dozer Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 Great expo on the fibs scott. tanks! One question tho...why do say that 1090 spooo invalidates HT's scenario? I don't see any connection. Spoos were a long way over 1090 3 yrs ago, and that doesn't invalidate HT. Matrix can bump the spoos to 1090 in little more than a day if they really put their mind to it...i.e. let a couple other plates fall for a week. I've never seen any connection between any particular index number and the HT scenario; which is all-encompassing in scope. Otherwise, your scenario makes great sense....as do 10 other DIFFERENT ones here this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 I'll be back in the VOiPs tomorrow if the jackals take the fish in a barrel bait agin. Trading free shares now. EGHT, DDDC, VOCL and ITXC. Middie Chems still climbing stealthily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 Anyone who tuned into crapvision on Friday and heard the nonstop bullhorning and cheerleading about the great economy and how everyone was out spending money had to know that the matrix was not going to let all that time and effort go to waste by not jamming the open on Monday. Everything is riding on selling people on the idea that they absolutely need to borrow and spend and that the world is one big good time party with no limits. We can have everything -- just listen to crapvision if you don't believe it is so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest libertas Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 Anyone who tuned into crapvision on Friday and heard the nonstop bullhorning and cheerleading about the great economy and how everyone was out spending money had to know that the matrix was not going to let all that time and effort go to waste by not jamming the open on Monday. Everything is riding on selling people on the idea that they absolutely need to borrow and spend and that the world is one big good time party with no limits. We can have everything -- just listen to crapvision if you don't believe it is so. Hussman: "Strength in GDP, Industrial Production, Non-farm Payrolls, Capacity Utilization, and the Purchasing Managers Index are all negatively correlated with changes in the stock market during the same quarter, and are even more negatively correlated with stock market changes over the following quarter. In contrast, strength in the stock market has a positive correlation with growth in all of these economic measures over the following quarter. In short, market action leads economic statistics, NOT the other way around. " Hussman Funds - Weekly Commentary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 Great expo on the fibs scott. tanks! One question tho...why do say that 1090 spooo invalidates HT's scenario? I don't see any connection. Spoos were a long way over 1090 3 yrs ago, and that doesn't invalidate HT. Matrix can bump the spoos to 1090 in little more than a day if they really put their mind to it...i.e. let a couple other plates fall for a week. I've never seen any connection between any particular index number and the HT scenario; which is all-encompassing in scope. Otherwise, your scenario makes great sense....as do 10 other DIFFERENT ones here this weekend! 1090 is actually just a pivot, IMO for the market, or hyper's scenario. The market will lead hyper. If it goes above 1090, Hyper's gloom and doom isn't going to happen. If it is below 1090, Hyper is in play. If the SP ran up to 2400, I'd probably find a "Hyper" pivot at that point. The only fault I find with Hyper's conclusions is his timeline, which he has always hedged on anyhow. Hyper can scream all he wants, but as long as the markets are above important pivots (960-980 was the prior pivot), the Fed's ability to reflate must be repspected. After 1090, my next pivot is tentatively 1130-1150 area. There will be fib cluster resistance levels all the way up. But as long as the SPX is below the trendline that started in 1974 and is currently at about 1075 or so on the monthly log charts, I'll look for short trades. This trendline should be at 1090 at the end of the month or so. When (IF) the SP jumps above the trendline, I'll switch to leaning long. As hard as it is to believe, the huge payout going forward is short. That is why it is so hard to stay or go short in this market. They are shaking all the bears out, which leads me to think we could have a MAJOR crash in the near future. Something on the order of what happened to HITK or JCOM or BSTE or BVF. All of those stocks are down 50% or more from their peaks, with very little opportunity to get in short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 The 500-point intraday rally in the Nickme tonight was obvious open desperation direct intervention by the Japanese government to prevent a meltdown after it gapped down 200 on the open. The U.S. market is in much better shape, in a solid uptrend, so no need for the U.S. Fed to resort to such embarrassingly obvious measures on Monday. The U.S. market will climb higher on its own without the Fed, just based on the holiday bullhorning. Time to blindly buy the open and go along for the ride. Gentlemen, grab your dongs. Or your ankles, if you're short (like me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 The 500-point intraday rally in the Nickme tonight was obvious open desperation direct intervention by the Japanese government to prevent a meltdown after it gapped down 200 on the open. The only thing that is *obvious* is dat all huge gap downs or sudden crashes will be bought - same as it ever was. Nottin new here. So many folks around here consider themselves to be some kinda 'contrarian' - yet never fade huge spikes down. Wonder why not....Hmmmm? Meanwhile, globex ES chart... Did I mention last week dat 1055~57 would be a level to keep a beady eye upon? I believe I did! Success! