torah man Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 Was that the peak? Will it hold?? How fast will it drop from here? (that ought to get it started) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 more or less....probly....and in an aesthetically pleasing, mathematically perfect parabola. hopefully. not sure we'll get a drop that lasts straight through the holidays....but can't find a reason for january to be anything other than a stomach-in-the-throat free-fall shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 Every anal cyst wheeled out on Proctovision is comparing today to the post 1973-74 recession. How convenient - 73/74 was a short sharp recession followed by an equity market surge in 1975. But where are the similarities? 73-74 was the result of a massive surge in oil prices. Today's scenario is something entirely different. This is not a "garden variety" post-war recession. It a Hayekian recession! As the Dailyreckoning's Raymond Devoe explains. A Hayekian recession occurs: "after a central bank sets interest rates too low ? allowing credit to expand artificially. This lowers the "hurdle rate" for business return on fixed investment, causing businesses to overestimate the value of long-term investments. These miscalculations generate an investment-led boom, which becomes unsustainable because of eventual widespread overcapacity". He goes on to explain that "Hayekian recessions have taken longer to work out than the postwar U.S. variety" Don't be fooled - 2003 ain't going to be 1975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Gtnworse Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 Hey Guys, I hope everyone had a good holiday. In response to your opening questions, Torah man; 1) This was not the peak 2) Any downturn will be a correction that will be brief 3) Therefore it is not dropping very far, but may drop fast Here is a statement from the boys at Lowry's issued today; Richard Dickson, technical anal cyst at Lowry Research, feels there has yet to be any indications from price and volume activity that the market has reached a top. He acknowledges that his measure of demand, or "buying power," has been lagging of late, but he also pointed out that supply, or "selling pressure," has also declined. "Overall, this is a positive for the market as market tops are usually signaled by a surge in supply, which is clearly not the case at present," Dickson said in a note to clients. "In sum, while the backdrop of intermediate-term overbought indicators add an element of risk to the market, thus far these overbought readings have not been confirmed by negative price and volume activity." For those of you with bad memories, Lowrys indicated about 3 trading days after the October bottom that they believed that the rally had legs and could last as long as 6-8 weeks. I posted that information at that time and, not surprisingly, it was ignored since it did not fit into the "bearish scenario". You can do what you want with it again. You might also take note that the VIX is still at about 30, it got down to as low as 18 at the March top. The VXN is at 50, it got down to 36 at the March top. The P/C ratio is only .59. Given the above information you may, in fact, still choose to short this market right here. If you do I believe it will hand you your head. Finally give a look at what Bernie Schaeffer has to say in his recent commentary. By the way, he's bullish. http://schaeffersresearch.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 I have 958. So far it has not been hit (spx). It was close enough for me to sell my calls though. Bought March 950 puts. IMHO we are within 5% of a top. Maybe it was hit today, maybe it wasn't. We do nt know and niether to "they". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 GTNWorse: I tend to agree with you short term - we haven't seen the top yet. (Although I admit I am terrible at the short term gyrations). I think the MFs will throw everything at this market right up until year end. Hell they don't care. They have nothing to lose. It's other people's money and their bonuses are at stake. If it means buying NXTL or AMZN or some other "rotten egg" then so be it. This market has gone from "doom and gloom, 5 year lows etc" to "tech is back, record thanksgiving sales, consumer is alive and well etc". You picked it - so more power to you. But if I was you I would be standing close to the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 "For those of you with bad memories, Lowrys indicated about 3 trading days after the October bottom that they believed that the rally had legs and could last as long as 6-8 weeks." That's correct. As stoolies well know, Doc had turned extremely cautious by then. Now that it's 8 weeks later, the upside risk has dissipated. The SPX has moved 1% in the last 4 weeks. Doc loves people who can quote every other poodit out there, but have never looked at their own Anals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 2, 2002 Report Share Posted December 2, 2002 GTNWorse: I tend to agree with you short term - we haven't seen the top yet. (Although I admit I am terrible at the short term gyrations). I think the MFs will throw everything at this market right up until year end. Hell they don't care. They have nothing to lose. It's other people's money and their bonuses are at stake. If it means buying NXTL or AMZN or some other "rotten egg" then so be it. This market has gone from "doom and gloom, 5 year lows etc" to "tech is back, record thanksgiving sales, consumer is alive and