failing financial system and a terminal and impotent government. While gold is not something to be horded, it is your currency of last resort, long afer the Fed has run out of magic spells. It will soon serve its ultimate purpose and I would implore you to understand it's important roll in the later chapters of your doomsday scenario. There is hope. BudFox - you don't advise private ownership of gold in these times? By hording, I mean the accumulation of gold over the long term as an ultimate store of wealth. Throughout history, this obsession has been the cause of many a personal and societal financial ruin. The true value of gold is in its evolution as the de facto hedge against the inevitable devaluation of a paper currency. Governments seem fatally predestined to choose discretionary management of currency over a fixed exchange. Yet inflationary pressures seem an equally inevitable consequence of running a governement. The US dollar is the twentieth century's version of an historical theme. The dollar, just as other widely held currencies of the past, has been hailed as the ultimate measure of wealth during peaceful and prosperious times. But once the dollar is tested and it's value compromised, that faith in the currency is lost. No currency can survive forever. The US Dollar hegemony will soon be tested. Gold will once again be there as the ultimate flight to safety. But this too shall pass. I recommend one read "The Power of Gold" by Peter Bernstein for a better appreciation for the use and misuse of gold throughout history. not to be an idjit or anything, but do you advise against private ownership of physical gold? Private ownership of physical gold. Unequivocally, YES! But not forever, not during good times. That would be hording! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 isnt that a bullish wedge? I never did learn anything about wedges and flags, are they important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 I find patterns to be a waste of time. 50/50 odds of getting it right. Keep it simple, trend is down, when in doubt expect a bearish resolution. Open up the hood and see what's inside. http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_brdth.HTM Ouch, that's gonna hurt soon Trends are much more likely to continue than reverse. Leverage them and grow rich. Stop wasting time always looking for reversal turning points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudFox Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 as an aside, I am just finishing up Peter Berstein's Against the Gods....and I'm pretty disappointed. He sounds like Greenspan on derivatives, but all along never mentions the underlying monetary system. I struggle to give any creedence to the idea that derivative financial instruments in the modern sense are the greatest thing since sliced bread when a closer look at the monetary unit of account might reveal the source of a big chunk of the uncertainty that calls for the use of the derivatives in the first place. How can you ignore such a thing? ".....Many catastrophic errors of judgement are thus either avoided, or else their consequences are muted." -Bernstein I too was disappointed in this book. He clearly does not understand the "ticking timebomb" of today's derivatives markets. But I still stand by my recommendation of his other book, The Power of Gold. Anyone expecting a call for a return to the 100% gold system, fractional gold system, bimetalism, or any other variation thereof, will be disappointed in Bernstein's conclusions. It's a fascinating history, nonetheless, of an enduring obsession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 J6P was buying KM all the way into BK, and for a long time after BK. Joe didn't sell, but it didn't stop the shares from dropping incredibly far in price and eventually being cancelled. Joe has been taking refi money to buy stocks, he may now have to sell stocks to make mortgage payments. Regardless of what Joe does, however, I think the big money in America and abroad will sell the stocks down to fair value and lower. If Doc is right and we follow Japan's model, it could take a few years before new lows are hit and many years before the market bottoms. That's fine with me, I'm a patient man. And lots of good trading for traders, both long and short, in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Plan for the week...expect run up to 985-995, which I will short in a big way if the hourlies suggest we rollover there, tight stop at 1004. Expect a pop and drop over next two weeks remembering its scam week. I agree and have basically the same plan. I'll short 995-1004 with everything including the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supercolonblow Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 I felt stupid for missing the last uptrend! I will not miss this downtrend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sassafras Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 3 insurers quietly end a brokerage policy It has been a wonderful business for insurers: tens of million of dollars in premiums collected over 30 years, and not a single claim paid. . So why, suddenly, do the insurers want no part of it? . The business is writing what is known as excess SIPC coverage, which American brokerage houses buy to protect their clients' accounts against the possibility that the brokerage will go bankrupt and that the clients' assets will go missing. The insurance kicks in only after all other ways to make the customers whole have been exhausted, including the coverage of up to $500,000 per investor provided by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, an industrywide pool somewhat like deposit insurance at banks. . But the three insurers who offer the policies - the Travelers Property Casualty, American International Group and Radian Asset Assurance - say they are getting out of the business, leaving Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab and other brokerage houses scrambling to find coverage to reassure their wealthiest clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 J6P was buying KM all the way into BK, and for a long time after BK. Joe didn't sell, but it didn't stop the shares from dropping incredibly far in price and eventually being cancelled. Joe has been taking refi money to buy stocks, he may now have to sell stocks to make mortgage payments. Regardless of what Joe does, however, I think the big money in America and abroad will sell the stocks down to fair value and lower. If Doc is right and we follow Japan's model, it could take a few years before new lows are hit and many years before the market bottoms. That's fine with me, I'm a patient man. And lots of good trading for traders, both long and short, in the meantime. Not only KM, but just about every other worthless bankrupt you can think off. The earlier conversation about personal income shows how it is overstated. IMO this misreading in income has fed into a misreading of savings - i.e. savings are not going up and real savings may even be negative at this moment. The much discussed 'investment' by J6P into the market the past few months appears then to be coming from borrowed money, and I think substantially most of it from mortgage refinancing. If my theory is right, when refis go to low levels we should see J6P disappear from the market. Of course this will be explained as a temporary loss of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 I never did learn anything about wedges and flags, are they important? only on even days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 only on even days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 I find patterns to be a waste of time. 50/50 odds of getting it right. Keep it simple, trend is down, when in doubt expect a bearish resolution. Open up the hood and see what's inside. http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_brdth.HTM Ouch, that's gonna hurt soon Trends are much more likely to continue than reverse. Leverage them and grow rich. Stop wasting time always looking for reversal turning points. I figured mytrack would be bankrupt by now....cant stand them. My account got wasted when they did the mytrade transfer a few years ago.....mytrade was down, I called in order to sell options because online order wouldnt go thru. He said no problem....then he sold, mytrade came back on and they double sold giving me a - position.....following day Dell was assigned to me and crashed that day down 3 bucks. Ended up down huge and was assigned the stock from owning puts originally.....another time bought options on Computer Associates and they ended up being some options on a company CA had bought instead. Worth 1/3rd the value...many others caught as well...options dove to 0...paperwork on all trades labeled as CA still......the play went correct and I got screwed there as well....I guess ole Barry recovered from his margin call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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