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 tanks for the reply scott. I don't think you really explained WHY the HT-scenario would be invalidated; but that's OK...I suppose it's the "dozer scenario" I'm really looking at. To me, the SM is just one little component of the overall US, and global, socio-economic picture; and a 50 point twitch this way or that, isn't significant. It really doesn't matter if the SPX goes up and up and up for the rest of the year. That isn't going to prevent a severe depression. The "reflation" you refer to and imply is working, is NOT working. The signs of failure are all around us; including the enormous UE, the reduced incomes, increasing cost of living, and the skyrocketing bankruptcies and defaults of all kinds. The faster they pump fake-money into the system, the more defaulted-bonds and bankruptcy-settlements there are to eat it up and make it go away. Good trading to all this week ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 1090 is actually just a pivot, IMO for the market, or hyper's scenario. The market will lead hyper. If it goes above 1090, Hyper's gloom and doom isn't going to happen. If it is below 1090, Hyper is in play. If the SP ran up to 2400, I'd probably find a "Hyper" pivot at that point. The only fault I find with Hyper's conclusions is his timeline, which he has always hedged on anyhow. Hyper can scream all he wants, but as long as the markets are above important pivots (960-980 was the prior pivot), the Fed's ability to reflate must be repspected. After 1090, my next pivot is tentatively 1130-1150 area. There will be fib cluster resistance levels all the way up. But as long as the SPX is below the trendline that started in 1974 and is currently at about 1075 or so on the monthly log charts, I'll look for short trades. This trendline should be at 1090 at the end of the month or so. When (IF) the SP jumps above the trendline, I'll switch to leaning long. As hard as it is to believe, the huge payout going forward is short. That is why it is so hard to stay or go short in this market. They are shaking all the bears out, which leads me to think we could have a MAJOR crash in the near future. Something on the order of what happened to HITK or JCOM or BSTE or BVF. All of those stocks are down 50% or more from their peaks, with very little opportunity to get in short. Scott is just giving me a hint when it is time to take a vacation... I hope it at least goes to 1080...That would be cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird D Durr Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 Keep awaking to the same nightmare of Sue Herrara giving me a lap dance.......... NOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!............................. Jam-A-Mania runnin' wild this first of the month..................... 2,000/10,000 here we come.......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 Maxxi KGC is a good stock but that news release you quoted is incorrect wherein they say they are the lowest in hedging at 2.2%-GG is totally unhedged as are several others-trade Safe! This is the smallest hedge among all N. American senior producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird D Durr Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 US $ just slipped below 90..................... THE END is sooner than later if the US$ gets/stays under 90 for any considerable period of time................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 US $ just slipped below 90..................... THE END is sooner than later if the US$ gets/stays under 90 for any considerable period of time................ US$ in the low 80s soon per this Eliot wave analysis.Wave Signals Commentary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 why it's heaven on earth! Stocks up 'round the world! Oil down 73 cents! Gold at $400--another huge bankruptcy in Japan and the Nikkei jumps 300 pts! Bullish dialogue has authority now! Finally Japan is gettting rid of their problems! This is the signal investors have been waiting 14 yrs to see!-[so spin the bulls] whoopeeeee! Buy another thousand! Ka-Ching! Ka-Ching! Yo seven! Baby needs a new Hummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2003 Report Share Posted December 1, 2003 All hail to Don Wolanchuk-waaaay back in 99 he called for a world boom with stocks and commods/especially gold "to da moon"! Gold(CMX) Feb 399.1 402.0 399.5 401.8 +3.8 12/1/2003 5:50 Silver(CMX) Mar 538.5 550.0 538.5 550.0 +11.8 12/1/2003 5:50 Platinum(NYM) Jan 769.0 773.8 769.0 773.0 +5.1 12/1/2003 5:46 Platinum(NYM) Jan 769.0 773.8 769.0 773.0 +5.1 12/1/2003 5:46 Palladium(NYME) Mar 187.00 189.00 187.00 187.50 -3.25 12/1/2003 5:48 Copper(CMX) Mar 94.90 95.40 94.90 95.35 +3.95 12/1/2003 5:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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