well etc". You picked it - so more power to you. But if I was you I would be standing close to the door. That's the way I see it too. They are going to throw everything they and the Greenman have at this rally. They want to close 02 positive. Can't have another down year. Wall Street and maney managers commission and fees plus bonuses riding on a new bull market for 03. Pension funds, insurance companies, banks -- everyone is wired into the market and want it higher. A new bubble looks better to them than the alternatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 We got our bottom picker bulls and our top picker bears... I could care... It's academic if the top was achieved today at 954 or if it is 965... I'm not sure what paranoia is driving these scaredy-bears... I guess when we are back at 877 they will throw in their horns... Then if they can get the fence extracted from their asses, maybe they'll finally get short... just in time for the turn back up... This mornings opening was obviously a blow off top... if we are lucky enough to get another one, it's time to start putting some out there... IMO, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 Let's see if they can pull off 9... But when the "Greatest economic miracle in recorded history" doesn't show up next year then what? Game over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 The TRUTH is this RALLY has pissed everyone OFF with it's longevity! None of us have been right except that WE are smart enough to avoid major RISK at this point. The only PUNDIT that has been right is Bernie Schaeffer and he's still BULLISH (today calling for 480 OEX to be smashed on the upside) Prechter turned BEARISH today with stops so tight it's obvious he's not sure. After the reversal this morning I had some hopes this was over -but as usual it clawed it's way back into the close and the futures are a TON above FAIR VALUE at the moment if they hold up overnite this thing is going higher. My own sense is what I said yesterday "it just doesn't FEEL like a top" it is going to take an external event of some magnitude to turn this sumbitch. I made MONEY intraday today by shorting the spike at the open and by scalping KLAC. But aside from a few index puts under the market-I'm keeping my money on the hip! The manipulation intraday is AWESOME-just watch the buying come in whenever it's on the cusp of serious trouble. So in summing up-I agree with Butt and End at this point-we have to WAIT it out! Now GTN don't kid a kidder-you WERE RIGHT but YOU didn't GO LONG which means YOU weren't SURE-being right without making money often translates into "right Church-wrong PEW" Phat that news item on CNN disappeared from their site 30 minutes after my posting-interesting! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 ...But if I was you I would be standing close to the door. you beat me to it Butt. Right now its too late to go dong, too soon to short (kind of) so I'm watching. Like the Oct 9th area was a low risk dong opp, right now is a low risk short opp. I'm just waiting for technical breakdown. NOW BREAK DAMN IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 How about Lehman's Dan Niles! And his 180 Million computers that are 4 years old. I call this pseudo-analysis. Head line grabbing yes. But complete disinformation. Dan has been talking up semi-conductors forever (refer some of his 2000 recommendations). http://www.macobserver.com/news/00/may/000...plneutral.shtml What's more Lehman has an investment banking relationship with INTC. So if you believe anything out of Lehman's you are brave. Niles's view is that corporate's will lead the pick up in computer spending. Well if my firm is any indication that ain't happening yet. We have 5 floors and 2 are now completely empty - care of downsizing. So I don't think they are rushing out to buy computers. I am sure they would be happy to sell some of the ones sitting around What scares me about Dan is he is considered one of the good anal cysts. Clearly he is intelligent. But completely compromised. Given Intel has their mid quarter call on Thursday, maybe he knows something. My take is the stock has had a stellar rise on falling volume. It's only the massive gap from 27 to 22 that scares me. Maybe it will fill that first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 One last item-the eight consecutive up weeks we've had is a record for the ENTIRE Bull and subsequent CRASH-never, ever have their been 8 straight up weeks-Now you don't suppose the markets aren't FREE anymore and are being manipulated daily-Do ya?? NAH! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted December 3, 2002 Report Share Posted December 3, 2002 Fart is upwind tonight - agree completely. A TRIN of 0.1, followed by a brisk 20+ point SPX downmove, indicates strong resistance above and little buyside conviction. Sweef charted a small cap peak dated late last week. This is all topish to me. Doc's cycles aside for the moment, the market remains incredibly complacent in view of assured external risk (ie, war) soon. Dollar/Yen action is not good for the US market on either side of the trade. Widalldoorespekt, Mr. Gtnworse, your call may be rite but your data does not support your conclusion. I helped to wrestle down a psychotic/manic with a gun once- it turned out the gun was empty but the hand grenade inside the dude's pocket was quite real. As always, I am prepared for anything in this Mania Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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