simple guy Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Doug Noland, the Credit Bubble guy at Prudent Bear, clearly is starting to change his tune... tonight he said he is opening up his eyes to the reliquification of the economy, and therefore he seems to be allowing for a possible big uptick on the economy that some aren't seeing... he thinks it all ends bad, but could postpone the day of reckoning.... you may want to read his diatribe tonight. FWIW, SG sold his Pru Bear fund early this past week, and moved the $$ into CPN at 3.40, sold at 4.07 for a 19% gain. Re-shuffled that same $$ into QQQ today at 26.05 for the next move up... I took the gloves off because it was time to start playing, and get off the bench on my IRA. ... more excerpts... Yet many foreign nameplates enjoy booming sales (indicative of a highly imbalanced Bubble economy). ?American Honda posted a new record for total vehicles and light truck sales in March?up 20.7%, and light truck sales reaching an all-time record of 47,049, up 41.8%.? ?Toyota Motor Sales USA?reported best-ever March sales of 165,081, and increase of 9.2% from last year?s record March?the Lexus Division enjoyed a strong March?? ?March Sales for the BMW Group were up 14 percent?? ?Mercedes-Benz USA reported the best first-quarter in company history?? ?Infinity, the luxury division of (Nissan), saw the best month ever in its 13-year history?? ?Kia set a first quarter sale record?? Hyundai saw March sales jump 20.3% y-o-y. Volvo sales were up 30% y-o-y, and Porsche 25.9%. ?Thanks to three consecutively strong sales months, Saab Cars USA reported sales of 10,885 in the first quarter ? the company?s best first-quarter sales in its 47-year history (up 19% to comparable y-o-y).? And for April, the Big Three announced aggressive incentives. GM?s new ?Zero to Sixty? incentive plan is called the ?most sweeping offer in its history.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Everybody has to be onboard before the next leg can begin :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Someone ACTUALLY believes we are going to 979?? I hope he is in his/her 20's and lives to be 90 and then maybe, just maybe......! Look April 2 was a Bradley turn for all we know it could be over now but like Piles I expect 850 first then a bounce to 897-909 tops-do you really want to be long for 31 points-me I'll just add on the way up for a 270 point DROP. 979 BWHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Once Iraq is "isolated" which means that the info coming out is totally US controled, Bush will declare the war over and Iraq liberated...even if the fighting continues, should happen soon... If not the market will go down. This weekend is critical... if the US loses the airport and the Iraqis brag, that will be a big blow... Only a few 100 soldiers and military vechicles made it there... this weekend should tell the tale... There are 600 embedded reporters in Iraq but there sure is not much coverage... New secular bull? I wish it were so...why do you think I say 11-15 months? It will take that long to finish most of you off and on the final plunge you will all be finished... the market will shut down and when It comes back your money will be gone... They can fake it all now... but they can't create consumers fast enough...Unless they start passing out credit cards in maternity wards... and what are the chances of that... I'm just not paying attention to the market as much lately... But nothing has changed... we are still rocketing to wild cornered animal stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird D Durr Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Brian4, AHHHHH....................a 270 point drop.................................Now you're talkin'................. Music to my ears..................... - Bird D. Durr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I remember when James Dale Davidson or Lord Rees Mogg (the guys who wrote several highly bearish books in the 90's) went bullish on the internets...I remember thinking, "Oh this is the top alright." I kinda feel the same way about Noland. He has been saying "How can this continue?" for week after week and I think he's tired and finally has capitulated. I ask you, if we couldn't top in the internets until the super-bears gave it up- how can the credit bubble blow without the credit bubble guy capitulating? So, Hypertiger might be right. So Prechter never capitulated...but he's gonna be waiting for Dow 400 for a LOOOOoooooong time. Heck, in twenty years MMM might be 400 all by itself. Anyway, Kudlow called the bottom in gold...Noland gone bullish. What to do? I know...what's Cramer doing? Let's just do the opposite and we'll surely make money. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Brian, cleanout your PM box buddy...its full! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chart Guru Doug Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Thanks SG for mentioning the clone chart. Here is a link to some of todays charts for chartsmarts. Todays ChartSmarts regards doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direwolf Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 SG is perma bear, and getting ready to go massively short, let me start with that. Now, SG still thinks we have some legs to finish C wave up. My topping day is April 9 intra-day. I like it....coincides with what I'm thinking...a blow-off top is imminent then we roll. Need to start phasing in some puts by wednesday. Have a killer weekend. direwolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Someone ACTUALLY believes we are going to 979?? I hope he is in his/her 20's and lives to be 90 and then maybe, just maybe......! Look April 2 was a Bradley turn for all we know it could be over now but like Piles I expect 850 first then a bounce to 897-909 tops-do you really want to be long for 31 points-me I'll just add on the way up for a 270 point DROP. 979 BWHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA! Trade Safe! b4 -- I have much respect for your opinions and ability, but I'd be careful about "misunderestimating" the size and scope of the liqidity flood and war victory euphoric buying panic about to happen. This may be the last good chance for da boyz to distribute tons and tons of crap paper that they have been sitting on. BB keeps referring to May as the time to go big time short. Until then, caution will serve you well. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I estimated a few 100 soldiers and vehicles buzzing around the airport... More like 4,000 and eighty tanks...from reports 1/3 of the 3rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oilman Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I am still in cash for now. I was thinking that this weekend will be significant as we dropped big twice now on Mondays. Well the last two and this coming Monday might be the big blow off top everyone is talking about. I will be legging in my shorts starting Monday and through out next week. It is amazing to see a lot of people agreeing on the blowoff top, but to what degree is another thing. Oilman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Been shopping for a new trading platform/broker. Leaning towards Tradestation. Understand its highly flexible w/ regards to programming indicators. Must have scalable charts and ability to display centered (lagged) moving averages with offsets. Any advice would be appreciated. Tanks Just noticed your signature. First time I noticed something here in Indonesia I laughed but maybe I was putting the cart before the horse. Here Kerapu pronouced Cra-poo is the grouper and a favourite edible. No doubt that's where the Dutch got the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I see everyone is running scared of the COT reports. Started the week off (March 31) with comments from Bob Carver. The Commitment of Traders Report is our window on the actions of these commercial interests. The government requires them to disclose their positions for the world to see. On Friday afternoon, the latest report ? which reflects positions held as of the close Tuesday ? showed commercials were still net short the market, although they have been doing a bit of covering in the last couple of weeks. In the S&P 500, they are net short 188,439 emini contracts, while in the NASDAQ-100, they are net short 83,428 emini contracts. Some subscribers have emailed us claiming that the commercials had moved to net long the stock market, but they had failed to take into consideration positions in the emini contracts ? commercials have been shifting into the eminis because of great liquidity in that market and the fact that they trade 23? hours per day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon. ----- Let's drag out some 3 day bearish indications or 5 day bearish indications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Commercials are like huge steamships...it takes a long time to turn around and is done so in a huge radius hence they tend to switch way before a significant turn in market. Its quite possible they are slowly turning the boat for a major rally coming off a HUGE bottom, neither of which have yet occurred. No commercials being short means no short covering (buying) power, means no support under this PIG once top is in and decline is underway. Top is very close at hand. I'm already positioned...not into splitting hairs. Doc see this as a huge negative for the market in the near term, how they act on the decline and in the future is the real tell. He also doesn't see commercials necessarily as "smart money" anyway. The "end" to the war is going to be a "pop, flop, and drop" anti-climatic affair. True the "fix is in", too bad it has the lifetime of a gnat. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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